Gail Piatkowski

Standard assessments of frailty are validated predictors of mortality in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis

The risk of morbidity and mortality for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis is high and incompletely captured by conventional indices. We sought to evaluate the predictive role of frailty in an observational cohort study of inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis between 2010 and 2013. The primary outcome was 90‐day mortality. Secondary outcomes included discharge to a rehabilitation hospital, 30‐day readmission, and length of stay. Frailty was assessed with three metrics: activities of daily living (ADL), the Braden Scale, and the Morse fall risk score. A predictive model was validated by randomly dividing the population into training and validation cohorts: 734 patients were admitted 1358 times in the study period. The overall 90‐day mortality was 18.3%. The 30‐day readmission rate was 26.6%, and the rate of discharge to a rehabilitation facility was 14.3%. Adjusting for sex, age, Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease, sodium, and Charlson index, the odds ratio for the effect of an ADL score of less than 12 of 15 on mortality is 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05‐3.20). A predictive model for 90‐day mortality including ADL and Braden Scale yielded C statistics of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80‐0.86) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.71‐0.83) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Discharge to a rehabilitation hospital is predicted by both the ADL (<12) and Braden Scale (<16), with respective adjusted odds ratios of 3.78 (95% CI 1.97‐7.29) and 6.23 (95% CI 2.53‐15.4). Length of stay was associated with the Braden Scale (<16) (hazard ratio = 0.63, 95% CI 0.44‐0.91). No frailty measure was associated with 30‐day readmission. Conclusions: Readily available, standardized measures of frailty predict 90‐day mortality, length of stay, and rehabilitation needs for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2015;62:584–590

A Quality Improvement Initiative Reduces 30-Day Rate of Readmission for Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Many hospitalized patients with cirrhosis are readmitted to the hospital within 30 days, particularly those with hepatic encephalopathy (HE). We performed a prospective study to assess the effects of a quality improvement protocol on readmission to a transplant centers liver unit within 30 days. METHODS We studied the effects of a quality improvement program in 824 unique patients with decompensated cirrhosis or receiving liver transplants (mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, 17.7 ± 7.4) admitted to an inpatient hepatology unit from 2010 through 2013. The study had a year-long control period (626 admissions receiving usual care) and 2 intervention phases: a hand-held checklist phase (470 admissions) and an electronic phase that incorporated the checklist items into the electronic provider order entry system (624 admissions). The intervention phases included goal-directed lactulose therapy and rifaximin for overt HE, and prompts for antibiotic prophylaxis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. The primary endpoint was the difference in 30-day readmissions between the control and intervention phases. Trends in 30-day readmissions were compared with those of patients with decompensated cirrhosis admitted at another center. RESULTS During the electronic phase, study subjects had 40% lower adjusted odds of 30-day readmission than during the control period. The slope of the decline in readmissions over time was significantly greater than for patients at the other center (P < .0001). The proportion of patients with greater than grade 2 HE and 30-day readmission was 48.9% (66 of 135) in the control period versus 26.0% (27 of 104) in the electronic phase (P = .0003). Treatment of HE with rifaximin and secondary prophylaxis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis with antibiotics (on discharge) were associated with lower adjusted odds of readmission (odds ratios, 0.39 and 0.40, respectively). The electronic phase was associated with 1.34 fewer hospital days for HE compared with the control period (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS In a prospective study, a quality improvement initiative that included electronic decision support reduced readmissions of patients with cirrhosis to the hospital within 30 days.

Tricuspid Regurgitation and Mortality in Patients With Transvenous Permanent Pacemaker Leads.

Estimates of the prevalence and importance of significant tricuspid regurgitation (STR) related to implantable device leads are based mainly on case reports, small observational studies, or mixed samples that include defibrillators. We sought to assess whether patients with permanent pacemaker (PPM) leads have an increased risk of STR and to determine mortality associated with PPM-related TR in a large longitudinal single-center cohort. We examined the prevalence of STR (defined as moderate-severe or ≥3+) among all echocardiograms performed from 2005 to 2011 excluding those with defibrillators. We then examined mortality risk according to the prevalence of PPM and STR after adjusting for cardiac co-morbidities, left ventricular systolic/diastolic function, and pulmonary artery hypertension. We screened 93,592 echocardiograms (1,245 with PPM) in 58,556 individual patients (634 with PPM). The prevalence of STR was higher in patients after PPM placement (mean age 79 ± 3 years; 54% men) compared with those without a PPM (adjusted odds ratio 2.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.54 to 3.49; p <0.0001). Among patients with a PPM lead, the presence of STR was associated with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.40; 95% CI 1.04 to 2.11, p = 0.027, vs no STR). Compared with having neither a PPM lead nor STR, adjusted hazard ratios for death were 2.13 (95% CI 1.93 to 2.34) for STR but no PPM, 1.04 (0.89 to 1.22) for PPM without STR, and 1.55 (1.13 to 2.14) for PPM with STR. In conclusion, in a sample comprising >58,000 individual patients, PPM leads are associated with higher risk of STR after adjustment for left ventricular systolic/diastolic function and pulmonary artery hypertension; similarly to STR from other cardiac pathologies, PPM-related STR is associated with increased mortality.

