Fabio Romanelli

Seismic wave propagation in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media: Theory and applications to seismic zonation

Publisher Summary The ability to estimate accurately seismic hazard at very low probability of exceedance may be important in protecting special objects in the built environment against rare earthquakes. The deterministic approach, based upon the assumption that several earthquakes can occur within a predefined seismic zone, represents a conservative definition of seismic hazard for preevent localized planning for disaster mitigation, over a broad range of periods. Computation of realistic synthetic seismograms, using methods that take into account source, propagation, and site effects, and utilizing the huge amount of available geological, geophysical, and geotechnical data provides a powerful and economically valid scientific tool for seismic zonation and microzanation. First-order zonations can be made at regional scale, considering average structural models and a set of sources with damaging potential distributed within the identified seismogenic areas. Seismic microzonations of urban areas can be performed even more accurately when the required geotechnical data are available, so that local site effects can be effectively modeled.

Realistic Modeling of Seismic Input in Urban Areas: A UNESCO-IUGS-IGCP Project

Abstract — The estimation of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models. Such a data set can be very constructively used by civil engineers in the design of new seismo-resistant structures and in the reinforcement of the existing built environment, therefore supplying a particularly powerful tool to the prevention efforts of Civil Defense. The availability of realistic numerical simulations enables us to estimate the amplification effects in complex geological structures exploiting the available geotechnical, lithological, geophysical parameters, topography of the medium, tectonic, historical, paleoseismological data, and seismotectonic models. The realistic modeling of the ground motion is a very important source of knowledge for the preparation of groundshaking scenarios which represent a valid and economical tool in seismic microzonation.

Effect of source depth correction on the estimation of earthquake size

The relationship between surface wave magnitude, Ms, and seismic moment, Mo, of earthquakes is essential for the estimation of seismic risk in any region. In the hypothesis of constant stress drop, theoretical models predict that Log Mo and Ms are related by a linear law. The slope most commonly found in the literature is around 1.5. Here we show that the application to the Ms values of the necessary correction for the focal depth, gives a general increment of the correlation coefficient, and that a slope around 1.0 is consistent with the global data, while for regionalized data it can vary from about 1.0 to 2.0.

Beno Gutenberg contribution to seismic hazard assessment and recent progress in the European–Mediterranean region

Abstract The fundamental work of Beno Gutenberg has inspired and guided an appreciable part of research in modern seismology, both from the experimental and the theoretical point of view. Among the several topics of seismology that have benefited from the fundamental contribution of Gutenberg, we consider particularly relevant the description of the asthenospheric low-velocity channel, the definition of the surface waves magnitude and the Gutenberg–Richter law, since they are pivotal tools for seismic hazard assessment. The quite revolutionary model for the lithosphere–asthenosphere system in the European area predicts the existence of almost aseismic lithospheric roots. These roots are located in correspondence of most of the orogenic belts and interrupt the asthenosphere low velocity channel that has been identified by Beno Gutenberg in 1948. The model of the European upper mantle, proposed for the first time in 1979 and subsequently refined, has stimulated a considerable amount of research, which has nicely confirmed the major innovative features of the early model. At present, the subduction of the lithosphere at continent–continent collisions, supported not only by seismological data, is a widely accepted concept within the community of Earth scientists, even if it contradicts one of the basic dogmas of the original formulation of plate tectonics. The proposed model for the Alpine–Apennines area supplies a new and unifying framework for the interpretation of the Quaternary magmatism, at present generally accepted by petrologists and geochemists. The theoretical basis for the Gutenbergs surface-wave magnitude calibration function has been supplied by the use of complete synthetic seismograms, and thus it has been possible to formulate the theoretical M S depth correction. The introduction of the depth correction for M S enables the computation of surface wave magnitude for all earthquakes, regardless of their focal depth. This is especially important for the quantification of subcrustal historical earthquakes, for which the seismic moment may be difficult to estimate from recordings of early mechanical seismographs. The new M S calibrating function yield both distance- and depth-independent magnitude estimates. The analysis of the global seismicity, using the seismotectonic regionalization in subduction zones, mid oceanic ridge zones, island arcs, shows that a single Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation is not universally applicable and that a multiscale seismicity model can reconcile two apparently conflicting paradigms: the Self-Organized Criticality mechanism and the Characteristic Earthquake concept. The multiscale representation has been applied to Italy, where the zones at the space scale of 400–500 km quite well reproduce the shapes of the regions used to apply the, globally tested, CN intermediate term earthquake prediction algorithm.

