Fernando Motta Correia

CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO E LEI DE THIRLWALL: UMA ANÁLISE PARA ECONOMIAS LATINO-AMERICANAS

The objective is to demonstrate, using the Engle-Granger methodology, the five selected Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico) actually observed for the period 1980-2005, a variation in its income elasticity of imports so that it tends to soften the constraint imposed by the law of Thirlwall growth of these countries, ie, it is expected that a negative flow of capital, or a flight of capital, reduce the income elasticity of imports, implying a higher growth rate than is possible if it is kept constant during this flight. The results show that Thirlwalls Law seems to be a good representation for the trajectory of growth, which is determined primarily by exports and the income elasticity of imports.

Política fiscal, sustentabilidade da dívida pública e liquidez dos títulos: uma análise para o Brasil

This article evaluates such a fiscal effort and in particular the role played by the liquidity of the public debt bonds market to alleviate the effort. A model based on Edwards (2003) is applied to forecast the primary fiscal surplus in alternative scenarios of demand for the public debt bonds, real GDP growth, inflation target, real interest rate and changes in exchange rate. We focus on the impact of the changes in demand for the public debt bonds on the fiscal effort necessary to stabilize the debt-GDP ratio. Results show that such changes alter the response of the fiscal effort to GDP growth and changes in exchange rate. Although the other variables considered can affect the fiscal effort their response to GDP growth is constant.

Alocação dos gastos públicos e crescimento econômico: um estudo em painel para os estados brasileiros

The effect of the allocation of government spending on the economy is currently a subject of interest given the fiscal budget constraints facing governments due to fiscal crises or adjustments. This paper thus seeks to study the effects of the allocation of government spending on the GDP behavior of Brazilian states from 1995 to 2011. Using a conventional FE (Fixed Effect) panel data model, this paper’s main results are as follows: (i) administration and planning, (ii) judicial, (iii) housing and (iv) social assistance spending were found to be productive, while (i) education and culture and (ii) legislative spending were found to be unproductive. In addition, some evidence has been found that the introduction of public borrowing rules by the Fiscal Responsibility Law has been beneficial to the economic growth of Brazilian states.

NÃO NEUTRALIDADE FISCAL, GASTOS PÚBLICOS E AGENTES HETEROGÊNEOS

O objetivo deste estudo e verificar se a politica fiscal e nao neutra em um ambiente de endogeneidade dos gastos publicos com agentes heterogeneos. Considerou-se que a politica fiscal pode ser conduzida por dois instrumentos, a saber, os impostos lump-sum e os gastos publicos. Para alcancar o objetivo proposto construiu-se um modelo novo keynesiano a partir dos trabalhos de Blanchard (1985) e Leith e Thadden (2008). Os resultados do sistema dinâmico indicam que as politicas monetaria e fiscal devam ser ativas, o que denota para a nao neutralidade da politica fiscal.