F. Sassi

Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing

More Than the Sum of the Parts The radiative output of the Sun varies distinctly with the 11-year cycle of sunspots, although the change in energy output is small—less than a tenth of a percent in magnitude. Nevertheless, that small variation produces changes in sea surface temperatures two or three times as large as it should, and the mechanism by which this occurs has remained unclear. Meehl et al. (p. 1114; see the news story by Kerr) employ three global, coupled climate models to simulate this phenomenon. Two mechanisms appear to act in conjunction to cause this ocean response: a change in the abundance of stratospheric ozone owing to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing; and a coupled surface ocean-atmosphere response. This combination of effects enhances precipitation maxima, reduces low-latitude cloud cover, and lowers the temperature of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, resulting in the larger warm-to-cold variation. A combination of mechanisms explains the large response of sea surface temperatures caused by the 11-year solar cycle. One of the mysteries regarding Earth’s climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together. We show that the two mechanisms act together to enhance the climatological off-equatorial tropical precipitation maxima in the Pacific, lower the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle, and reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface.

Chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes

The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 6 0.07 K decade 21 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade 21 at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twentyfirst century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces a westward acceleration of the lower-stratospheric wind over the Antarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson

Tropospheric Precursors of Anomalous Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortices

Regional extratropical tropospheric variability in the North Pacific and eastern Europe is well correlated with variability in the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in both the ECMWF reanalysis record and in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. To explain this correlation, the link between stratospheric vertical Eliassen‐Palm flux variability and tropospheric variability is analyzed. Simple reasoning shows that variability in the North Pacific and eastern Europe can deepen or flatten the wintertime tropospheric stationary waves, and in particular its wavenumber-1 and -2 components, thus providing a physical explanation for the correlation between these regions and vortex weakening. These two pathways begin to weaken the upper stratospheric vortex nearly immediately, with a peak influence apparent after a lag of some 20 days. The influence then appears to propagate downward in time, as expected from wave‐mean flow interaction theory. These patterns are influenced by ENSO and October Eurasian snow cover. Perturbations in the vortex induced by the two regions add linearly. These two patterns and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are linearly related to 40% of polar vortex variability during winter in the reanalysis record.

Assessing and Understanding the Impact of Stratospheric Dynamics and Variability on the Earth System

New modeling efforts will provide unprecedented opportunities to harness our knowledge of the stratosphere to improve weather and climate prediction.

Thermosphere extension of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

[1]xa0In atmospheric and space environment studies it is key to understand and to quantify the coupling of atmospheric regions and the solar impacts on the whole atmosphere system. There is thus a need for a numerical model that encompasses the whole atmosphere and can self-consistently simulate the dynamic, physical, chemical, radiative, and electrodynamic processes that are important for the Sun-Earth system. This is the goal for developing the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). In this work, we report the development and preliminary validation of the thermospheric extension of WACCM (WACCM-X), which extends from the Earths surface to the upper thermosphere. The WACCM-X uses the finite volume dynamical core from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model and includes an interactive chemistry module resolving most known neutral chemistry and major ion chemistry in the middle and upper atmosphere, and photolysis and photoionization. Upper atmosphere processes, such as nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium, radiative transfer, auroral processes, ion drag, and molecular diffusion of major and minor species, have been included in the model. We evaluate the model performance by examining the quantities essential for the climate and weather of the upper atmosphere: the mean compositional, thermal, and wind structures from the troposphere to the upper thermosphere and their variability on interannual, seasonal, and daily scales. These quantities are compared with observational and previous model results.

A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations

The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.

Role of the QBO in modulating the influence of the 11 year solar cycle on the atmosphere using constant forcings

We present a set of six 20 year experiments made with a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model that incorporates the atmosphere from the surface to the lower thermosphere. The response of the middle atmosphere to the 11 year solar cycle, its impact on the troposphere, and especially the role of an externally prescribed stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is investigated with NCARs Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3). The model experiments use either fixed solar cycle inputs or fixed solar cycle together with prescribed QBO phase. The annual mean solar response in temperature and ozone in the upper stratosphere is in qualitative agreement with other modeling and observational studies and does not depend on the presence of the imposed QBO. However, the solar response in the middle to lower stratosphere differs significantly for the two QBO phases. During solar maxima a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation with relative downwelling, warming, and enhanced ozone occurs in the tropical lower stratosphere during QBO east conditions, while a stronger circulation, cooling, and decreased ozone exists during QBO west conditions. The net ozone increase during QBO east is the combined result of production and advection, whereas during QBO west the effects cancel each other and result in little net ozone changes. Especially during Southern Hemisphere late winter to early spring, the solar response at polar latitudes switches sign between the two QBO phases and qualitatively confirms observations and other recent model studies. During a poleward downward modulation of the polar night jet and a corresponding modulation of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in time, solar signals are detected all the way down to the extratropical troposphere. Possible limitations of the model experiments with respect to the fixed solar cycle conditions or the prescribed QBO phases, as well as the constant sea surface temperatures, are discussed.

