Robert J. Oglesby

Temporal and spatial patterns of Holocene dune activity on the Great Plains of North America: megadroughts and climate links

Abstract The Holocene record of eolian sand and loess deposition is reviewed for numerous presently stabilized dune fields on the Great Plains of North America. Dune field activity reflects decade-to-century-scale dominance of drought that exceeded historic conditions, with a growing season deficit of precipitation >25%. The largest dune fields, the Nebraska Sand Hills and ergs in eastern Colorado, Kansas and the Southern High Plains showed peak activity sometime between ca. 7 and 5 cal. ka. Loess deposition between ca. 10 and 4 cal. ka also signifies widespread aridity. Most dune fields exhibit evidence for one or more reactivation events sometime in the past 2 cal. ka; a number of localities register two events post 1 cal. ka, the latest potentially after 1400 AD. However, there is not a clear association of the latest dune remobilization events with up to 13 droughts in the past 2 cal. ka identified in dendroclimatic and lacustrine records. Periods of persistent drought are associated with a La Nina-dominated climate state, with cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and later of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico that significantly weakens cyclogenesis over central North America. As drought proceeds, reduced soil moisture and vegetation cover would lessen evaporative cooling and increase surface temperatures. These surface changes strengthen the eastward expansion of a high-pressure ridge aloft and shift the jet stream northward, further enhancing continent-wide drought. Uncertainty persists if dune fields will reactivate in the future at a scale similar to the Holocene because of widespread irrigation, the lack of migratory bison herds, and the suppression of prairie fires, all of which enhance stabilization of dune fields in the Great Plains.

Soil Moisture and the Persistence of North American Drought

Abstract We describe numerical sensitivity experiments exploring the effects of soil moisture on North American summertime climate using the NCAR CCMI, a 12-layer global atmospheric general circulation model. In particular. the hypothesis that reduced soil moisture may help induce and amplify warm, dry summers over midlatitude continental interiors is examined. Equilibrium climate statistics are computed for the perpetual July model response to imposed soil moisture anomalies over North America between 36° and 49°N. In addition, the persistence of imposed soil moisture anomalies is examined through use of the seasonal cycle mode of operation with use of various initial atmospheric states both equilibrated and nonequilibrated to the initial soil moisture anomaly. The climate statistics generated by thew model simulations resemble in a general way those of the summer of 1988, when extensive heat and drought occurred over much of North America. A reduction in soil moisture in the model leads to an increase i...

Lake sediments record large-scale shifts in moisture regimes across the northern prairies of North America during the past two millennia

Six high-resolution climatic reconstructions, based on diatom analyses from lake sediment cores from the northern prairies of North America, show that shifts in drought conditions on decadal through multicentennial scales have prevailed in this region for at least the last two millennia. The predominant broad-scale pattern seen at all sites is a major shift in moisture regimes from wet to dry, or vice versa (depending on location), that occurred after a period of relative stability. These large-scale shifts at the different sites exhibit spatial coherence at regional scales. The three Canadian sites record this abrupt shift between anno Domini 500 and 800, and subsequently conditions become increasingly variable. All three U.S. sites underwent a pronounced change, but the timing of this change is between anno Domini 1000 and 1300, thus later than in all of the Canadian sites. The mechanisms behind these patterns are poorly understood, but they are likely related to changes in the shape and location of the jet stream and associated storm tracks. If the patterns seen at these sites are representative of the region, this observed pattern can have huge implications for future water availability in this region.

Paleoclimatic significance of Late Quaternary eolian deposition on the Piedmont and High Plains, Central United States

Abstract Presently stabilized dune systems on the piedmont of eastern Colorado and adjacent High Plains have been repeatedly re-activated during the past 20,000 years. Radiocarbon and thermoluminescence age estimates indicate eolian activity late in the last glacial cycle ca. 20,000–12,000 yr B.P. and subsequent episodes of dune reactivation at ca. 6000, 4500 and 1000 yr B.P. Pollen analysis from aggraded buried soil A horizons show a shift from grasses and shrubs to goosefoot, a disturbance indicator. The association of maximum goosefoot levels with the coarsest part of the buried A horizon immediately prior to burial by eolian sand indicates a substantial reduction in grass and dominance of shrubs with onset of eolian activity. The vegetation change and eolian depositional sequence indicates a reduction in plant coverage with regional drought, possibly augmented by bison grazing and surface heating effects. We infer an increase in summer monsoonal precipitation between 13,000 and 9000 yr B.P. reflecting a heightened land-to-sea temperature gradient associated with rising summer solar-insolation values and a meltwater cooled Gulf of Mexico. Dune reactivation in the middle and late Holocene appears to be independent of summer insolation values, but rather reflects a small (

