G. K. Walker

Intercomparison and evaluation of cumulus parametrizations under summertime midlatitude continental conditions

This study reports the Single-Column Model (SCM) part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)/the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Study (GCSS) joint SCM and Cloud-Resolving Model (CRM) Case 3 intercomparison study, with a focus on evaluation of cumulus parametrizations used in SCMs. Fifteen SCMs are evaluated under summertime midlatitude continental conditions using data collected at the ARM Southern Great Plains site during the summer 1997 Intensive Observing Period. Results from ten CRMs are also used to diagnose problems in the SCMs. It is shown that most SCMs can generally capture well the convective events that were well-developed within the SCM domain, while most of them have difficulties in simulating the occurrence of those convective events that only occurred within a small part of the domain. All models significantly underestimate the surface stratiform precipitation. A third of them produce large errors in surface precipitation and thermodynamic structures. Deficiencies in convective triggering mechanisms are thought to be one of the major reasons. Using a triggering mechanism that is based on the vertical integral of parcel buoyant energy without additional appropriate constraints results in overactive convection, which in turn leads to large systematic warm/dry biases in the troposphere. It is also shown that a non-penetrative convection scheme can underestimate the depth of instability for midlatitude convection, which leads to large systematic cold/moist biases in the troposphere. SCMs agree well quantitatively with CRMs in the updraught mass fluxes, while most models significantly underestimate the downdraught mass fluxes. Neglect of mesoscale updraught and downdraught mass fluxes in the SCMs contributes considerably to the discrepancies between the SCMs and the CRMs. In addition, uncertainties in the diagnosed mass fluxes in the CRMs and deficiencies with cumulus parametrizations are not negligible. Similar results are obtained in the sensitivity tests when different forcing approaches are used. Finally, sensitivity tests from an SCM indicate that its simulations can be greatly improved when its triggering mechanism and closure assumption are improved.

A comparison of single column model simulations of summertime midlatitude continental convection

Eleven different single-column models (SCMs) and one cloud ensemble model (CEM) are driven by boundary conditions observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program southern Great Plains site for a 17 day period during the summer of 1995. Comparison of the model simulations reveals common signatures identifiable as products of errors in the boundary conditions. Intermodel differences in the simulated temperature, humidity, cloud, precipitation, and radiative fluxes reflect differences in model resolution or physical parameterizations, although sensitive dependence on initial conditions can also contribute to intermodel differences. All models perform well at times but poorly at others. Although none of the SCM simulations stands out as superior to the others, the simulation by the CEM is in several respects in better agreement with the observations than the simulations by the SCMs. Nudging of the simulated temperature and humidity toward observations generally improves the simulated cloud and radiation fields as well as the simulated temperature and humidity but degrades the precipitation simulation for models with large temperature and humidity biases without nudging. Although some of the intermodel differences have not been explained, others have been identified as model problems that can be or have been corrected as a result of the comparison.

Biogeophysical Consequences of a Tropical Deforestation Scenario: A GCM Simulation Study

Abstract Two 3-year (1979–1982) integrations were carried out with a version of the GLA GCM that contains the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) for simulating land-atmosphere interactions. The control case used the usual SiB vegetation cover (comprising 12 vegetation types), while its twin, the deforestation case, imposed a scenario in which all tropical rainforests were entirely replaced by grassland. Except for this difference, all other initial and prescribed boundary conditions were kept identical in both integrations. An intercomparison of the integrations shows that tropical deforestation • decreases evapotranspiration and increases land surface outgoing longwave radiation and sensible heat flux, thereby warming and drying the planetary boundary layer. This happens despite the reduced absorption of solar radiation due to higher surface albedo of the deforested land. • produces significant and robust local as well as global climate changes. The local effect includes significant changes (mostly reductions)...

Mechanisms regulating sea-surface temperatures and deep convection in the tropics

Scientific basis for the emergence of deep convection in the tropics at or above 28°C sea-surface temperature (SST), and its proximity to the highest observed SST of about 30°C, is explained from first principles of moist convection and TOGA-COARE data. Our calculations show that SST of 28-29°C is needed for charging the cloud-base airmass with the required moist static energy for clouds to reach the upper troposphere (i.e., 200 hPa). Besides reducing solar irradiation by cloud-cover, moist convection also produces cool and dry downdrafts, which promote oceanic cooling by increased sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface. Consequently, the tropical ocean seesaws between the states of net energy absorber before, and net energy supplier after, the deep moist convection, which causes the SST to vacillate between 28° and 30°C. While dynamics of the large-scale circulation embodying the easterly waves and Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs) modulate moist convection, we show that the quasi-stationary vertical profile of moist static energy of the tropics is the ultimate cause of the upper limit on tropical SSTs.

