Elizabeth E. Ebert

Comparison of Near-Real-Time Precipitation Estimates from Satellite Observations and Numerical Models

An increasing number of satellite-based rainfall products are now available in near–real time over the Internet to help meet the needs of weather forecasters and climate scientists, as well as a wide range of decision makers, including hydrologists, agriculturalists, emergency managers, and industrialists. Many of these satellite products are so newly developed that a comprehensive evaluation has not yet been undertaken. This article provides potential users of short-interval satellite rainfall estimates with information on the accuracy of such estimates. Since late 2002 the authors have been performing daily validation and intercomparisons of several operational satellite rainfall retrieval algorithms over Australia, the United States, and northwestern Europe. Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts from four numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are also included for comparison. Synthesis of four years of daily rainfall validation results shows that the satellite-derived estimates of precip...

Sea ice-albedo climate feedback mechanism

Abstract The sea ice-albedo feedback mechanism over the Arctic Ocean multiyear sea ice is investigated by conducting a series of experiments using several one-dimensional models of the coupled sea ice-atmosphere system. In its simplest form, ice-albedo feedback is thought to be associated with a decrease in the areal cover of snow and ice and a corresponding increase in the surface temperature, further decreasing the areal cover of snow and ice. It is shown that the sea ice-albedo feedback can operate even in multiyear pack ice, without the disappearance of this ice, associated with internal processes occurring within the multiyear ice pack (e.g., duration of the snow cover, ice thickness, ice distribution, lead fraction, and melt pond characteristics). The strength of the ice-albedo feedback mechanism is compared for several different thermodynamic sea ice models: a new model that includes ice thickness distribution, the Ebert and Curry model, the Maykut and Untersteiner model, and the Semtner level-3 an...

An intermediate one‐dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model for investigating ice‐atmosphere interactions

A one-dimensional thermodynamic model of sea ice is presented that focuses on those features that are most relevant to interactions with the atmosphere, namely the surface albedo and leads. It includes a surface albedo parameterization that interacts strongly with the state of the surface, and explicitly includes meltwater ponds. The lead parameterization contains a minimum lead fraction, absorption of solar radiation in and below the leads, lateral accretion and ablation of the sea ice, and a prescribed sea ice divergence rate. The model performed well in predicting the current climatic sea ice conditions in the central Arctic when compared with observations and other theoretical calculations. Results of parameter sensitivity tests produced large equilibrium ice thicknesses for small values of ice divergence or large values of minimum lead fraction as a result of positive feedback mechanisms involving cooling of water in the leads. The ice thickness was also quite sensitive to the meltwater runoff fraction and moderately sensitive to the other parameters in the melt pond parameterization, a result of the strong dependence of the surface albedo, and hence the net flux, on the surface conditions. To further investigate the physical interactions and internal feedback processes governing the sea ice-lead system, sensitivity tests were also performed for each of the external forcing variables. The models equilibrium sea ice thickness was extremely sensitive to changes in the downward longwave and shortwave fluxes and atmospheric temperature and humidity, moderately sensitive to the value of the ocean heat flux, and insensitive to values of wind speed, snowfall, and rainfall in the immediate vicinity of the baseline forcing, although significant changes in thickness occurred for larger variations in wind speed and snowfall. Four important positive feedback loops were identified and described: (1) the surface albedo feedback, (2) the conduction feedback, (3) the lead solar flux feedback, and (4) the lead fraction feedback. The destabilizing effects of these positive feedbacks were mitigated by two strong negative feedbacks: (1) the outgoing longwave flux feedback, and (2) the turbulent flux feedback. Considering the strong influence which sea ice has on global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, it is essential that climate models be able to treat these feedback processes appropriately.

A parameterization of ice cloud optical properties for climate models

We present a new parameterization of the optical properties of ice crystal clouds which is suitable for use in climate models. Five spectral intervals in the shortwave and five intervals in the infrared are employed, with the ice cloud optical properties parameterized in terms of ice water path (IWP) and the effective radius (re) of the ice crystal size distribution. The parameterization thus allows the flexibility of varying the ice water path and effective radius independently of each other. The parameterized optical properties are used to calculate the bulk reflectivity, transmissivity, and emissivity for cirrus clouds with realistic ranges of IWP and re. For a given change in cloud optical depth a change in re alone is more effective than a change in IWP alone in altering the shortwave reflectivity and therefore in altering the strength of the cloud albedo feedback.

