Hina Nazli

A Question of Integrity: Variants of Bt Cotton, Pesticides and Productivity in Pakistan

Bt cotton remains one of the most widely grown biotech crops among smallholder farmers in lower income countries, and numerous studies attest to its advantages. However, the effectiveness of Bt toxin, which depends on many technical constraints, is heterogeneous. In Pakistan, the diffusion of Bt cotton occurred despite a weak regulatory system and without seed quality control; whether or not many varieties sold as Bt are in fact Bt is also questionable. We utilize nationally representative sample data to test the effects of Bt cotton use on productivity. Unlike previous studies, we invoke several indicators of Bt identity: variety name, official approval status, farmer belief, laboratory tests of Bt presence in plant tissue, and biophysical assays measuring Bt effectiveness. Only farmer belief affects cotton productivity in the standard production model, which does not treat Bt appropriately as damage-abating. In the damage control framework, all Bt indicators reduce damage from pests. Biophysical indicators have the largest effect and official approval has the weakest. Findings have implications for impact measurement. For policymakers, they suggest the need, on ethical if not productivity grounds, to improve variety information and monitor variety integrity closer to point of sale.

What are farmers really planting? Measuring the presence and effectiveness of Bt cotton in Pakistan

Genetically modified, insect-resistant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton is cultivated extensively in Pakistan. Past studies, however, have raised concerns about the prevalence of Bt cotton varieties possessing weak or nonperforming insect-resistance traits conferred by the cry gene. We examine this issue using data drawn from a representative sample of cotton-growing households that were surveyed in six agroclimatic zones spanning 28 districts in Pakistan in 2013, as well as measurements of Cry protein levels in cotton tissue samples collected from the sampled households’ main fields. The resultant dataset combines information from 593 sampled households with corresponding plant tissue diagnostics from 70 days after sowing, as well as information from 589 sampled households with corresponding diagnostics from 120 days after sowing. Our analysis indicates that 11 percent of farmers believed they were cultivating Bt cotton when, in fact, the Cry toxin was not present in the tested tissue at 70 days after sowing (i.e., a Type I error). The analysis further indicates that 5 percent of farmers believed they were cultivating non-Bt cotton when, in fact, the Cry toxin was present in the tested tissue (i.e., a Type II error). In addition, 17 percent of all sampled farmers were uncertain whether or not they were cultivating Bt cotton. Overall, 33 percent of farmers either did not know or were mistaken in their beliefs about the presence of the cry gene in the cotton they cultivated. Results also indicate that toxic protein levels in the plant tissue samples occurred below threshold levels for lethality in a significant percentage of cases, although these measurements may also be affected by factors related to tissue sample collection, handling, storage, and testing procedures. Nonetheless, results strongly suggest wide variability both in farmers’ beliefs and in gene expression. Such variability has implications for policy and regulation in Pakistan’s transgenic cotton seed market.

Factors influencing the productivity and efficiency of wheat farmers in Punjab, Pakistan

Purpose - Scientists in Pakistan are currently developing biofortified wheat varieties to address widespread zinc deficiency, especially among women and children in poorer rural households. The purpose of this paper is to understand how the productivity and efficiency of small-scale and marginal wheat farmers can be improved so that their households may benefit from zinc-fortified varieties. Design/methodology/approach - The authors estimate a stochastic frontier production function model with data from a survey of wheat farmers conducted in Punjab, Pakistan in 2011. Findings - The productivities of the newer varieties of wheat were significantly greater than the older varieties, as expected. Farmers growing wheat in the rice-wheat and cotton-wheat zones tend to be more efficient than farmers from the mixed zone. Farmers who wait to adopt a leading variety are not less efficient than earlier adopters, but the longer the time until they switch varieties again, the more inefficient is their wheat production. Older farmers tend to be more technically inefficient than younger farmers, but the effect of education is not statistically significant. Wheat farmers with access to extension advice are more efficient. Farmers whose land suffered from severe salinity or severe toxicity are less productive and less efficient than others. Research limitations/implications - The authors find no differences in technical inefficiency effects associated with growing the four most popular varieties, either grown alone or with other varieties – suggesting that no single leading variety should be targeted for biofortification. In contrast to some earlier studies, the authors find that small-scale farmers tend to be less technically efficient. This result underscores the need to specifically target this group in promotional programs, and also to complement these with reinforcement of agronomic recommendations. Originality/value - This project is part of the HarvestPlus program to determine the appropriate variety or varieties to biofortify with zinc so that Pakistan’s population can have better health and well-being. Further, the results show that there it is desirable to undertake further studies to improve the productivity and efficiency of wheat farmers in the Punjab, Pakistan to increase the health and well-being of the population in general.