Franck Sédillot

Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation? Out-of-sample evidence from French data

Abstract This paper compares the ability of four indicators of underlying or ‘core’ inflation to forecast inflation in the French case. Though most indicators Granger-cause inflation, results from out of sample tests of forecast accuracy are less compelling. The results nevertheless seem to give some empirical support to trimmed mean indicators.

Implementing and Interpreting Indicator of Core Inflation: The Case of France (In French)

This paper presents a comparison of alternative indicators of underlying inflation in the French case. Four broad measures are considered and implemented the first two of which are inflation excluding food and energy and the trimmed inflation indicator. We then implement two methods relying on time-series models: the Structural VAR approach and the Dynamic Factor Index. Combining the various indicators conveys valuable information for appraising short-term inflation developments. Nevertheless, even in the case of the structural VAR, the theoretical interpretation of underlying inflation is not straightforward, lacking an explicit representation of monetary policy.

Households’ Financial Portfolio Choices: A Comparison between France and Germany (1978–2009)

French and German households have sharply increased their accumula- tion of financial wealth during the last three decades. In 1991. financial wealth of French households accounted for about 162 per cent of dis- posable income versus about 225 per cent in 2009. Financial wealth of German households accounted for 182 per cent of disposable income in 1991 versus 290 per cent in 2009. Beyond this accumulation process of financial wealth over the long run, households-’ financial portfolio structure has dramatically evolved during the period 1978–2009 in these two European countries, in this chapter, we provide a detailed com- parative analysis of the households’ financial portfolio structure during the period 1978–2009 in France and Germany, The analysis is based on two unique datasets built in the Deutsche Bundesbank and Banque de France. These datasets enable us to analyse the evolution of the harmonised assets categories held by the households in their financial portfolios on a quarterly basis. In particular, we are able to compare the portfolio structures of the households of the two countries over an extended period of time.1