Fatima Zaidi

Progress of constitutional change and irrigation management transfer in Pakistan: insights from a net-map exercise

Two current processes of institutional reform – irrigation management transfer (IMT) and the 18th Amendment to Pakistan’s Constitution – are expected to significantly impact agriculture and irrigation in Pakistan. Results are analyzed from a net-map exercise conducted with water-sector experts at the federal and provincial (Punjab) scales. The data suggest the potential for successful shifts of decision making under the 18th Amendment. However, weaker perceptions of the role of IMT in water governance were found than would be expected given its long history. This is further evidence that something new is necessary to help shift towards the decentralized IMT model.

A Question of Integrity: Variants of Bt Cotton, Pesticides and Productivity in Pakistan

Bt cotton remains one of the most widely grown biotech crops among smallholder farmers in lower income countries, and numerous studies attest to its advantages. However, the effectiveness of Bt toxin, which depends on many technical constraints, is heterogeneous. In Pakistan, the diffusion of Bt cotton occurred despite a weak regulatory system and without seed quality control; whether or not many varieties sold as Bt are in fact Bt is also questionable. We utilize nationally representative sample data to test the effects of Bt cotton use on productivity. Unlike previous studies, we invoke several indicators of Bt identity: variety name, official approval status, farmer belief, laboratory tests of Bt presence in plant tissue, and biophysical assays measuring Bt effectiveness. Only farmer belief affects cotton productivity in the standard production model, which does not treat Bt appropriately as damage-abating. In the damage control framework, all Bt indicators reduce damage from pests. Biophysical indicators have the largest effect and official approval has the weakest. Findings have implications for impact measurement. For policymakers, they suggest the need, on ethical if not productivity grounds, to improve variety information and monitor variety integrity closer to point of sale.

The Effects of Political Competition on Rural Land: Evidence from Pakistan

Can more vigorous political competition significantly raise rural land values, or contribute to more robust land rental markets? Exploiting exogenous variation in the national popularity of Pakistan’s political parties during the 2008 elections, we show that provincial assembly constituencies with greater competition between political parties had significantly higher land values and more active land rental markets four years later. A standard deviation decrease in a Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) of political concentration is associated with a 36 percent increase in land values, an 8 percentage point increase in the share of landowners renting out land, and an additional 4 percentage points of each landowner’s land being rented out. Land values appear to increase most among the poorest households, suggesting that benefits are greatest for those with the fewest resources to influence policy. Exploring potential causal mechanisms, we show that political competition leads to more stable and businessfriendly governance and institutions, better amenities, and greater provision of publicly provided goods. The effect of political competition on security is ambiguous, suggesting that political competition may decrease security along some dimensions and increase it along others.

What are farmers really planting? Measuring the presence and effectiveness of Bt cotton in Pakistan

Genetically modified, insect-resistant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton is cultivated extensively in Pakistan. Past studies, however, have raised concerns about the prevalence of Bt cotton varieties possessing weak or nonperforming insect-resistance traits conferred by the cry gene. We examine this issue using data drawn from a representative sample of cotton-growing households that were surveyed in six agroclimatic zones spanning 28 districts in Pakistan in 2013, as well as measurements of Cry protein levels in cotton tissue samples collected from the sampled households’ main fields. The resultant dataset combines information from 593 sampled households with corresponding plant tissue diagnostics from 70 days after sowing, as well as information from 589 sampled households with corresponding diagnostics from 120 days after sowing. Our analysis indicates that 11 percent of farmers believed they were cultivating Bt cotton when, in fact, the Cry toxin was not present in the tested tissue at 70 days after sowing (i.e., a Type I error). The analysis further indicates that 5 percent of farmers believed they were cultivating non-Bt cotton when, in fact, the Cry toxin was present in the tested tissue (i.e., a Type II error). In addition, 17 percent of all sampled farmers were uncertain whether or not they were cultivating Bt cotton. Overall, 33 percent of farmers either did not know or were mistaken in their beliefs about the presence of the cry gene in the cotton they cultivated. Results also indicate that toxic protein levels in the plant tissue samples occurred below threshold levels for lethality in a significant percentage of cases, although these measurements may also be affected by factors related to tissue sample collection, handling, storage, and testing procedures. Nonetheless, results strongly suggest wide variability both in farmers’ beliefs and in gene expression. Such variability has implications for policy and regulation in Pakistan’s transgenic cotton seed market.

Chapter 5. The Architecture of the Pakistani Seed System: A Case of Market-Regulation Dissonance

Introduction Applications of modern science to the improvement of cultivated crop varieties (“cultivars”) have yielded tremendous gains for food security in Pakistan since the 1960s. The introduction of semi-dwarf rice and wheat cultivars—alongside strategic investments in the distribution of synthetic fertilizers, provision of irrigation, advice on crop management, and price support policies—encouraged rapid intensification in Pakistan’s high-potential areas in a manner that is still recognized as one of the country’s greatest development achievements. But since that moment in history, a constant onslaught of new threats to productivity growth—new pests and diseases, diminishing natural resource stocks, weather shocks and climate volatility, changing demands from farmers and consumers, and new market forces—has highlighted the need for continuous innovation in cultivar improvement and seed provisioning strategies for farmers. By most accounts, innovation has fallen short of the challenge.