Effects of Cloud Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes and Intraseasonal Variability

Abstract The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud microphysics is investigated using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM). Results show that a faster autoconversion rate leads to (a) enhanced deep convection in the climatological convective zones anchored to tropical land regions; (b) more warm rain, but less cloud over oceanic regions; and (c) an increased convective-to-stratiform rain ratio over the entire Tropics. Fewer clouds enhance longwave cooling and reduce shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces more condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical differential heating destabilizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain and an enhanced atmospheric water cycle over the Tropics. The feedback is maintained via secondary circulations between convective tower and anvil regions (cold rain), and adjacent middle-to-low cloud (warm rain) regions. The l...

Relative Importance of the Annual Cycles of Sea Surface Temperature and Solar Irradiance for Tropical Circulation and Precipitation: A Climate Model Simulation Study

Abstract A recent version of the Goddard Earth Observing System GCM which contains several upgrades to the models prognostic cloud physics and microphysics as well as snow and ice hydrology, was used to isolate the influences of the annual cycles of solar irradiation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the annual cycle of circulation and precipitation. Four 50-month-long integrations were produced with the GCM. The first integration, called the control simulation, C, was forced with daily interpolated SSTs from a 30-yr climatology of monthly SST data. In this simulation both SSTs and incoming solar irradiance had their normally prescribed annual cycles. The next two companion simulations were called S1, which used annual mean prescribed incoming solar irradiation, and S2, which used annual mean prescribed SST; everything else was kept similar to C in these two simulations. In the fourth simulation, called S3, both SSTs and incoming solar irradiation at the top of the atmosphere were prescribed to alwa...

Climatology and natural variability of the global hydrologic cycle in the GLA atmospheric general circulation model

Time average climatology and low-frequency variabilities of the global hydrologic cycle (GHC) in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) were investigated in the present work. A 730-day experiment was conducted with the GLA GCM forced by insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow undergoing climatological annual cycles. Influences of interactive soil moisture on time average climatology and natural variability of the GHC were also investigated by conducting 365-day experiments with and without interactive soil moisture. Insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow were fixed at their July levels in the latter two experiments. Results show that the models time average hydrologic cycle variables for July in all three experiments agree reasonably well with observations. Except in the case of precipitable water, the zonal average climates of the annual cycle experiment and the two perpetual July experiments are alike, i.e., their differences are within limits of the natural variability of the models climate. Statistics of various components of the GHC, i.e., water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation, are significantly affected by the presence of interactive soil moisture. Even with fixed external conditions, the GHC exhibits a variety of low-frequency natural variabilities. A long-term trend is found in the principal empirical modes of variability of ground wetness, evaporation, and sensible heat. Dominant modes of variability of these quantities over land are physically consistent with one another and with land surface energy balance requirements. The dominant empirical modes of ground wetness variability in the annual cycle and perpetual July experiments have similar spatial patterns. The dominant mode of precipitation variability is found to be closely related to organized convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The precipitation variability has timescales in the range of 2 to 3 months and can be identified with the stationary component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The precipitation mode is not sensitive to the presence of interactive soil moisture but is closely linked to both the rotational and divergent components of atmospheric moisture transport. The present results indicate that globally coherent natural variability of the GHC in the GLA GCM has two basic timescales in the absence of annual cycles of external forcings: a long-term trend associated with atmosphere-soil moisture interaction which affects the model atmosphere mostly over midlatitude continental regions and a large-scale 2- to 3-month variability associated with atmospheric moist processes over the western Pacific Ocean.

Impact of Arabian Sea pollutions on the Bay of Bengal winter monsoon rains

Accumulation of pollution over the southern Arabian Sea has been documented in numerous studies that followed the INDOEX field project of 1992. In this paper we show several examples of this feature from the MODIS/CALIPSO data sets. We identify this feature as the Bombay Plume that makes its way into the Arabian Sea from the west coast of India. A second part of this work is on the modeling of the impacts of pollutions. For this purpose we use a NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model to carry out many comparative forecast experiments that include the pollution based on MODIS and control runs that utilize climatological estimates of pollutions. The model includes both the direct and indirect effects of aerosols. We noted that: a) The Arabian Sea experience above normal rain during these periods for the MODIS experiments as compared to the control. b) The most interesting feature in these results is the documentation of a divergent outflow center, in the upper troposphere, over regions of the Arabian Sea pollutions when tropospheric aerosol heating is noted. c) An important related feature is a compensating downward lobe with a divergent inflow center over the Bay of Bengal. d) The presence of this downward lobe over the Bay of Bengal shows a reduction of winter monsoon rains over the south-east coast of India. e) We also show observational evidence of reduced winter monsoon rains over the south-east coast of India during MODIS pollution events from raingauge based estimates.