Evangelos Koutronas

Savings Adequacy Assessment: The Case of Malaysian Employees Provident Fund Members

This study examines the potential consequences of early withdrawals from the Malaysian Employees Provident Fund in patterns of savings adequacy by studying the impact of house purchase on household lifecycle consumption. The authors develop an overlapping generations model of a small open economy where investment is available to capital, housing, and financial instruments. Housing is modelled as an asset subject of transaction costs. In equilibrium setting, the empirical estimation of exogenous system parameters sets the optimal levels of consumption and savings. The authors perform empirical analysis by taking into consideration four different scenarios: different employment periods (18-55 vs. 25-55), different retirement periods (55-65 vs. 55-75 vs. 55-85), housing vs. non-housing consumption, and theoretical vs actual contribution rates. Actuarial evaluation shows that low-income employees can have sufficient income to meet their retirement needs in the absence of housing consumption. Policy directions are also discussed.

The Mega Distributed Lag Model

This paper attempts to describe the graphical behavior of the distributed lag model in an infinite coordinate space. The “mega distributed lag model” (MDL) is a mathematical framework that can examine the simultaneous interrelationships between all involved variables. The multidimensional graphical setting simultaneously reveals all non-linear exposure — response dependencies and delayed effects between lagged and dependent variables — which two-dimensional figures overwhelmingly fail to capture. Under the Omnia Mobilis assumption, each distribution lag function is indexed with respect to time and space. The Mega distributed lag model observes multiple trends in full motion, the final output (determinant) of which is called “the JIM-coefficient”. Hence, this paper tries to analyze different approaches of lag distribution models that can help in the construction of our new model. The mega distributed lag model (MDL) is moving from the uses of the classic 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional graphical modeling to a multidimensional graphical modeling in Econometrics. Finally, this model is an extension of those explored earlier in the field of Econographicology.

Cost estimation and planning for HIV/AIDS oral healthcare services: a Malaysian experiment

Background Reuters reported that 8400 HIV cases were detected in the voluntary screening of drug addicts in Harm Reduction Programmes, and screening in prison and Narcotics Rehabilitation Centers in 2011. However, dental treatment for HIV inmates is highly constrained by high uncertainty resulting from the changes of epidemic profile after receiving medical treatment, relative inadequacy of dental treatment and rules and regulations. Thus institutional HIV dental care cost could pose challenges to government healthcare expenditure. Methods The marginal cost for dental treatment is estimated based on the case scenario of prison X in Malaysia. Based on literature review and economic reasoning, an integrated cost planning model is formed to address the current needs in cost planning. Results The marginal cost for prison dental treatment is estimated to increase by at least 3 folds for prevalence cases and by at least 7 folds for surveillance case in short run. The cost pyramid is formed with the base of cost-consequences, cost efficiency and cost effectiveness planning followed by cost benefit and financial risk planning at the second layer, and cost utility planning at the peak layer. All cost planning components are integrated vertically and horizontally. Conclusion HIV dental care costs for inmates will be at the expense of government revenue if the increased marginal cost is above the average cost. Therefore, cost estimation coupled with the integrated cost planning model is essential for evaluation, monitoring and budget allocation enhancement.