Francesco Olmastroni

Patterns of isolationism: a quantitative assessment of Italy’s defence and foreign policy from government alternation to ‘grand coalitions’

This article examines how Italy’s projection abroad has changed in terms of its capabilities. Budgetary allocations to the Ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs are examined to understand whether and how spending on these policy areas has varied as an effect of the economic crisis. The number of troops deployed in military operations and the mandate under which they operate are analysed to verify whether the use of military force has changed, quantitatively and qualitatively, in the last few years. Although this article is centred on the recent ‘grand coalition’ governments, namely those of Enrico Letta and Matteo Renzi, trend analysis is used to determine patterns of change or continuity in Italian foreign policy (IFP) over time and across executives.

Foreign posture in comparative perspective: a quantitative and qualitative appraisal of Italian foreign and defence policy during the Renzi Government

ABSTRACT The performance of the Renzi government (2014–2016) in the realm of foreign and defence policy is a mixed bag. Struggling with significant structural constraints at home but called upon to shoulder increased responsibilities abroad, Italian foreign policy (IFP) has balanced instances of retrenchment, characterised by inward-looking tendencies and continued budget shortfalls, with its traditional emphasis on bandwagoning with stronger allies to retain a degree of influence over international events. Secondary only to Italy’s traditional focus on the European project and the broader North Atlantic Alliance, the Mediterranean pillar – including the fight against extremism and the search for new markets and economic opportunities – has dominated IFP under the Renzi government. While staying true to its traditional reluctance to ‘go it alone’, Italy has pushed hard in Europe to consolidate a common response to the migration crisis, while seeking to assume a leading role in efforts to support political reconciliation in Libya. Italy has also enhanced its participation in the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, but has to date refused repeated requests by the US and its allies to begin offensive military operations in Syria and Iraq. The article analyses Italian foreign and defence policy from a comparative perspective, employing a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach to assess the strengths and weaknesses of Italy’s foreign posture between 2014 and 2016.

Partecipanti e non partecipanti: Limiti di rappresentatività in pratiche di democrazia deliberativa

Rispetto alle precedenti esperienze di democrazia deliberativa con procedura di autoselezione, gli ultimi esperimenti condotti a livello italiano ed europeo si sono contraddistinti per il considerevole sforzo nell’incrementare la rappresentativita del campione dei partecipanti rispetto alla popolazione di riferimento. Campionamento e reclutamento hanno percio assunto una valenza sempre piu significativa per la riuscita di una pratica deliberativa, rafforzando la validita dei risultati ottenuti durante l’intero processo dialogico-deliberativo. Malgrado la scrupolosa attenzione durante la selezione dei partecipanti e l’adozione di sistemi di controllo basati sulle principali variabili sociodemografiche, si puo evidenziare tuttavia come coloro che decidono di partecipare ad un esperimento di democrazia deliberativa mostrano delle peculiarita che li contraddistinguono da coloro che decidono di non prendere parte all’evento, con possibili implicazioni per gli stessi esiti qualitativi dell’esperimento. L’articolo proposto intende esaminare le caratteristiche dei partecipanti a due deliberative polls rispettivamente svoltisi in Italia (la Consultazione dei Cittadini di Torino) e in Europa (Europolis) tra il 2007 ed il 2009. Dopo avere individuato le principali caratteristiche dei partecipanti ed averle contrapposte con quelle dei non partecipanti tramite strumenti di statistica descrittiva e l’utilizzo della tecnica dell’analisi discriminante, lo studio propone l’applicazione di un modello sperimentale che permette l’individuazione e l’impiego di un campione ampiamente rappresentativo della popolazione di riferimento su cui replicare i risultati dell’evento. Obiettivo del paper e esaminare le eventuali divergenze negli atteggiamenti antecedenti e successivi all’evento deliberativo nel campione reale, composto dai partecipanti effettivi, ed in quello ipotetico, costituito invece da casi virtuali pesati e stratificati sulla base delle caratteristiche socio-demografiche e socio-politiche dei non partecipanti.

Members apart: a mass-elite comparison of mutual perceptions and support for the European Union in Germany and Italy

ABSTRACT The multiple crises faced by the European Union – economic stagnation, geopolitical insecurity, refugee and migration flows – and some side-effects of the integration process (e.g. fiscal austerity, transnational redistribution, borders protection) seem not only to have exacerbated the public-elite divide in almost all member states, but also re-vitalised the North-South rift. If public support and trust in the capacity of EU institutions to resolve problems have seriously declined over the last few years, mutual prejudices between Northern and Southern countries have been reinforced by recent developments within the EU. The article uses the cases of Germany and Italy as illustrative examples of this ‘within’ and ‘cross-country’ malaise. By using a longitudinal and cross-sectional approach, it systematically explores the changing orientations of public opinion and political leaders with regard to the European integration project, supranational cohesion, and, last but not least, the perceived image of the other member state in the last four decades. The article moves forward the theoretical discussion on the state of intra-European relations by offering a unique source of data to study how attitudes towards the EU have been shaped by domestic and external conditions and how, in turn, these attitudes have impacted on the reciprocal views of Italians and Germans.