The neutral dynamics during the 2009 sudden stratosphere warming simulated by different whole atmosphere models

The present study compares simulations of the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) from four different whole atmosphere models. The models included in the comparison are the Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy, Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere, Whole Atmosphere Model, and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extended version (WACCM-X). The comparison focuses on the zonal mean, planetary wave, and tidal variability in the middle and upper atmosphere during the 2009 SSW. The model simulations are constrained in the lower atmosphere, and the simulated zonal mean and planetary wave variability is thus similar up to ∼1 hPa (50 km). With the exception of WACCM-X, which is constrained up to 0.002 hPa (92 km), the models are unconstrained at higher altitudes leading to considerable divergence among the model simulations in the mesosphere and thermosphere. We attribute the differences at higher altitudes to be primarily due to different gravity wave drag parameterizations. In the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, we find both similarities and differences among the model simulated migrating and nonmigrating tides. The migrating diurnal tide (DW1) is similar in all of the model simulations. The model simulations reveal similar temporal evolution of the amplitude and phase of the migrating semidiurnal tide (SW2); however, the absolute SW2 amplitudes are significantly different. Through comparison of the zonal mean, planetary wave, and tidal variability during the 2009 SSW, the results of the present study provide insight into aspects of the middle and upper atmosphere variability that are considered to be robust features, as well as aspects that should be considered with significant uncertainty.

Ionosphere variability during the 2009 SSW: Influence of the lunar semidiurnal tide and mechanisms producing electron density variability

To investigate ionosphere variability during the 2009 sudden stratosphere warming (SSW), we present simulation results that combine the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extended version and the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). The simulations reveal notable enhancements in both the migrating semidiurnal solar (SW2) and lunar (M2) tides during the SSW. The SW2 and M2 amplitudes reach ∼50u2009mu2009s−1 and ∼40u2009mu2009s−1, respectively, in zonal wind at E region altitudes. The dramatic increase in the M2 at these altitudes influences the dynamo generation of electric fields, and the importance of the M2 on the ionosphere variability during the 2009 SSW is demonstrated by comparing simulations with and without the M2. TIME-GCM simulations that incorporate the M2 are found to be in good agreement with Jicamarca Incoherent Scatter Radar vertical plasma drifts and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations of the maximum F region electron density. The agreement with observations is worse if the M2 is not included in the simulation, demonstrating that the lunar tide is an important contributor to the ionosphere variability during the 2009 SSW. We additionally investigate sources of the F region electron density variability during the SSW. The primary driver of the electron density variability is changes in electric fields. Changes in meridional neutral winds and thermosphere composition are found to also contribute to the electron density variability during the 2009 SSW. The electron density variability for the 2009 SSW is therefore not solely due to variability in electric fields as previously thought.

On the day‐to‐day variation of the equatorial electrojet during quiet periods

It has been known for a long time that the equatorial electrojet varies from day to day even when solar and geomagnetic activities are very low. The quiet time day-to-day variation is considered to be due to irregular variability of the neutral wind, but little is known about how variable winds drive the electrojet variability. We employ a numerical model introduced by Liu et al. (2013), which takes into account weather changes in the lower atmosphere and thus can reproduce ionospheric variability due to forcing from below. The simulation is run for May and June 2009. Constant solar and magnetospheric energy inputs are used so that day-to-day changes will arise only from lower atmospheric forcing. The simulated electrojet current shows day-to-day variability of ±25%, which produces day-to-day variations in ground level geomagnetic perturbations near the magnetic equator. The current system associated with the day-to-day variation of the equatorial electrojet is traced based on a covariance analysis. The current pattern reveals return flow at both sides of the electrojet, in agreement with those inferred from ground-based magnetometer data in previous studies. The day-to-day variation in the electrojet current is compared with those in the neutral wind at various altitudes, latitudes, and longitudes. It is found that the electrojet variability is dominated by the zonal wind at 100–120 km altitudes near the magnetic equator. These results suggest that the response of the zonal polarization electric field to variable zonal winds is the main source of the day-to-day variation of the equatorial electrojet during quiet periods.