Frank E. Urban

Fire behavior, weather, and burn severity of the 2007 anaktuvuk river tundra fire, North Slope, Alaska

Abstract In 2007, the Anaktuvuk River Fire (ARF) became the largest recorded tundra fire on the North Slope of Alaska. The ARF burned for nearly three months, consuming more than 100,000 ha. At its peak in early September, the ARF burned at a rate of 7000 ha d−1. The conditions potentially responsible for this large tundra fire include modeled record high summer temperature and record low summer precipitation, a late-season high-pressure system located over the Beaufort Sea, extremely dry soil conditions throughout the summer, and sustained southerly winds during the period of vegetation senescence. Burn severity mapping revealed that more than 80% of the ARF burned at moderate to extreme severity, while the nearby Kuparuk River Fire remained small and burned at predominantly (80%) low severity. While this study provides information that may aid in the prediction of future large tundra fires in northern Alaska, the fact that three other tundra fires that occurred in 2007 combined to burn less than 1000 ha suggests site specific complexities associated with tundra fires on the North Slope, which may hamper the development of tundra fire forecasting models.

Thermal Erosion of a Permafrost Coastline: Improving Process-Based Models Using Time-Lapse Photography

Abstract Coastal erosion rates locally exceeding 30 m y−1 have been documented along Alaskas Beaufort Sea coastline, and a number of studies suggest that these erosion rates have accelerated as a result of climate change. However, a lack of direct observational evidence has limited our progress in quantifying the specific processes that connect climate change to coastal erosion rates in the Arctic. In particular, while longer ice-free periods are likely to lead to both warmer surface waters and longer fetch, the relative roles of thermal and mechanical (wave) erosion in driving coastal retreat have not been comprehensively quantified. We focus on a permafrost coastline in the northern National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPR-A), where coastal erosion rates have averaged 10–15 m y−1 over two years of direct monitoring. We take advantage of these extraordinary rates of coastal erosion to observe and quantify coastal erosion directly via time-lapse photography in combination with meteorological observations. Our observations indicate that the erosion of these bluffs is largely thermally driven, but that surface winds play a crucial role in exposing the frozen bluffs to the radiatively warmed seawater that drives melting of interstitial ice. To first order, erosion in this setting can be modeled using formulations developed to describe iceberg deterioration in the open ocean. These simple models provide a conceptual framework for evaluating how climate-induced changes in thermal and wave energy might influence future erosion rates in this setting.

Modeling erosion of ice‐rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

The Arctic climate is changing, inducing accelerating retreat of ice-rich permafrost coastal bluffs. Along Alaskas Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have increased roughly threefold from 6.8 to 19 m yr−1 since 1955 while the sea ice-free season has increased roughly twofold from 45 to 100 days since 1979. We develop a numerical model of bluff retreat to assess the relative roles of the length of sea ice-free season, sea level, water temperature, nearshore wavefield, and permafrost temperature in controlling erosion rates in this setting. The model captures the processes of erosion observed in short-term monitoring experiments along the Beaufort Sea coast, including evolution of melt notches, topple of ice wedge-bounded blocks, and degradation of these blocks. Model results agree with time-lapse imagery of bluff evolution and time series of ocean-based instrumentation. Erosion is highly episodic with 40% of erosion is accomplished during less than 5% of the sea ice-free season. Among the formulations of the submarine erosion rate we assessed, we advocate those that employ both water temperature and nearshore wavefield. As high water levels are a prerequisite for erosion, any future changes that increase the frequency with which water levels exceed the base of the bluffs will increase rates of coastal erosion. The certain increases in sea level and potential changes in storminess will both contribute to this effect. As water temperature also influences erosion rates, any further expansion of the sea ice-free season into the midsummer period of greatest insolation is likely to result in an additional increase in coastal retreat rates.

Drainage Network Structure and Hydrologic Behavior of Three Lake-Rich Watersheds on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

Abstract Watersheds draining the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska are dominated by permafrost and snowmelt runoff that create abundant surface storage in the form of lakes, wetlands, and beaded streams. These surface water elements compose complex drainage networks that affect aquatic ecosystem connectivity and hydrologic behavior. The 4676 km2 Fish Creek drainage basin is composed of three watersheds that represent a gradient of the ACP landscape with varying extents of eolian, lacustrine, and fluvial landforms. In each watershed, we analyzed 2.5-m-resolution aerial photography, a 5-m digital elevation model, and river gauging and climate records to better understand ACP watershed structure and processes. We show that connected lakes accounted for 19 to 26% of drainage density among watersheds and most all channels initiate from lake basins in the form of beaded streams. Of the > 2500 lakes in these watersheds, 33% have perennial streamflow connectivity, and these represent 66% of total lake area extent. Deeper lakes with over-wintering habitat were more abundant in the watershed with eolian sand deposits, while the watershed with marine silt deposits contained a greater extent of beaded streams and shallow thermokarst lakes that provide essential summer feeding habitat. Comparison of flow regimes among watersheds showed that higher lake extent and lower drained lake-basin extent corresponded with lower snowmelt and higher baseflow runoff. Variation in baseflow runoff among watersheds was most pronounced during drought conditions in 2007 with corresponding reduction in snowmelt peak flows the following year. Comparison with other Arctic watersheds indicates that lake area extent corresponds to slower recession of both snowmelt and baseflow runoff. These analyses help refine our understanding of how Arctic watersheds are structured and function hydrologically, emphasizing the important role of lake basins and suggesting how future lake change may impact hydrologic processes.