Derivation and Validation of a 30-Day Heart Failure Readmission Model

In 2006, there were >1 million hospital admissions for heart failure (HF), and the estimated cost to the United States in 2009 was >

Serum ammonia in associated with transplant-free survival in hospitalized patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis

37.2 billion. Better models to target aggressive therapy to patients at the highest risk for readmission are clearly needed. We studied 3,413 consecutive admissions for HF based on discharge diagnosis codes from October 2007 to August 2011 from a single academic center. We randomly generated derivation and validation sets in a 3:1 ratio. We used generalized estimating equations to develop our models, accounting for repeated hospitalizations and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test to examine model calibration. The 30-day readmission rate was 24.2% in the derivation set. Of 25 candidate variables, the best fitting model included creatinine, troponin, hematocrit, and hyponatremia at discharge; race; zip code of residence; discharge hour; and number of hospitalizations in the previous year. Insignificant variables included intravenous diuretic use on day of discharge, discharge service, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, age, and gender. The risk of 30-day readmission increased with increasing decile of predicted risk in both the validation and derivation cohorts. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.69 in the derivation set and 0.66 in the validation set. In conclusion, we derived and validated a simple model relating discharge-specific characteristics at risk of 30-day readmission. Application of this approach may facilitate targeted intervention to reduce the burden of rehospitalization in patients with HF, but our results suggest that the best readmission models may require incorporation of both clinical and local system factors for optimal prediction.

The need for antibiotic stewardship and treatment standardization in the care of cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis – a retrospective cohort study examining the effect of ceftriaxone dosing

Background: As ammonia metabolism is a complex multiorgan process, we sought to determine whether serum ammonia concentrations were associated with transplant-free survival in patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Methods: We studied 494 consecutive patients hospitalized with cirrhosis between April 2007 and September 2012 with venous ammonia measured on hospital admission. The primary outcome was transplant-free survival. Results: Overall, rates of death or transplant within 30 and 90 days were 23.1% (n=114) and 37.7% (n=186), respectively. Forty-six patients (9.2%) underwent liver transplantation within 90 days. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, ammonia concentration was independently associated with death or transplantation within 30 and 90 days after adjusting for model for end-stage liver disease, sodium, white blood cells, and number of ACLF organ failures; every doubling of ammonia was associated with respective hazard ratios of 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.38) and 1.21 (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.44) for 90- and 30-day transplant or mortality. Notably, after adjusting for ammonia, organ failures were not predictive of outcomes. In a Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with admission ammonia concentrations >60 &mgr;mol/L had significantly lower 90-day transplant-free survival (P=0.0004). Patients with admission ammonia concentrations >60 &mgr;mol/L had higher 90- and 30-day risk of death or transplantation (45.2% vs. 31.2%, P=0.001; and 31.6% vs. 15.7%, P<0.0001, respectively). Conclusion: For patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis, an elevated serum ammonia concentration on admission is associated with reduced 90-day transplant-free survival after adjusting for established predictors.

Low Likelihood of Intracranial Hemorrhage in Patients With Cirrhosis and Altered Mental Status

Background: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a common, often fatal affliction for cirrhotic patients. Despite all clinical trials of ceftriaxone for SBP using 2g daily, it is often given at 1g daily. Aim: We evaluated survival after SBP as a function of ceftriaxone dosage. Methods: A retrospective cohort of all patients who received ceftriaxone for SBP (greater than 250 neutrophils in the ascites). Results: As opposed to 1 gram, median survival is longer for patients receiving 2 grams (228 days vs. 102 days (p = 0.26) and one year survival is significantly higher (p = 0.0034). After adjusting for baseline Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, however, this difference was no longer significant. Similarly, there was a significantly shorter length of intensive care for patients receiving 2 g (0.59 ± 1.78 days vs. 3.26 ± 6.9, p = 0.034), odds ratio 0.11 (95% CI 0.02 - 0.65). This difference, too, was no longer significant after controlling for the MELD score - odds ratio 0.21 (95% CI 0.04 - 1.07). Additionally, 70% of patients received at least one additional antibiotic; over 25 different medications were used in various combinations. Conclusions: Patients receiving 2 g of ceftriaxone may require fewer intensive care days and may enjoy an improved survival compared to those receiving 1 g daily. The complexity of antibiotic regimens to which cirrhotic patients are exposed must be studied further and rationalized. We recommend fastidious antibiotic stewardship for patients with cirrhosis. Efforts should be made to craft local standards for the treatment of SBP that include appropriate antibiotic selection and dose.