Rolando R. Garcia

Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past

Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.

The role of aerosol variations in anthropogenic ozone depletion at northern midlatitudes

Aerosol surface area distributions inferred from satelliteborne 1-μm extinction measurements are used as input to a two-dimensional model to study the effects of heterogeneous chemistry upon anthropogenic ozone depletion at northern midlatitudes. It is shown that short-term (interannual) and longer-term (decadal) changes in aerosols very likely played a substantial role along with trends in anthropogenic chlorine and bromine in both triggering the ozone losses observed at northern midlatitudes in the early 1980s and increasing the averaged long-term ozone depletions of the past decade or so. The use of observed aerosol distributions enhances the calculated ozone depletion due to halogen chemistry below about 25 km over much of the past decade, including many periods not generally thought to be affected by volcanic activity. Direct observations (especially the relationships of NO X /NO Y and ClO/Cl y ratios to aerosol content) confirm the key aspects of the model chemistry that is responsible for this behavior and demonstrate that aerosol changes alone are not a mechanism for ozone losses in the absence of anthropogenic halogen inputs to the stratosphere. It is also suggested that aerosol-induced ozone changes could be confused with 11-year solar cycle effects in some statistical analyses, resulting in an overestimate of the trends ascribed to solar activity. While the timing of the observed ozone changes over about the past 15 years is in remarkable agreement with the model predictions that explicitly include observed aerosol changes, their magnitude is about 50% larger than calculated. Possible chemical and dynamical causes of this discrepancy are explored. On the basis of this work, it is shown that the timing and magnitude of future ozone losses at midlatitudes in the northern hemisphere are likely to be strongly dependent upon volcanic aerosol variations as well as on future chlorine and bromine loading.

On the role of iodine in ozone depletion

Ozone depletions in the lower stratosphere outside of polar regions are difficult to explain using only local chlorine and bromine chemistry. We speculate that iodine chemistry in combination with trends in anthropogenic chlorine and bromine may also be a factor in determining the widespread current depletion of lower stratospheric ozone. We also speculate on a related role for iodine in the sudden springtime surface ozone loss observed in the Arctic.

Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

[1] Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/ decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHGinduced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lowerstratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Clynear 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease

A new numerical model of the middle atmosphere. 2: Ozone and related species

A new two-dimensional model with detailed photochemistry is presented. The model includes descriptions of planetary wave and gravity wave propagation and dissipation to characterize the wave forcing and associated mixing in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Such a representation allows for explicit calculation of the regions of strong mixing in the middle atmosphere required for accurate simulation of trace gas transport. The new model also includes a detailed description of photochemical processes in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The downward transport of H2, H2O, and NOy from the mesosphere to the stratosphere is examined, and it is shown that mesospheric processes can influence the distributions of these chemical species in polar regions. For HNO3 we also find that small concentrations of liquid aerosols above 30 km could play a major role in determining the abundance in polar winter at high latitudes. The model is also used to examine the chemical budget of ozone in the midlatitude stratosphere and to set constraints on the effectiveness of bromine relative to chlorine for ozone loss and the role of the HO2 + BrO reaction. Recent laboratory data used in this modeling study suggest that this process greatly enhances the effectiveness of bromine for ozone destruction, making bromine-catalyzed chemistry second only to HOx-catalyzed ozone destruction in the contemporary stratosphere at midlatitudes below about 18 km. The calculated vertical distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere agrees well with observations, as does the total column ozone during most seasons and latitudes, with the important exception of southern hemisphere winter and spring.

The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Jet

In the past several decades, the tropospheric westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere have been observed to accelerate on the poleward side of the surface wind maximum. This has been attributed to the combined anthropogenic effects of increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone and is predicted to continue by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) models. In this paper, the predictions of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) models are examined: Unlike the AR4 models, the CCMVal models have a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry. Owing to the expected disappearance of the ozone hole in the first half of the 21st century, the CCMVal models predict that the tropospheric westerlies in Southern Hemisphere summer will be decelerated, on the poleward side, in contrast with the prediction of most IPCC/AR4 models.

Toward a Physically Based Gravity Wave Source Parameterization in a General Circulation Model

Abstract Middle atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) must employ a parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GWs). Such parameterizations typically make very simple assumptions about gravity wave sources, such as uniform distribution in space and time or an arbitrarily specified GW source function. The authors present a configuration of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that replaces the arbitrarily specified GW source spectrum with GW source parameterizations. For the nonorographic wave sources, a frontal system and convective GW source parameterization are used. These parameterizations link GW generation to tropospheric quantities calculated by the GCM and provide a model-consistent GW representation. With the new GW source parameterization, a reasonable middle atmospheric circulation can be obtained and the middle atmospheric circulation is better in several respects than that generated by a typical GW source specification. In particular, the interannual NH stratospher...

Acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation due to Increases in Greenhouse Gases

Abstract The acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under rising concentrations of greenhouse gases is investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. The circulation strengthens as a result of increased wave driving in the subtropical lower stratosphere, which in turn occurs because of enhanced propagation and dissipation of waves in this region. Enhanced wave propagation is due to changes in tropospheric and lower-stratospheric zonal-mean winds, which become more westerly. Ultimately, these trends follow from changes in the zonal-mean temperature distribution caused by the greenhouse effect. The circulation in the middle and upper stratosphere also accelerates as a result of filtering of parameterized gravity waves by stronger subtropical westerly winds.

Transient Response to Localized Episodic Heating in the Tropics. Part I: Excitation and Short-Time Near-Field Behavior

Abstract The dynamical response to localized, unsteady tropical heating is studied in a stochastic framework. Spectral statistics of the random wave response are derived from those of tropical convection using the primitive equations for a spherical baroclinic atmosphere. Short-time near-field behavior emerges in the form of a transient wavepacket which disperses away the source region. Two principal components characterize the response: 1) a projection response which matches the vertical scale of the heating and 2) a barotropic response involving Rossby normal modes. The projection response consists of a continuum of frequencies and vertical scales centered about vertical wavelengths twice the effective depth of the heating. This scale discrimination is shown to be insensitive to variations in the heating distribution. The associated disturbance is trapped laterally about the equator but radiates vertically away from the source region. It corresponds to the tropical waves traditionally studied on the equ...

Climatology of the semiannual oscillation of the tropical middle atmosphere

We have used a variety of satellite, ground-based, and in situ observations to construct a climatology of the semiannual oscillation (SAO) of the tropical middle atmosphere. The sources of data include rocketsonde observations of winds and temperature, MF radar wind observations, and observations of winds and temperatures made from space by the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). These data sets provide a generally consistent picture of the SAO, of the relationship between its stratospheric and mesospheric manifestations, and of its apparent modulation by the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). In agreement with earlier studies, we find that the first cycle of the stratospheric SAO (which begins with the stratopause easterly phase in northern winter) is stronger than the second cycle (beginning with the easterly phase in southern winter). Similar behavior is apparent in the mesosphere, where the easterly phase is stronger during the first cycle than during the second cycle. HRDI and MF radar are capable of observing the seasonal cycle well into the lower thermosphere. Data from these two sources indicate that a strong SAO is present up to about 90 km, giving way above this altitude to time mean easterly winds with a weak semiannual variation. Between 105 and 110 km, HRDI data indicate the presence of a westerly wind layer with almost no seasonal variation. Apparent modulation of the stratospheric SAO by the QBO is found in rocketsonde data, while HRDI and MF radar observations suggest a correlation between the QBO and the easterly phase of the mesospheric SAO. We discuss the implications of these observations for the wave processes that drive the SAO.