Annual Cycle of Radiation Fluxes over the Arctic Ocean: Sensitivity to Cloud Optical Properties

Abstract The relationship between cloud optical properties and the radiative fluxes over the Arctic Ocean is explored by conducting a series of modeling experiments. The annual cycle of arctic cloud optical properties that are required to reproduce both the outgoing radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere as determined from satellite observations and the available determinations of surface radiative fluxes are derived. Existing data on cloud fraction and cloud microphysical properties are utilized. Four types of cloud are considered: low stratus clouds, midlevel clouds, cirrus clouds, and wintertime ice crystal precipitation. Internally consistent annual cycles of surface temperature, surface albedo, cloud fraction and cloud optical properties, components of surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes, and cloud radiative forcing are presented. The modeled total cloud optical depth (weighted by cloud fraction) ranges from a low value in winter of 2 to a high summertime value of 8. Infrared emmiss...

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods

Abstract Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because of the increased small-scale variability so that the true quality of the forecasts is not always characterized well. As a result, numerous new methods for verifying these forecasts have been proposed. These new methods can mostly be classified into two overall categories: filtering methods and displacement methods. The filtering methods can be further delineated into neighborhood and scale separation, and the displacement methods can be divided into features based and field deformation. Each method gives considerably more information than the traditional scores, but it is not clear which method(s) should be used for which purpose. A verification methods intercomparison project has been established in order to glean a better understanding of the proposed me...

Performance of Satellite Rainfall Estimation Algorithms during TOGA COARE

Abstract Over 50 satellite rainfall algorithms were evaluated for a 5° square region in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean during TOGA COARE, November 1992–February 1993. These satellite algorithms used GMS VIS/IR, AVHRR, and SSM/I data to estimate rainfall on both instantaneous and monthly timescales. Validation data came from two calibrated shipboard Doppler radars measuring rainfall every 10 min. There was large variation among algorithms in the magnitude of the satellite-estimated rainfall, but the patterns of rainfall were similar among algorithm types. Compared to the radar observations, most of the satellite algorithms overestimated the amount of rain falling in the region, typically by about 30%. Patterns of monthly observed rainfall were well represented by the satellite algorithms, with correlation coefficients with the observations ranging from 0.86 to 0.90 for algorithms using geostationary data and 0.69 to 0.86 for AVHRR and SSM/I algorithms when validated on a 0.5° grid. Patterns of instan...

Results from the GPCP Algorithm Intercomparison Programme

Abstract Three algorithm intercomparison experiments have recently been conducted as part of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project with the goal of (a) assessing the skill of current satellite rainfall algorithms, (b) understanding the differences between them, and (c) moving toward improved algorithms. The results of these experiments are summarized and intercompared in this paper. It was found that the skill of satellite rainfall algorithms depends on the regime being analyzed, with algorithms producing very good results in the tropical western Pacific and over Japan and its surrounding waters during summer, but relatively poor rainfall estimates over western Europe during late winter. Monthly rainfall was estimated most accurately by algorithms using geostationary infrared data, but algorithms using polar data [Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/1)l were also able to produce good monthly rainfall estimates when data from two satellites wore availabl...

The WGNE Assessment of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Abstract Twenty-four-hour and 48-h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from 11 operational numerical weather prediction models have been verified for a 4-yr period against rain gauge observations over the United States, Germany, and Australia to assess their skill in predicting the occurrence and amount of daily precipitation. Model QPFs had greater skill in winter than in summer, and greater skill in midlatitudes than in Tropics, where they performed only marginally better than “ persistence.” The best agreement among models, as well as the best ability to discriminate raining areas, occurred for a low rain threshold of 1–2 mm d−1. In contrast, the skill for forecasts of rain greater than 20 mm d−1 was generally quite low, reflecting the difficulty in predicting precisely when and where heavy rain will fall. The location errors for rain systems, determined using pattern matching with the observations, were typically about 100 km for 24-h forecasts, with smaller errors occurring for the heaviest r...

Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Models over Australia

Abstract Real-time gridded 24-h quantitative precipitation forecasts from seven operational NWP models are verified over the Australian continent. All forecasts have been mapped to a 1° latitude–longitude grid and have been verified against an operational daily rainfall analysis, mapped to the same grid. The verification focuses on two large subregions: the northern tropical monsoon regime and the southeastern subtropical regime. Statistics are presented of the bias score, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio for a range of rainfall threshold values. The basic measure of skill used in this study, however, is the Hanssen and Kuipers (HK) score and its two components: accuracy for events and accuracy for nonevents. For both regimes the operational models tend to overestimate rainfall in summer and to underestimate it in winter. In the southeastern region the models have HK scores ranging from 0.5 to 0.7, and easily outperform a forecast of persistence. Thus for the current operational NWP models,...