Gary D. Clow

Large arctic temperature change at the Wisconsin-Holocene glacial transition

Analysis of borehole temperature and Greenland Ice Sheet Project II ice-core isotopic composition reveals that the warming from average glacial conditions to the Holocene in central Greenland was large, approximately 15°C. This is at least three times the coincident temperature change in the tropics and mid-latitudes. The coldest periods of the last glacial were probably 21°C colder than at present over the Greenland ice sheet.

Temperature, accumulation, and ice sheet elevation in central Greenland through the last deglacial transition

We present a combined heat- and ice-flow model, constrained by measurements of temperature in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) borehole and by the GISP2 δ18O record and depth-age scale, which determines a history of temperature, accumulation rate, and ice sheet elevation for the past 50,000 years in central Greenland. Important results are: that the temperature increase from average glacial to Holocene conditions was large, approximately 15°C, with a 20°C warming from late glacial to Holocene; that the average accumulation rate during the last glacial maximum (between 15 and 30 kyr B. P.) was 5.5 to 7 cm yr−1, approximately 25% of the modern accumulation rate; that long-term (500–1000 years) averaged accumulation rate and temperature have been inversely correlated during the most recent 7 millennia of the Holocene; and that the Greenland Ice Sheet probably thickened during the deglacial transition. The inverse correlation of accumulation rate and temperature in the mid and late Holocene suggests that the Greenland Ice Sheet is more prone to volume reduction in a warmed climate than previously thought and demonstrates that accumulation rate is not a reliable proxy for temperature. The elevation history of the ice sheet is poorly constrained by the model, and independent evidence is needed. We also present a simple estimate of the response time for thinning of the interior region of an ice sheet due to retreat of its margins. This was approximately 1900 years for central Greenland during deglaciation.

Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response

The average air temperature at the Earths surface has increased by 0.06 °C per decade during the 20th century, and by 0.19 °C per decade from 1979 to 1998. Climate models generally predict amplified warming in polar regions, as observed in Antarcticas peninsula region over the second half of the 20th century. Although previous reports suggest slight recent continental warming, our spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn. The McMurdo Dry Valleys have cooled by 0.7 °C per decade between 1986 and 2000, with similar pronounced seasonal trends. Summer cooling is particularly important to Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems that are poised at the interface of ice and water. Here we present data from the dry valleys representing evidence of rapid terrestrial ecosystem response to climate cooling in Antarctica, including decreased primary productivity of lakes (6–9% per year) and declining numbers of soil invertebrates (more than 10% per year). Continental Antarctic cooling, especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of climate and ecosystem change.

Climatological Observations and Predicted Sublimation Rates at Lake Hoare, Antarctica

In December 1985, an automated meteorological station was established at Lake Hoare in the dry valley region of Antarctica. Here, we report on the first year-round observations available for any site in Taylor Valley. This dataset augments the year-round data obtained at Lake Vanda (Wright Valley) by winter-over crews during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The mean annual solar flux at Lake Hoare was 92 W m-2 during 1986, the mean air temperature -17.3 degrees C, and the mean 3-m wind speed 3.3 m s-1. The local climate is controlled by the wind regime during the 4-month sunless winter and by seasonal and diurnal variations in the incident solar flux during the remainder of the year. Temperature increases of 20 degrees-30 degrees C are frequently observed during the winter due to strong föhn winds descending from the Polar Plateau. A model incorporating nonsteady molecular diffusion into Kolmogorov-scale eddies in the interfacial layer and similarity-theory flux-profiles in the surface sublayer, is used to determine the rate of ice sublimation from the acquired meteorological data. Despite the frequent occurrence of strong winter föhns, the bulk of the annual ablation occurs during the summer due to elevated temperatures and persistent moderate winds. The annual ablation from Lake Hoare is estimated to have been 35.0 +/- 6.3 cm for 1986.

