Gary Moncrief

The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures: A New Survey of the 50 States

Term limits on legislators were adopted in 21 states during the early 1990s. Beginning in 1996, the limits legally barred incumbents from reelection in 11 states, and they will do so in four more by 2010. In 2002, we conducted the only survey of legislators in all 50 states aimed at assessing the impact of term limits on state legislative representation. We found that term limits have virtually no effect on the types of people elected to office�whether measured by a range of demographic characteristics or by ideological predisposition�but they do have measurable impact on certain behaviors and priorities reported by legislators in the survey, and on the balance of power among various institutional actors in the arena of state politics. We characterize the biggest impact on behavior and priorities as a �Burkean shift,� whereby term-limited legislators become less beholden to the constituents in their geographical districts and more attentive to other concerns. The reform also increases the power of the executive branch (governors and the bureaucracy) over legislative outcomes and weakens the influence of majority party leaders and committee chairs, albeit for different reasons.

Time, Term Limits, and Turnover: Trends in Membership Stability in U.S. State Legislatures

Increases in legislative professionalization along with the implementation of term limits in about one-third of the American states raise significant questions about the path of state house and senate turnover. We first update turnover figures for all states, by chamber, from the mid-1980s through 2002. We then compare turnover rates in states with and without term limits. We find that turnover rates, overall, continued to decline through the 1980s but that the long downward trend abated in the 1990s as a result of term limits. The effects of term limits vary depending on the length of the term limit and the opportunity structure in the state. There is also a strong relationship between the presence of term limits and interchamber movement. In addition to term limits, professionalization levels, redistricting, the presence of multi-member districts, and partisan swings explain differences in turnover rates between states.

For Whom the Bell Tolls: Term Limits and State Legislatures

One of the trends of the 1990s is the movement to limit terms of office for public officials. The movement varies from state-to-state, but no level of government or office seems to be immune. Various proposals are aimed at city councils, statewide executive officials, or Congress. But at this point the office which appears to be most often targeted is that of the state legislator. At least forty-one states considered state legislative term limitations in 1991.1

Electoral Structure and State Legislative Representation: A Research Note

Previous research suggests a linkage between the electoral structure of legislative districts and characteristics of those elected. More specifically, studies find that blacks and other geographically concentrated minorities are more successful in single-member districts (SMDs) while women are elected more frequently from multimember districts (MMDs). However, these findings do not control for the urban and rural character of the district. Using data from 10 states, which use some combination of single-member and nonseat designated multimember districts, we compare characteristics of legislators elected from the different district types. We find that nonnative legislators are more likely to represent urban SMDs; educational attainment is a function of the urban/rural nature of the district and is not related to electoral type; and that legislators from SMDs have longer legislative service than those from MMDs. More importantly though, with respect to race and gender, we find compelling evidence that blacks are advantaged by SMDs, especially urban SMDs, and that women are elected more frequently from MMDs, especially urban MMDs.

Recruitment and Retention in U.S. Legislatures

Questions of recruitment and retention of legislators are central to our understanding of the nature of representative democracy. This essay traces the dominant perspectives and issues involved in the study of legislative candidates and legislative careers in the United States. A central theme of this essay is that congressional and state legislative scholars have tended to ignore each others work. This is largely due to a difference in the unit of analysis, wherein congressional scholars concentrate on the individual while state legislative scholars concentrate on the institution. But two recent events in state legislatures have the potential to provide linkages between congressional and legislative research. The first is the increase in careerism among state legislators. The second is the effect of term limits.

Women's Work? The Distribution and Prestige of Portfolios in the Canadian Provinces

Historically not only have women cabinet ministers in Western democracies been few in number, but they have generally been limited to “womens ministries” such as education, health, social services, and culture. This article systematically investigates the responsibilities and prestige of portfolios that women cabinet ministers in the ten Canadian provinces have held over a 21-year period, 1976–1997, an era in which their share of cabinet positions rose from less than 4% to almost 25%. Although still concentrated in traditional womens ministries, they have diversified the portfolios they hold. Using a tri-fold classification of portfolios into (1) important, (2) middle range, and (3) junior positions, we find that women increasingly have achieved more prestigious portfolios, perhaps a reflection of the reduced number of cabinet positions in the 1990s and more concerted attempts to promote women. But the law of increasing disproportion still exists, at least in overall terms of the relative prestige of cabinet positions.

On the Outside Looking In: Lobbyists' Perspectives on the Effects of State Legislative Term Limits

Term limit laws for state legislators now exist in 19 states. While these laws were passed as early as 1990, they have only recently actually forced legislators from office. Prior to the 2000 elections, only two states (California and Maine) had experienced virtually complete legislative turnover in at least one chamber as a result of term limits. Nine other states have had at least one cohort of legislators forced out of office. Now that a significant portion of these legislative bodies has been replaced by term limits, we can begin to examine the consequences of this reform. We report findings from a survey of lobbyists in five term-limits states. We find strong consensus among these lobbyists that term limits have caused the state political influence structure to shift away from the legislature and toward the governor, administrative agencies, and interest groups. With regard to the impact on internal operations and procedures of the legislature, we discover considerable variation across states, variation that, in part, is related to legislative professionalism.

The Recruitment of Women Cabinet Ministers in the Canadian Provinces

Although there have been several studies of women in legislatures in Canada, a cabinet position is a much stronger position from which to wield power in an executive-centered and party-disciplined parliamentary system. In the past decade, the increase of womens share of legislative seats, for majority parties as well as others, has led to more women being appointed to cabinet portfolios. This article utilizes data from the ten Canadian provinces over an 18-year period, from 1976 to 1994, to assess patterns of such appointments by province, party, percentage of women in the governing party, and percentage of women in the legislature. The proportion of women in the governing party far outweighs other variables in its impact on the percentage of women in the cabinet, in contrast to a previous study of West European cabinets which found that more women in the legislature was of greater importance. Although a high level of multicollinearity indicates caution in attempting to distinguish between the impact of these two variables, the differences in these studies may be due to Canadian provinces having single-party majority governments while West European cabinets are often coalitions.

Terminating the Provincial Career: Retirement and Electoral Defeat in Canadian Provincial Legislatures, 1960–1997

This article analyzes data on incumbent turnover in 103 provincial elections in Canada from 1960 to 1997. The author examines total turnover and the proportions attributable to retirement and electoral defeat. He notes that the overall rate of turnover in the provincial legislative assemblies is similar to that of the Canadian House of Commons. Further, voluntary retirement and electoral defeat comprise equal proportions of the total turnover. There are, however, important differences in the turnover rate and in its makeup, both by province and by time period. The author tests several models in an attempt to determine the correlates of turnover in Canadian provincial legislatures.

Gender, race, and the state legislature: A research note on the double disadvantage hypothesis

Abstract The “double disadvantage” hypothesis stipulates that black females are politically disadvantaged twice (once by gender, once by race). This hypothesis suggests that because of both their race and gender, black women will find it especially difficult to compete successfully in electoral politics in the United States. This leads one to expect that proportionately fewer black women would hold elective office than is true for other groups (e.g. white women, black men, white men). It would also suggest that black women could overcome these disadvantages only if they exceed their gender and racial counterparts in certain preparatory background characteristics such as education and occupational prestige. We examine these issues, using data on state legislators backgrounds. We find that only one of the two necessary conditions to corroborate the “double disadvantage” hypothesis is met. Generally, our findings support the conclusions of previous research.