Erosional history of Cape Halkett and contemporary monitoring of bluff retreat, Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska

Abstract Cape Halkett is located along the Beaufort Sea at the end of a low-lying tundra landscape. The area has been subject to major modifications over the last century as a result of erosion and migration of the coastline inland. Long-term mean annual erosion rates (1955–2009) for the entire cape are 7.6 m/yr, with a gradual increase in rates over the first five time periods of remotely sensed imagery analyzed and a large increase during the most recent time period. Division of the cape into three distinct coastal zones shows very different erosional patterns: the northeast-facing segment (Zone 1) showing a consistent and large increase; the southeast-facing segment (Zone 3) showing a gradual increase with recent, heightened erosion rates; and the east-facing segment (Zone 2) showing decreased rates due to the reformation of a sand and gravel spit. Monitoring of bluff erosion with time-lapse photography, differential GPS surveys, terrestrial and bathymetric surveys, and water level, sea and permafrost temperature data provide insights into the processes driving contemporary patterns of erosion and will provide valuable information for the prediction of future shoreline positions.

Modeling the subsurface thermal impact of Arctic thaw lakes in a warming climate

Warming air temperatures in the Arctic are modifying the rates of thermokarst processes along Alaskas Arctic Coastal Plain. The Arctic Coastal Plain is dominated by thaw lakes. These kilometer-scale lakes are the most visible surface features in the region, and they provide important habitats for migratory birds. The lakes are formed by thermokarst processes, and are therefore susceptible to change as warming continues. We present a 1D numerical model of permafrost and subsidence processes in order to investigate the subsurface thermal impact of thaw lakes of various depths, and to evaluate how this impact might change in a warming climate. Currently, most thaw lakes in the region are shallow (<~2m deep), freeze to their base each winter, and are not underlain by permanently unfrozen ground (taliks). Field observations indicate that these shallow lakes have not greatly altered the thermal structure of the subsurface. Our model suggests that under a warming scenario, the number of lakes that do not freeze to their base during the winter, and are therefore underlain by taliks, will increase. Such changes could substantially alter the hydrology of the Arctic Coastal Plain.

Snowmelt detection from QuikSCAT and ASCAT satellite radar scatterometer data across the Alaskan North Slope

The timing of seasonal snowmelt in high-latitude tundra has implications ranging from local biological productivity to global atmospheric circulation, yet remains difficult to quantify, particularly at large spatial scales. Snowmelt detection in such remote polar environments is possible using satellite-based microwave scatterometers, such as NASA’s QuikSCAT. QuikSCAT measured scattering in Ku-band, which is sensitive to snowmelt signals, from 1999 until the antenna failed in 2009. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) (2006–2021 (projected) operational), which operates at C-band, may be able to extend the QuikSCAT record, but existing techniques fail to adequately monitor tundra environments. Here, we designed a departure threshold algorithm to produce a consistent 15-year time series of melt onset for the tundra of the Alaskan North Slope, using the overlap period for the enhanced resolution datasets to calibrate the ASCAT melt detection record against QuikSCAT. We produced a time series of day of year of melt onset for 4.45 km x 4.45 km grid cells on the Alaskan North Slope from 2000–2014. Time series validation with in situ mean daily air temperature produced mean R2 values of 0.75 (QuikSCAT) and 0.72 (ASCAT). We qualitatively observed a difference between early-season melt, which occurred rapidly and was driven by strong wind events, and more typical melt, which occurred gradually along a latitudinal gradient. We speculate that future melt timing will have greater frequency of early-season onset as climate change destabilizes the high-latitude atmosphere.

A synthesis dataset of permafrost-affected soil thermal conditions for Alaska, USA

Recent observations of near-surface soil temperatures over the circumpolar Arctic show accelerated warming of permafrost-affected soils. A comprehensive near-surface permafrost temperature dataset is critical to better understand climate impacts and to constrain permafrost thermal conditions and spatial distribution in land system models. We compiled a soil temperatures dataset from 72 monitoring stations in Alaska using data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Park Service, and the University of Alaska-Fairbanks permafrost monitoring networks. The array of monitoring stations spans 5 a large range of latitudes from 60.9◦N to 71.3◦N and elevations from near sea level to 1327 m, comprising tundra and boreal forest regions. This dataset consists of monthly ground temperatures at depth up to 1 m, volumetric soil water content, snow depth, and air temperature during 1997 2016. Due to the remoteness and harsh conditions, many stations have missing data. Overall, this dataset consists of 41,667 monthly values. These data have been quality controlled in collection and processing. Meanwhile, we implemented data harmonization validation for the processed dataset. The final product (PF-AK, v0.1) is 10 available at the Arctic Data Center (https://doi.org/10.18739/A2KG55).