Martian channels and valleys: Their characteristics, distribution, and age

Abstract All Martian channels and valleys visible at a resolution of 125 to 300 meters between 65°N and 65°S were mapped at a scale of 1:5,000,000 and the maps then digitized. Correlations of valley presence with other surface features show that almost all valleys are in the old cratered terrain. preferentially in areas of low albedo, low violet/red ratios, and high elevation. The networks are open, the individual drainage basins are small relative to Earth, and large distances separate the basins, features which all suggest an immature drainage system. The simplest explanation of the correlations and the restriction of valley networks to old terrain is that the channels themselves are old, and that the climatic conditions necessary for their formation did not prevail for long after the decline in the cratering rate around 3.9 billion years ago. Two types of outflow channel are distinguished: unconfined, in which broad swaths of terrain are scoured, and confined, in which flow is restricted to discrete channels. The outflow channels have a wide range of ages and may form under present climatic conditions. Fretted channels are largely restrited to two latitude belts centered on 40°N and 45°S, where relatively rapid erosion along escarpments results from mass wasting. They probably form by enlargement of preexisting channels by escarpment retreat.

Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing

The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes.

Generation of liquid water on Mars through the melting of a dusty snowpack

Abstract The possibility that snowmelt could have provided liquid water for valley network formation early in the history of Mars is investigated using an optical-thermal model developed for dusty snowpacks at temperate latitudes. The heating of the postulated snow is assumed to be driven primarily by the absorption of solar radiation during clear sky conditions. Radiative heating rates are predicted as a function of depth and shown to be sensitive to the dust concentration and the size of the ice grains while the thermal conductivity is controlled by temperature, atmospheric pressure, and bulk density. Rates of metamorphism indicate that fresh fine-grained snow on Mars would evolve into moderately coarse snow during a single summer season. Results from global climate models are used to constrain the mean-annual surface temperatures for snow and the atmospheric exchange terms in the surface energy balance. Mean-annual temperatures within Martian snowpacks fail to reach the melting point for all atmospheric pressures below 1000 mbar despite a predicted temperature enhancement beneath the surface of the snowpacks. When seasonal and diurnal variations in the incident solar flux are included in the model, melting occurs at midday during the summer for a wide range of snow types and atmospheric pressures if the dust levels in the snow exceed 100 ppmw (parts per million by weight). The optimum dust concentration appears to be about 1000 ppmw. With this dust load, melting can occur in the upper few centimeters of a dense coarse-grained snow at atmospheric pressures as low as 7 mbar. Snowpack thickness and the thermal conductivity of the underlying substrate determine whether the generated snow-melt can penetrate to the snowpack base, survive basal ice formation, and subsequently become available for runoff. Under favorable conditions, liquid water becomes available for runoff at atmospheric pressures as low as 30 to 100 mbar if the substrate is composed of regolith, as is expected in the ancient cratered terrain of Mars.

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

The extent of temporal smearing in surface-temperature histories derived from borehole temperature measurements

Abstract The ability of borehole temperature data to resolve past climatic events is investigated using Backus-Gilbert inversion methods. Two experimental approaches are considered: (1) the data consist of a single borehole temperature profile, and (2) the data consist of climatically-induced temperature transients measured within a borehole during a monitoring experiment. The sensitivity of the datas resolving power to the vertical distribution of the measurements, temperature measurement errors, the inclusion of a local meteorological record, and the duration of a monitoring experiment, are investigated. The results can be used to help interpret existing surface temperature histories derived from borehole temperature data and to optimize future experiments for the detection of climatic signals.

Stability of sulfur slopes on Io

Abstract The mechanical properties of elemental sulfur are such that the upper crust of Io cannot be primarily sulfur. For heat flows in the range 100–1000 ergs cm−2, sec−1, sulfur becomes ductile within several hundred meters of the surface and would prevent the formation of calderas with depths greater than this. However, the one caldera for which precise depth data are available is 2 km deep, and this value may be typical. A study of the mechanical equilibrium of simple slopes shows that the depth to the zone of rapid ductile flow strongly controls the maximum heights for sulfur slopes. Sulfur scarps with heights greater than 1 km will fail for all heat flows greater than 180 ergs cm−2 sec−1 and slope angles greater than 22.5°. The observed relief on Io is inconsistent with that anticipated for a predominantly sulfur crust. However, a silicate crust with several percent sulfur included satisfies both the mechanical constraints and the observed presence of sulfur on Io.