Broadband NDSHA computations and earthquake ground motion observations for the Italian territory

The aim of this work is two-fold: 1) to compare the results of national scale NDSHA modelling for the Italian region at 10 Hz cut-off, based on the relevant available knowledge, with observations (e.g., peak ground motion values) and existing empirical attenuation relations; 2) to update the scaling law for source spectra (SLSS) to be used for the selected area. The new set of source spectra, defined along the lines suggested by the comparison with empirical attenuation relations, produces acceptable results in terms of PGV and spectral acceleration at long periods. Synthetic PGA and SA at short periods show a faster attenuation with respect to the observed ones and, therefore, the effect of complex attenuation factors should be explored in future ad hoc studies.

A seismological and engineering perspective on the 2016 Central Italy earthquakes

The strong earthquake (M 6.0-6.2) that hit the central Apennines on August 24, 2016, occurred in one of the most seismically active areas in Italy. Field surveys indicated severe damage in the epicentral area where, in addition to the loss of human life, widespread destruction of cultural heritage and of critical buildings occurred. Using the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), we apply the maximum deterministic seismic input (MDSI) procedure at two of the most relevant sites in the epicentral area, comparing the results with the current Italian building code. After performing an expeditious engineering analysis, we interpret as a possible cause of the reported damages the high seismic vulnerability of the built environment, combined with the source and site effects characterising the seismic input. Therefore, it is important to design and retrofit with appropriate spectral acceleration levels compatible with the possible future scenarios, like the ones provided by MDSI.

Transition from continental collision to tectonic escape? A geophysical perspective on lateral expansion of the northern Tibetan Plateau

A number of tectonic models have been proposed for the Tibetan Plateau, which origin, however, remains poorly understood. In this study, investigations of the shear wave velocity (Vs) and density (ρ) structures of the crust and upper mantle evidenced three remarkable features: (1) There are variations in Vs and ρ of the metasomatic mantle wedge in the hanging wall of the subduction beneath different tectonic blocks of Tibet, which may be inferred as related to the dehydration of the downgoing slab. (2) Sections depicting gravitational potential energy suggest that the subducted lithosphere is less dense than the ambient rocks, and thus, being buoyant, it cannot be driven by gravitational slab pull. The subduction process can be inferred by the faster SW-ward motion of Eurasia relative to India as indicated by the plate motions relative to the mantle. An opposite NE-ward mantle flow can be inferred beneath the Himalaya system, deviating E and SE-ward toward China along the tectonic equator. (3) The variation in the thickness of the metasomatic mantle wedge suggests that the leading edge of the subducting Indian slab reaches the Bangoin-Nujiang suture (BNS), and the metasomatic mantle wedge overlaps with a region with poor Sn-wave propagation in north Tibet. The metasomatic layer, north of the BNS, deforms in the E-W direction to accommodate lithosphere shortening in south Tibet.

Recent Achievements of the Neo‐Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment in the CEI Region

A review of the recent achievements of the innovative neo‐deterministic approach for seismic hazard assessment through realistic earthquake scenarios has been performed. The procedure provides strong ground motion parameters for the purpose of earthquake engineering, based on the deterministic seismic wave propagation modelling at different scales—regional, national and metropolitan. The main advantage of this neo‐deterministic procedure is the simultaneous treatment of the contribution of the earthquake source and seismic wave propagation media to the strong motion at the target site/region, as required by basic physical principles. The neo‐deterministic seismic microzonation procedure has been successfully applied to numerous metropolitan areas all over the world in the framework of several international projects. In this study some examples focused on CEI region concerning both regional seismic hazard assessment and seismic microzonation of the selected metropolitan areas are shown.

