Patricia Zambrano

South‐North Trade, Intellectual Property Jurisdictions, and Freedom to Operate in Agricultural Research on Staple Crops*

A biotechnology revolution is proceeding in tandem with international proliferation of intellectual property regimes and rights. Does the intellectual property impede agricultural research conducted in, or of consequence for, developing countries? This question has important spatial dimensions that link the location of production, the pattern of international trade, and the jurisdiction of intellectual property. Our main conclusion is that the current concerns about the freedom to operate in agricultural research oriented towards food crops for the developing world are exaggerated. Rights to intellectual property are confined to the jurisdictions where they are granted, and, presently, many of the intellectual property (IP) rights for biotechnologies potentially useful to developing-country agricultural producers are valid only in developed countries. IP problems might arise in technologies destined for crops grown in developing countries unencumbered by IP restrictions, if those crops are subsequently exported to countries in which IP is likely to prevail. Thus freedom to trade is also part of the IP story. However, using international production and trade data in the 15 crops critical to food security throughout the developing world, we show that exports from developing to developed countries are generally dwarfed by production and consumption in the developing world, the value of these exports is concentrated in a few crops and a few exporting countries, and the bulk of these exports go to Western Europe. Thus for now, most LDC researchers can focus primarily on domestic IPR in determining their freedom to operate with respect to food staples.

Wheat breeding, productivity and slow variety change: evidence from the Punjab of India after the Green Revolution *

Variety change and genetic diversity are important means of combating crop losses from pests and diseases in modern agricultural systems. Since the Green Revolution, genetic diversity among wheat varieties released in India has increased but variety change on farms continues to be slow. In this article, we define and summarise indices of variety change and genetic diversity for the wheat varieties released and grown in Indian Punjab during the post-Green Revolution period. We evaluate the effect of each index on technical efficiency with a Cobb-Douglas yield model after testing for exogeneity. Findings support the hypothesis that slow variety change has offset the positive productivity effects of diversifying the genetic base in wheat breeding during the post-Green Revolution period. Policies that speed the rate of variety change and contribute to a more equitable spatial distribution of modern varieties could support wheat productivity in the Punjab of India, reinforcing plant breeding successes.

The economic impact of transgenic crops in developing countries : a note on the methods

A vast literature has accumulated since crop varieties with transgenic resistance to insects and herbicide tolerance were released to farmers in 1996 and 1997. A comparatively minor segment of this literature consists of studies conducted by agricultural economists to measure the farm-level impact of transgenic crop varieties, the size and distribution of the economic benefits from adopting them and the implications for international trade. This paper focuses only on the applied economics literature about the impact of transgenic crop varieties in non-industrialised agricultural systems, with a focus on the methods. A number of studies have surveyed the findings for both industrialised and non-industrialised agriculture at various points in time, but surveys of methods are less common and most treat one aspect of economic impact. Clearly, the methods used in research influence the findings that are presented and what they mean. Three levels of impact analysis are considered: farm, industry and trade. We conclude that because the methods used present challenges and limitations, the few transgenic crop-trait combinations released in developing economies and the relatively brief time frame of most analyses, the results are promising but the balance sheet is mixed. Thus, the findings of current case studies should not be generalised to other locations, crops and traits.

A Question of Integrity: Variants of Bt Cotton, Pesticides and Productivity in Pakistan

Bt cotton remains one of the most widely grown biotech crops among smallholder farmers in lower income countries, and numerous studies attest to its advantages. However, the effectiveness of Bt toxin, which depends on many technical constraints, is heterogeneous. In Pakistan, the diffusion of Bt cotton occurred despite a weak regulatory system and without seed quality control; whether or not many varieties sold as Bt are in fact Bt is also questionable. We utilize nationally representative sample data to test the effects of Bt cotton use on productivity. Unlike previous studies, we invoke several indicators of Bt identity: variety name, official approval status, farmer belief, laboratory tests of Bt presence in plant tissue, and biophysical assays measuring Bt effectiveness. Only farmer belief affects cotton productivity in the standard production model, which does not treat Bt appropriately as damage-abating. In the damage control framework, all Bt indicators reduce damage from pests. Biophysical indicators have the largest effect and official approval has the weakest. Findings have implications for impact measurement. For policymakers, they suggest the need, on ethical if not productivity grounds, to improve variety information and monitor variety integrity closer to point of sale.

