Eric P. Salathé

A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations.

This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential sensitivity of U.S. regional ozone (O3) concentrations to global climate change (ca. 2050). This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions among climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality. The ultimate goal is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential effects of global change on air quality, including O3 The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment. The aim in this first phase was to consider the effects of climate change alone on air quality, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the differe...

Radiance and Jacobian Intercomparison of Radiative Transfer Models Applied to HIRS and AMSU Channels

The goals of this study are the evaluation of current fast radiative transfer models (RTMs) and line-by-line (LBL) models. The intercomparison focuses on the modeling of 11 representative sounding channels routinely used at numerical weather prediction centers: 7 HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Sounder) and 4 AMSU (advanced microwave sounding unit) channels. Interest in this topic was evident by the participation of 24 scientists from 16 institutions. An ensemble of 42 diverse atmospheres was used and results compiled for 19 infrared models and 10 microwave models, including several LBL RTMs. For the first time, not only radiances but also Jacobians (of temperature, water vapor, and ozone) were compared to various LBL models for many channels. In the infrared, LBL models typically agree to within 0.05-0.15 K (standard deviation) in terms of top-of-the-atmosphere brightness temperature (BT). Individual differences up to 0.5 K still exist, systematic in some channels, and linked to the type of atmosphere in others. The best fast models emulate LBL BTs to within 0.25 K, but no model achieves this desirable level of success for all channels. The ozone modeling is particularly challenging. In the microwave, fast models generally do quite well against the LBL model to which they were tuned. However, significant differences were noted among LBL models. Extending the intercomparison to the Jacobians proved very useful in detecting subtle or more obvious modeling errors. In addition, total and single gas optical depths were calculated, which provided additional insight on the nature of differences.

Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming

[1] Recent global climate model simulations for the IPCC Fourth Assessment report show a realistic North Pacific storm track and Aleutian Low for present-day climate conditions. Under climate change, the storm track and Aleutian Low move northward and intensify. These changes shift precipitation northward along the Pacific coast of North America. In particular, precipitation is intensified over the Pacific Northwest. Results from a statistical downscaling model suggest that precipitation may become more intense both due to the increased frequency of large-scale storms and duetochangesintheinteractionofthesestormswiththelocal terrain. Citation: Salathe ´, E. P., Jr. (2006), Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882.

A biomechanical model of the foot

The foot is modeled as a statically indeterminate structure supporting its load at the heads of the five metatarsals and the tuberosity of the calcaneous. The distribution of support is determined through an analysis of the deformations caused in the structure as a result of the forces at these locations. The analysis includes the effect of the plantar aponeurosis and takes into account the deformation of the metatarsals and bending of the joints. A parametric study is presented to illustrate the behavior of the solution under a broad range of conditions.

An intercomparison of radiation codes for retrieving upper-tropospheric humidity in the 6.3-μm band: A report from the first GVaP workshop

Abstract An intercomparison of radiation codes used in retrieving upper–tropospheric humidity (UTH) from observations in the n2 (6.3 mm) water vapor absorption band was performed. This intercomparison is one part of a coordinated effort within the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Water Vapor Project to assess our ability to monitor the distribution and variations of upper–tropospheric moisture from spaceborne sensors. A total of 23 different codes, ranging from detailed line–by–line (LBL) models, to coarser–resolution narrowband (NB) models, to highly parameterized single–band (SB) models participated in the study. Forward calculations were performed using a carefully selected set of temperature and moisture profiles chosen to be representative of a wide range of atmospheric conditions. The LBL model calculations exhibited the greatest consistency with each other, typically agreeing to within 0.5 K in terms of the equivalent blackbody brightness temperature(Tb). The majority of NB and SB models ag...

ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Surface temperature, precipitation, specific humidity and wind anomalies associated with the warm and cold phases of ENSO simulated by WRF and HadRM are examined for the present and future decades. WRF is driven by ECHAM5 and CCSM3, respectively, and HadRM is driven by HadCM3. For the current decades, all simulations show some capability in resolving the observed warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns over the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for warm and cold ENSO. Differences in the regional simulations originate primarily from the respective driving fields. For the future decades, the warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns in association with ENSO are still represented in ECHAM5-WRF and HadRM. However, there are indications of changes in the ENSO teleconnection patterns for CCSM3-WRF in the future, with wet anomalies dominating in the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for both warm and cold ENSO, in contrast to the canonical patterns of precipitation anomalies. Interaction of anomalous wind flow with local terrain plays a critical role in the generation of anomalous precipitation over the western U.S. Anomalous dry conditions are always associated with anomalous airflow that runs parallel to local mountains and wet conditions with airflow that runs perpendicular to local mountains. Future changes in temperature and precipitation associated with the ENSO events in the regional simulations indicate varying responses depending on the variables examined as well as depending on the phase of ENSO.

THE FOOT AS A SHOCK ABSORBER

A mathematical analysis of the deformation of the foot is developed to determine the role that stretch of ligaments and tendons plays in absorbing shock following impact. Our analysis is based on an anatomical biomechanical model that includes each of the bones of the foot. We calculate the time course of the deflection of the joints and the elongation of the ligaments and tendons and determine the ground reaction force acting on the heel. Quasi-linear viscoelastic theory is used for soft tissue constitutive relationships. With biomechanical data selected from the literature, we obtain a vertical force impact peak of 8000 N, occurring at 16 ms following heel strike. This is of higher magnitude and shorter duration than is found experimentally, as is to be expected, since we did not include the heel pad in our model and we assumed that the impact surface was ideally rigid.

Present-day and future climate pathways affecting Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound, WA, USA

This study uses a mechanistic modeling approach to evaluate the effects of various climate pathways on the proliferative phase of the toxin-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium in Puget Sound, WA, USA. Experimentally derived Alexandrium growth responses to temperature and salinity are combined with simulations of the regional climate and Salish Sea hydrology to investigate future changes in the timing, duration, and extent of blooms. Coarse-grid (100-200km) global climate model ensemble simulations of the SRES A1B emissions scenario were regionally downscaled to a 12-km grid using the Weather Research and Forecasting model for the period 1969-2069. These results were used to: (1) analyze the future potential changes and variability of coastal upwelling winds, and (2) provide forcing fields to a Regional Ocean Model System used to simulate the circulation of the Salish Sea, including Puget Sound, and the coastal ocean. By comparing circa-1990 and circa-2050 climate scenarios for the environmental conditions that promote Alexandrium blooms, we disentangle the effects of three climate pathways: (1) increased local atmospheric heating, (2) changing riverflow magnitude and timing, and (3) changing ocean inputs associated with changes in upwelling-favorable winds. Future warmer sea surface temperatures in Puget Sound from increased local atmospheric heating increase the maximum growth rates that can be attained by Alexandrium during the bloom season as well as the number of days with conditions that are favorable for bloom development. This could lead to 30 more days a year with bloom-favorable conditions by 2050. In contrast, changes in surface salinity arising from changes in the timing of riverflow have a negligible effect on Alexandrium growth rates, and the behavior of the coastal inputs in the simulations suggests that changes in local upwelling will not have major effects on sea surface temperature or salinity or Alexandrium growth rates in Puget Sound.

Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers

The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRFE), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects of future anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRFE. For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995–2004) and future (2045–2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAFC or CAFCB when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRFEC was calculated (RRFEC = RRFE × CAFC). In general, RRFEC > RRFE, which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRFE than does future climate change itself. The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NOX = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NOX limited show a decrease in ozone and RRFEC, while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRFEC. Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAFCB. Implications: We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of climate change on ozone. The findings of this work suggest that in some geographic regions, climate change has the potential to negate decreases in surface ozone concentrations that would otherwise be achieved through ozone mitigation strategies. In regions of high biogenic VOC emissions relative to anthropogenic NOX emissions, the impact of climate change is somewhat reduced, while the opposite is true in regions of high anthropogenic NOX emissions relative to biogenic VOC emissions. Further, different future climate realizations are shown to impact ozone in different ways.

An application of beam theory to determine the stress and deformation of long bones

We present a generalized beam theory in which deformation and load are determined simultaneously, in order to analyze statically indeterminant problems involving long bones. We regard a long bone as a beam curved in three dimensions for which the cross-sectional properties vary continuously along its length. The theory is used to determine the force, moment, deflection and twist along the fifth metatarsal when it is subjected to both a pointwise and a distributed load.