Low-Frequency Seismic Ground Motion At The Pier Positions Of The Planned Messina Straits Bridge For A Realistic Earthquake Scenario

We estimated longer‐period (period T>0.5 s) components of the ground motion at the piers of the planned Messina straits bridge. As the shortest fault‐to‐site distance is only 3–5 km, the kinematic earthquake rupture process has to be described in a realistic way and thus, the causative fault is represented by a dense grid of subfaults. To model the 1908 event, we assume a Mw = 7 earthquake, with a 40×20 km rectangular fault, and pure reverse dip‐slip. The horizontal upper side of the rectangle is at 3‐km depth, and the N corner of the rectangle is just between the piers. For the fault nucleation point, the least favorable place is assumed and a randomized rupture velocity is used in a particular run. In a typical simulation, the fault motion is initially represented by the time history of slip in each of the subfaults and by the distribution of the final seismic moment among the subsources (forming “asperities”), both generated as lognormal random functions. The time histories are then filtered in order to fit a chosen source spectral model. The parameters that are conditioning the random functions can be based on the bulk of published fault inversions, or reproduced from an earlier successful attempt to simulate ground motions in the epicentral zone of the 1994, M = 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake. In the second step of calculations, the Green functions (for each subfault and pier combination) are calculated for a layered halfspace model of the pier foundation stratigraphy, using an advanced Green function calculator, that allows an accurate calculation over the entire relevant frequency band including static terms. Finally, the 3‐components of the strong ground motion are obtained at the two piers through convolution and summation over the different subsources. We compare a set of response horizontal velocity spectra (PRV) obtained from our calculations with a reference PRV that is considered as a reasonable upper bound for the possible ground motion near the piers. Our results suggest that the seismic ground motion under Torre Sicilia dominates over this under Torre Calabria and that the median (average log) PRV is generally above the reference one, about 1.1–1.3 times for T>4 s, and up to 2 times for 1 0.5 s) components of the ground motion at the piers of the planned Messina straits bridge. As the shortest fault‐to‐site distance is only 3–5 km, the kinematic earthquake rupture process has to be described in a realistic way and thus, the causative fault is represented by a dense grid of subfaults. To model the 1908 event, we assume a Mw = 7 earthquake, with a 40×20 km rectangular fault, and pure reverse dip‐slip. The horizontal upper side of the rectangle is at 3‐km depth, and the N corner of the rectangle is just between the piers. For the fault nucleation point, the least favorable place is assumed and a randomized rupture velocity is used in a particular run. In a typical simulation, the fault motion is initially represented by the time history of slip in each of the subfaults and by the distribution of the final seismic moment among the subsources (forming “asperities”), both generated as lognormal random functions. The time histories are then filtered in order t...

Active carbon sequestration in the Alpine mantle wedge and implications for long-Term climate trends

The long-term carbon budget has major implications for Earth’s climate and biosphere, but the balance between carbon sequestration during subduction, and outgassing by volcanism is still poorly known. Although carbon-rich fluid inclusions and minerals are described in exhumed mantle rocks and xenoliths, compelling geophysical evidence of large-scale carbon storage in the upper mantle is still lacking. Here, we use a geophysical surface-wave seismic tomography model of the mantle wedge above the subducted European slab to document a prominent shear-wave low-velocity anomaly at depths greater than 180 km. We propose that this anomaly is generated by extraction of carbonate-rich melts from the asthenosphere, favoured by the breakdown of slab carbonates and hydrous minerals after cold subduction. The resulting transient network of carbon-rich melts is frozen in the mantle wedge without producing volcanism. Our results provide the first in-situ observational evidence of ongoing carbon sequestration in the upper mantle at a plate-tectonic scale. We infer that carbon sequestered during cold subduction may partly counterbalance carbon outgassed from ridges and oceanic islands. However, subducted carbon may be rapidly released during continental rifting, with global effects on long-term climate trends and the habitability of planet Earth.