Polar MM5 Simulations of the Winter Climate of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at the LGM

Optimized regional climate simulations are conducted using the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University‐NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), with a 60-km horizontal resolution domain over North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 calendar years ago), when much of the continent was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). The objective is to describe the LGM annual cycle at high spatial resolution with an emphasis on the winter atmospheric circulation. Output from a tailored NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulation of the LGM climate is used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for Polar MM5. LGM boundary conditions include continental ice sheets, appropriate orbital forcing, reduced CO2 concentration, paleovegetation, modified sea surface temperatures, and lowered sea level. Polar MM5 produces a substantially different atmospheric response to the LGM boundary conditions than CCM3 and other recent GCM simulations. In particular, from November to April the upper-level flow is split around a blocking anticyclone over the LIS, with a northern branch over the Canadian Arctic and a southern branch impacting southern North America. The split flow pattern is most pronounced in January and transitions into a single, consolidated jet stream that migrates northward over the LIS during summer. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the winter split flow in Polar MM5 is primarily due to mechanical forcing by LIS, although model physics and resolution also contribute to the simulated flow configuration. Polar MM5 LGM results are generally consistent with proxy climate estimates in the western United States, Alaska, and the Canadian Arctic and may help resolve some long-standing discrepancies between proxy data and previous simulations of the LGM climate.

Springtime Soil Moisture, Natural Climatic Variability, and North American Drought as Simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model 1

Abstract Previous results concerning the role that summertime soil moisture reductions can play in amplifying or maintaining North American droughts are extended to include the role of springtime soil moisture reductions and the role that natural climatic variability, as expressed in soil moisture can play. General circulation model (GCM) simulations with the NCAR Community Climate Model have been made with initial desert-like soil moisture anomalies imposed on 1 May and on 1 March. The May simulation maintained the imposed anomaly throughout the summer, while in the March simulation the anomaly was ameliorated within one month. Thus, the timing of soil moisture reductions may be crucial. A 10-year model control) integration with prescribed sea surface temperatures yielded 1 year with late spring and summer soil moisture values similar to those of the 1 May anomaly simulation. This suggests that occasional widespread North American droughts may be an inherent feature of at 1east the GCM employed for this ...

An improved snow hydrology for GCMs. Part 1: snow cover fraction, albedo, grain size, and age

Abstract. A new, physically-based snow hydrology has been implemented into the NCAR CCM1. The snow albedo is based on snow depth, solar zenith angle, snow cover pollutants, cloudiness, and a new parameter, the snow grain size. Snow grain size in turn depends on temperature and snow age. An improved expression is used for fractional snow cover which relates it to surface roughness and to snow depth. Each component of the new snow hydrology was implemented separately and then combined to make a new control run integrated for ten seasonal cycles. With the new snow hydrology, springtime snow melt occurs more rapidly, leading to a more reasonable late spring and summer distribution of snow cover. Little impact is seen on winter snow cover, since the new hydrology affects snow melt directly, but snowfall only indirectly, if at all. The influence of the variable grain size appears more important when snow packs are relatively deep while variable fractional snow cover becomes increasingly important as the snow pack thins. Variable surface roughness affects the snow cover fraction directly, but shows little effect on the seasonal cycle of the snow line. As an applicaion of the new snow hydrology, we have rerun simulations involving Antarctic and Northern Hemisphere glaciation; these simulations were previously made with CCM1 and the old snow hydrology. Relatively little difference is seen for Antarctica, but a profound difference occurs for the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, ice sheets computed using net snow accumulations from the GCM are more numerous and larger in extent with the new snow hydrology. The new snow hydrology leads to a better simulation of the seasonal cycle of snow cover, however, our primary goal in implementing it into the GCM is to improve the predictive capabilities of the model. Since the snow hydrology is based on fundamental physical processes, and has well-defined parameters, it should enable model simulations of climatic change in which we have increased confidence.

