Gary A. Mauser

Convention tourism modelling

Abstract This paper introduces an approach for identifying the determinants of convention attendance at alternative cities. This approach permits planners to evaluate the relative importance of accessibility and attractiveness variables as determinants of convention attendance for each site. Four major convention sites in the USA are analysed to illustrate the procedure. In this example, accessibility was found to be far more important than attractiveness.

An Evaluation of the 1977 Canadian Firearms Legislation.

This article uses a pooled cross-section, time-series model to evaluate the effect of the 1977 Canadian firearms legislation on the provincial homicide rate between 1969 and 1989. This type of model was selected because of its ability to capture variation across space as well as time. The indices included in this model, measured at the provincial level, as independent variables are: unemployment rate, percentage Status Indian, percentage immigrant, percentage male youth, the clearance rate. The results are consistent with the findings of most previous studies that the 1977 Canadian firearms legislation did not have a significant effect on homicide rates. The strongest explanatory factors were percentage Status Indian and male youth.

The politics of gun control: comparing Canadian and American patterns

In this paper two questions are asked: To what extent do the Canadian and US publics differ in their beliefs about firearms-control legislation, and to what extent do these differences help to account for the stricter firearms legislation found in Canada? Surveys indicate that Canadians and Americans have remarkably similar attitudes towards firearms and gun control. Linear regression is used to analyze the factors that underlie the popular support for (or opposition to) stricter gun-control legislation. It is found that, with respect to support for gun control, cultural differences between Canadians and Americans are overshadowed by socioeconomic variables, such as gender and gun ownership. The similarities in public attitudes between Canadians and Americans suggest that the explanation for stricter firearms legislation in Canada lies more with the differences in political elites and institutions than with differences in public opinion. The differences in public attitudes in the two countries are insufficient to explain the stark contrast in firearms legislation.

Armed Self Defense: the Canadian Case

There is a vigorous debate over the frequency with which private citizens resort to the use of firearms for self-defense. No information has been previously available about how often firearms are used defensively outside of the United States. This article estimates the frequency with which firearms are used for self-protection by analyzing three telephone surveys of the general public in Canada and a fourth survey of the general public in the United States. Canadians report using firearms to protect themselves between 60,000 and 80,000 times per year from dangerous people or animals. More importantly, between 19,000 and 37,500 of these incidents involve defense against human threats. The results of the American survey confirm estimates about the frequency of firearms used for self-protection in the United States (Kleck, 1988, 1991). In comparison with the number of households with firearms, the frequency with which Canadians use firearms to defend themselves against human threats is somewhat less than that of Americans. Policymakers in both the United States and in Canada should be aware the private ownership of firearms has benefits as well as costs for society. Firearm bans may cost more lives than they save.

“Sorry, wrong number”: Why media polls on gun control are often unreliable

Abstract How scientific are the polls reported in the media on the gun‐control issue? Without arguing for or against gun controls, this article examines the interviewing and sampling methods used by media polls and finds that some polls claiming impressive majorities in favor of severe gun controls may not be accurate.

An evaluation of the 1977 Canadian firearm legislation: robbery involving a firearm

The effect of the 1977 Canadian firearm legislation on robberies involving firearms is evaluated between 1974 and 1992 using a pooled cross-section, time series model. The results show that the 1977 legislation did not reduce robbery involving firearms, nor did it have a significant effect on the total robbery or armed robbery rates. The legislation may even have acted perversely in that it may have increased robberies with firearms. In general, these results are consistent with previous published findings but contrast with unpublished governmental studies. The implication that this legislation may have acted perversely is new and requires further investigation.

Collateral damage: the ‘War on Drugs’, and the Latin America and Caribbean region: policy recommendations for the Obama administration

The Obama administration has an historic opportunity to reform the US ‘War on Drugs’ (WOD) policies in the strategically important Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. This paper examines the impact of the WOD policies and concludes they have seriously exacerbated crime and corruption rates in LAC. The result is weakened governance structures and economic capacities in LAC. The WOD has emphasized supply curtailment in source and transit countries, rather than demand reduction in the US This offshoring of attacks on drug organizations has resulted in the acceleration of violence and corruption as drug traffickers develop new strategies to maintain their profits. The LAC region has the highest murder rate in the world, even higher than regions with armed conflict. We recommend that the US abandon drug prohibition. Decriminalization would allow governments to control the trans-shipment, production and distribution of these drugs. This would immediately allow resources devoted to law enforcement activities to be redirected to assist addicts and to provide financial support to strategically important neighboring LAC states. Controlling the marketplace would also provide the US and LAC with new sources of taxes. We also recommend that LAC governments act together to overcome their small sizes or weak institutional capacities by deepening cooperation as between MERCOSUR and CARICOM. This would enable joint initiatives such as policing of territorial water, thus reducing the need for US incursions into the region. Finally, any solution in the region must be supported by the creation of economic opportunities, both intra-regionally and through fairer access to the US markets, particularly for agricultural goods.

Public opinion as a dependent variable: A framework for analysis

Abstract This paper outlines an approach to examining how public opinion is taken into consideration by political and governmental leaders and reviews recent studies that have followed this approach to evaluate the extent to which public opinion is subject to manipulation by political elites in diverse circumstances. The central idea of this approach is to treat public opinion as a “dependent variable” and to examine the role of the mass media in linking elite initiatives and the public. Instead of starting with polls that presume public opinion is an independent force, we start with elites and presume that they try to manipulate public opinion through the mass media and by other means. First, we look at why the emphasis on the independent nature of public opinion has become so prominent in political science. We argue here that viewing public opinion as a dependent variable is a more promising perspective. Next, we review and evaluate a number of studies that attempt to demonstrate the fruitfulness of our...

'Sorry, Wrong Number': Why Media Polls on Gun Control are So Often Unreliable

How scientific are the polls reported in the media on the gun control issue? Without arguing for or against gun controls, this article examines the interviewing and sampling methods used by media polls and finds that some polls claiming impressive majorities in favor of severe gun controls may not be accurate.

The right to vote no: revising the voting system and resuscitating the F-Y voter

This paper explores the possibility of revising the voting system in order to provide the citizen with the alternative of voting for none of the candidates on the ballot as opposed to selecting a specific candidate or not voting at all. We describe in general terms the nature and implications of such a proposal and leave the formal development of the model for a subsequent paper. In addition, preliminary evidence is presented as to the potential effect of this alternative on the electoral system.