Impact on Biodiversity

The impact of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) on “the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity,” as stated in Article 26 of the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety ((Secretariat of the Convention of Biological Diversity 2000, p. 19), has generated a heated and polarized debate. On one side is the position of those who believe that not only economic but ethical, religious, and cultural considerations related to biodiversity should be taken into account. On the other side, stand those who believe that the impact of GMOs on the environment should be circumscribed to environmental assessments. Whatever the position, generating a useful analysis of the impacts of GMOs on biological diversity requires thoughtful definition of concepts and selection of appropriate valuation methods.

Estimates and implications of the costs of compliance with biosafety regulations in developing countries

Estimating the cost of compliance with biosafety regulations is important as it helps developers focus their investments in producer development. We provide estimates for the cost of compliance for a set of technologies in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries. These costs vary from US

Are developing-country policies and investments promoting research and research partnerships in agricultural biotechnology?

100,000 to 1.7 million. These are estimates of regulatory costs and do not include product development or deployment costs. Cost estimates need to be compared with potential gains when the technology is introduced in these countries and the gains in knowledge accumulate during the biosafety assessment process. Although the cost of compliance is important, time delays and uncertainty are even more important and may have an adverse impact on innovations reaching farmers.

What are farmers really planting? Measuring the presence and effectiveness of Bt cotton in Pakistan

This article presents findings from two studies of public-sector research on agricultural biotechnology. The first focuses on national agricultural research organisations and universities in developing countries, while the second focuses on public-private research collaborations with international agricultural research centres. Findings suggest that a number of developing countries are, in fact, investing in research on agricultural biotechnology and genetically modified crops. Nevertheless, public policy, public awareness and investment environments may be inhibiting the understanding and diffusion of these new technologies. Findings further suggest that valuable private-sector resources are not being brought to bear on research and development, thus slowing the pace of innovation. If developing-country agriculture is to benefit from advances in biotechnology, greater effort is needed to enhance the international exchange of information, overcome barriers to cross-sectoral research collaboration, develop new approaches to product delivery, and reverse the isolation of public research institutions.

Measuring the Economic Impacts of Transgenic Crops in Developing Agriculture during the First Decade: Approaches, Findings, and Future Directions

Genetically modified, insect-resistant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton is cultivated extensively in Pakistan. Past studies, however, have raised concerns about the prevalence of Bt cotton varieties possessing weak or nonperforming insect-resistance traits conferred by the cry gene. We examine this issue using data drawn from a representative sample of cotton-growing households that were surveyed in six agroclimatic zones spanning 28 districts in Pakistan in 2013, as well as measurements of Cry protein levels in cotton tissue samples collected from the sampled households’ main fields. The resultant dataset combines information from 593 sampled households with corresponding plant tissue diagnostics from 70 days after sowing, as well as information from 589 sampled households with corresponding diagnostics from 120 days after sowing. Our analysis indicates that 11 percent of farmers believed they were cultivating Bt cotton when, in fact, the Cry toxin was not present in the tested tissue at 70 days after sowing (i.e., a Type I error). The analysis further indicates that 5 percent of farmers believed they were cultivating non-Bt cotton when, in fact, the Cry toxin was present in the tested tissue (i.e., a Type II error). In addition, 17 percent of all sampled farmers were uncertain whether or not they were cultivating Bt cotton. Overall, 33 percent of farmers either did not know or were mistaken in their beliefs about the presence of the cry gene in the cotton they cultivated. Results also indicate that toxic protein levels in the plant tissue samples occurred below threshold levels for lethality in a significant percentage of cases, although these measurements may also be affected by factors related to tissue sample collection, handling, storage, and testing procedures. Nonetheless, results strongly suggest wide variability both in farmers’ beliefs and in gene expression. Such variability has implications for policy and regulation in Pakistan’s transgenic cotton seed market.