Sensitivity of equilibrium surface temperature of CCM3 to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2

We have redone our computations of the equilibrium response of surface temperature to atmospheric CO2 concentrations using the latest version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (version 3 rather than version 1). Eight GCM simulations with CO2 concentrations varying from 180 to 3000 ppmv were conducted with CCM3 compared to six CO2 concentrations with CCM1. A preliminary examination of the CCM3 simulations showed the same basic non-linear behaviour of temperature to CO2 concentrations obtained previously with CCM1. The magnitude of the sensitivities, however, were much lower in the new CCM3 runs than in the older CCM1 runs. Four possible reasons for the reduced sensitivity in CCM3 are discussed.

Sensitivity of a general circulation model to changes in northern hemisphere ice sheets

Sensitivity experiments with a general circulation model demonstrate the role of ice sheet size on the local, regional, and global climate. Model experiments isolate the effects of albedo, height, and area of the ice sheets and show how the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model 1 responds to changes in the size of northern hemisphere ice sheets. A flat ice sheet with full glacial areal extent but no elevation is used to study albedo effects. A full ice sheet with full glacial areal extent and elevation is used to represent height effects. An ice sheet with half the glacial area of the others but the full glacial elevation is used to represent area effects. All of the sensitivity experiments have (1) interactive sea surface temperatures calculated by a slab ocean and (2) modern boundary conditions except for the ice sheets. The experiments show that both the full and flat ice sheets lower the global mean surface temperatures (GMT) by 2.5°C and that the GMT is dependent upon the area, rather than the height, of the ice sheets. High ice sheets maintain colder temperatures than lower ice sheets over the ice sheets themselves, but compensating warmer temperatures occur downstream from the high ice sheets. The downstream warmer temperatures are the result of (1) glacial anticyclones that cause subsidence and reduced cloud cover during summer as well as reduced soil moisture and (2) increased southwesterly flow across the Atlantic Ocean that results in increased southerly advection of warm air during winter. A dynamical effect of the high ice sheets during summer is to change the wave number of the planetary waves in the midlatitudes, whereas a thermodynamic effect of the flat ice sheets during summer is to lower the geopotential heights throughout the northern hemisphere. In general, northern hemisphere ice sheets induce both a local response over the ice sheets and a regional response downstream from the ice sheets but have little impact on the southern hemisphere except where sea ice expands.

Variations in North American Summer Precipitation Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Understanding the development and variation of the atmospheric circulation regimes driven by the Atlantic multidecadaloscillation(AMO)isessentialbecausethesecirculationsinteractwithotherforcingsondecadaland interannual time scales. Collectively, they determine the summer (June, July, and August) precipitation variations for North America. In this study, a general circulation model (GCM) is used to obtain such understanding, with a focus on physical processes connecting the AMO and the summertime precipitation regime change in NorthAmerica.Twoexperimentalrunsareconductedwithseasurfacetemperature(SST)anomaliesimposedin the North Atlantic Ocean that represent the warm and cold phases of the AMO. Climatological SSTs are used elsewhere in the oceans. Model results yield summertime precipitation anomalies in North America closely matching the observed anomaly patterns in North America, suggesting that the AMO provides a fundamental control on summertime precipitation in North America at decadal time scales. The impacts of the AMO are achieved by a chain of events arising from different circulation anomalies during warm and cold phases of the AMO. During the warm phase, the North Atlantic subtropical high pressure system (NASH) weakens, and the North American continent is much less influenced by it. A massive body of warm air develops over the heated land in North America from June‐August, associated with high temperature and low pressure anomalies in the lowertroposphereandhighpressureanomaliesintheuppertroposphere.Incontrast,duringthecoldphaseofthe AMO, the North American continent, particularly to the west, is much more influenced by an enhanced NASH. Cooler temperatures and high pressure anomalies prevail in the lower troposphere, and a frontal zone forms in the upper troposphere. These different circulation anomalies further induce a three-cell circulation anomaly pattern over North America in the warm and cold phases of the AMO. In particular, during the cold phase, the three-cell circulation anomaly pattern features a broad region of anomalous low-level southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico into the U.S. Great Plains. Superimposed with an upper-troposphere front, more frequent summertime storms develop and excess precipitation occurs over most of North America. A nearly reversed condition occurs during the warm phase of the AMO, yielding drier conditions in North America. This new understandingprovides a foundation for further studyand better prediction of the variations of North American summer precipitation, especially when modulated by other multidecadal variations—for example, the Pacific decadal oscillation and interannual variations associated with the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation.