Franklin R. Robertson

MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications

AbstractThe Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) was undertaken by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office with two primary objectives: to place observations from NASA’s Earth Observing System satellites into a climate context and to improve upon the hydrologic cycle represented in earlier generations of reanalyses. Focusing on the satellite era, from 1979 to the present, MERRA has achieved its goals with significant improvements in precipitation and water vapor climatology. Here, a brief overview of the system and some aspects of its performance, including quality assessment diagnostics from innovation and residual statistics, is given.By comparing MERRA with other updated reanalyses [the interim version of the next ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)], advances made in this new generation of reanalyses, as well as remaining deficiencies, are identified. Although there is little difference between the new reanalyses i...

Evaluation of Global Precipitation in Reanalyses

Abstract Retrospective-analysis (or reanalysis) systems merge observations and models to provide global four-dimensional earth system data encompassing many physical and dynamical processes. Precipitation is one critical diagnostic that is not only sensitive to the observing system and model physics, but also reflects the general circulation. Climate records of observed precipitation through a merged satellite and gauge dataset provide a reference for comparison, though not without their own uncertainty. In this study, five reanalyses precipitation fields are compared with two observed data products to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the reanalyses. Taylor diagrams show the skill of the reanalyses relative to the reference dataset. While there is a general sense that the reanalyses precipitation data are improving in recent systems, it is not always the case. In some ocean regions, NCEP–NCAR reanalysis spatial patterns are closer to observed precipitation than NCEP–Department of Energy. The 40-yr E...

Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA

AbstractReanalyses, retrospectively analyzing observations over climatological time scales, represent a merger between satellite observations and models to provide globally continuous data and have improved over several generations. Balancing the earth’s global water and energy budgets has been a focus of research for more than two decades. Models tend to their own climate while remotely sensed observations have had varying degrees of uncertainty. This study evaluates the latest NASA reanalysis, the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from a global water and energy cycles perspective, to place it in context of previous work and demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses.MERRA was configured to provide complete budgets in its output diagnostics, including the incremental analysis update (IAU), the term that represents the observations influence on the analyzed states, alongside the physical flux terms. Precipitation in reanalyses is typically sensitive to the observationa...

Lidar-Measured Winds from Space: A Key Component for Weather and Climate Prediction

Abstract The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown 1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and 2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substantially improve...

Rain Reevaporation, Boundary Layer Convection Interactions, and Pacific Rainfall Patterns in an AGCM

Abstract Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) show that parameterized rain reevaporation has a large impact on simulated precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific, especially on the configuration of the model’s intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Weak reevaporation leads to the formation of a “double ITCZ” during the northern warm season. The double ITCZ is accompanied by strong correlation between precipitation and high-frequency vertical motion in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Strong reevaporation leads to a better overall agreement of simulated precipitation with observations. The model’s double ITCZ bias is reduced. At the same time, correlation between high-frequency (periods < 15 days) vertical motion in the PBL and precipitation is reduced. Experiments with modified physics indicate that evaporative cooling by rain near the PBL top weakens the coupling between precipitation-related heating and vertical motion in high-frequency motions. The stren...

The Effect of Satellite Observing System Changes on MERRA Water and Energy Fluxes

AbstractLike all reanalysis efforts, the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) must contend with an inhomogeneous observing network. Here the effects of the two most obvious observing system epoch changes, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) series in late 1998 and, to a lesser extent, the earlier advent of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) in late 1987 are examined. These sensor changes affect model moisture and enthalpy increments and thus water and energy fluxes, since the latter result from model physics processes that respond sensitively to state variable forcing. Inclusion of the analysis increments in the MERRA dataset is a unique feature among reanalyses that facilitates understanding the relationships between analysis forcing and flux response.In stepwise fashion in time, the vertically integrated global-mean moisture increments change sign from drying to moistening and heating increments drop nearly 15 W m−2 over the 30 plus years of the as...

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

Introduction Conclusions References

Derived Over-Ocean Water Vapor Transports from Satellite-Retrieved E − P Datasets

Abstract A methodology is developed for deriving atmospheric water vapor transports over the World Oceans from satellite-retrieved precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) datasets. The motivation for developing the method is to understand climatically varying properties of transports, that is, year-to-year changes of the seasonally averaged divergent transport distribution fields, over regions where conventional data, in particular, winds, are sparse. Ultimately, the method is intended to take advantage of the relatively complete and consistent coverage, as well as continuity in sampling, associated with E − P datasets obtained from satellite measurements. Separate P and E retrievals from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements, along with P retrievals from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) measurements, are used to obtain the transport solutions. In this opening study, a 7-yr climatological normal is derived for the January–February–March (JFM) period for years 1988–94, providing the ...

Atmospheric Water Balance and Variability in the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

AbstractClosing and balancing Earth’s global water cycle remains a challenge for the climate community. Observations are limited in duration, global coverage, and frequency, and not all water cycle terms are adequately observed. Reanalyses aim to fill the gaps through the assimilation of as many atmospheric water vapor observations as possible. Former generations of reanalyses have demonstrated a number of systematic problems that have limited their use in climate studies, especially regarding low-frequency trends. This study characterizes the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) water cycle relative to contemporary reanalyses and observations. MERRA-2 includes measures intended to minimize the spurious global variations related to inhomogeneity in the observational record. The global balance and cycling of water from ocean to land is presented, with special attention given to the water vapor analysis increment and the effects of the changing observing s...

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

AbstractTurbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere–ocean interface are fundamental components of the earth’s energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere–ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product in terms of its turbulent surface fluxes. This assessment employs a large dataset of directly measured turbulent fluxes as well as other turbulent surface flux datasets. The spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes are examined in terms of their annual-mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed thr...