Georgia D. Barnett

An Examination of the Predictive Validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 in England and Wales

This study examined the predictive validity of an actuarial risk-assessment tool with convicted sexual offenders in England and Wales. A modified version of the RM2000/s scale and the RM2000 v and c scales (Thornton et al., 2003) were examined for accuracy in predicting proven sexual violent, nonsexual violent, and combined sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending in a sample of sexual offenders who had either started a community sentence or been released from prison into the community by March 2007. Rates of proven reoffending were examined at 2 years for the majority of the sample (n = 4,946), and 4 years ( n = 578) for those for whom these data were available. The predictive validity of the RM2000 scales was also explored for different subgroups of sexual offenders to assess the robustness of the tool. Both the modified RM2000/s and the complete v and c scales effectively classified offenders into distinct risk categories that differed significantly in rates of proven sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending. Survival analyses on the RM2000/s and v scales (N = 9,284) indicated that the higher risk groups offended more quickly and at a higher rate than lower risk groups. The relative predictive validity of the RM2000/s, v, and c, as calculated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analyses, were moderate (.68) for RM2000/s and large for both the RM2000/c (.73) and RM2000/v (.80), at the 2-year follow-up. RM2000/s was moderately accurate in predicting relative risk of proven sexual reoffending for a variety of subgroups of sexual offenders.

Victim Empathy Intervention With Sexual Offenders Rehabilitation, Punishment, or Correctional Quackery?

A sexual offender is thought to have victim empathy when he has a cognitive and emotional understanding of the experience of the victim of his sexual offense. Most sex offender treatment programs devote significant time to developing victim empathy. The authors examine three meta-analytic studies and some individual studies that suggest victim empathy work is unnecessary, or even harmful. Service user studies, however, report positive reactions to victim empathy work. The authors conclude that the enthusiasm for victim empathy work as a rehabilitative endeavor is disproportionate given the weak evidence base and the lack of a coherent theoretical model of change. However, because the research is inconclusive, it is not possible to conclude that victim empathy work is “correctional quackery.” We suggest a research program to clarify whether or not victim empathy intervention for sexual offenders has value.

Comparing the Validity of the RM2000 Scales and OGRS3 for Predicting Recidivism by Internet Sexual Offenders

This study examined the predictive validity of four actuarial risk assessment tools with sexual offenders convicted of Internet offenses in England and Wales. Risk Matrix 2000 scales (RM2000/s, RM2000/v, and RM2000/c) and Offender Group Reconviction Scale 3 were examined to establish their accuracy in predicting sexual, violent, sexual and violent, and general reoffending in a sample of 1,344 Internet offenders who had either started a community sentence or been released from prison into the community by March 2007. A modified version of RM2000/s was used. Rates of proven reoffending were examined at 1 year for the majority of the sample (n = 1,326), and 2 years (n = 994) for those for whom these data were available. Proven reoffending was defined as any caution or conviction for a new offense. Reoffending rates were very low among this sample, and three quarters of the sexual reoffending was Internet related. The results indicate that all four tools had moderate to very good predictive accuracy as measured using receiver operating characteristics statistics when used to predict the outcome they were designed to (areas under the curve between .67 and .87). The results were also examined for generalist sexual offenders (those who had both Internet-related and other sexual offenses in their offense history) and Internet specialists (those whose sexual offenses were only Internet related) separately. The very low reoffending rate of the Internet specialists made these comparisons difficult. Further research is required with larger sample sizes and longer follow-up periods before firm conclusions can be made regarding the accuracy of these tools with Internet offenders.

Cognition, Empathy, and Sexual Offending

Most empathy research in the forensic context has assumed that empathy has two components. In this two-component model, the cognitive component involves perspective taking, and the affective component involves experiencing appropriate emotion. In this review, we identify how this assumption has both dominated and limited empathy research with offenders, nearly all of which has been conducted with sexual offenders. We propose instead that five components are involved in the experience of empathy: perspective taking, the ability to experience emotion, a belief that others are worthy of compassion and respect, situational factors, and an ability to manage personal distress. We suggest that the non-situational factors that blocked empathy for the victim at the time of a sexual offense are probably other dispositions known to be related to sexual offending, such as sexual preoccupation, generalized hostility to others, implicit theories about children and sex, and/or poor coping with negative emotions. We conclude with directions for practice and research, and urge greater caution in correctional policies on victim empathy programs.

Does change in psychometric test scores tell us anything about risk of reconviction in sexual offenders

Abstract This study examined the relationship between psychometric test change over treatment and sexual or violent reconviction. A sample of 3402 convicted sexual offenders attending probation sexual offender treatment in the community completed psychometric tests pre- and post-treatment. Individuals’ treatment change status was determined by whether their pre- to post-treatment scores had reliably deteriorated, were unchanged, reliably improved (but not to within a functional range), reliably improved to, or remained within, a functional range. Treatment outcome status was not associated with reconviction for a sexual or violent reoffence for any of the measures examined. The sample was then grouped into those who had and had not changed to within a functional range of scoring on amalgamated measures of offence-supportive attitudes, socio-affective functioning and self-management. Those who were classed as not requiring further change on the socio-affective functioning domain had a lower rate of reconviction than those who, according to the psychometric tests, still needed to change post-treatment. However, change on this domain did not add predictive power to static risk assessment. Overall treatment change was not associated with reduced sexual or violent recidivism. Recommendations for further research in this area, and the practical implications of these findings, are discussed.

How Useful Are Psychometric Scores in Predicting Recidivism for Treated Sex Offenders

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service–run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.

The Good Lives Model or Relapse Prevention What Works Better in Facilitating Change

This study compared changes in psychometric scores over treatment for a sample of convicted male sexual offenders who had attended a traditional relapse prevention (RP) program in the community, to those who had attended a revised version of the program based on the good lives (GL) model of offender rehabilitation. The sample consisted of a total of 601 offenders either serving sentences in the community or on probation in the community following release from custody. The sample attended one of two programs operating in the community, both of which delivered an RP and GL version of the program. The groups were compared on their level of psychometric change over treatment on individual measures, on measures grouped by dynamic risk domain, and on overall psychometric change, using a variety of analyses, including examination of clinically significant change. There were no differences in amount of change over treatment or, for those deemed as requiring change, clinically significant change, by program approach, for the majority of the measures examined. However, chi-square analyses indicated that there was an association between attending the GL version of the programs and sustaining a functional score across a number of measures of pro-offending attitudes and across measures of socioaffective functioning, posttreatment. In addition, achieving an overall “treated profile” on the psychometrics posttreatment was associated with attendance on the GL versions of the community programs, although the GL starters were less dysfunctional than the RP starters. Attrition rates were low for both the RP and GL programs, and there was no difference in rates between the two.

Specialization In and Within Sexual Offending in England and Wales

Existing evidence suggests that offenders tend not to specialize in sexual offending in general but that there is some specialization in particular types of sexual offending. This study examined the sexual histories and reoffending of a large, national data set of offenders convicted of a sexual offense and managed in England and Wales by the National Offender Management Service (N = 14,804). The study found that specialization in sexual offending compared to nonsexual offending was most evident for offenders with convictions for accessing indecent images. We also found considerable evidence of specialization within sexual offending, most notably for noncontact offenders, especially again indecent images offenders. Crossover between sexual offense types was very rare for those with contact adult offenses and for noncontact offenders although those with child contact offenses sometimes crossed over to indecent images reoffending. If specialization within sexual offending exists, the use of single risk assessment instruments to predict all types of sexual recidivism may be less effective than previously assumed. A comparison of different prediction models indicated that some items presently used in one-size-fits-all risk tools to predict any sexual reoffending only effectively predict certain subtypes of sexual offending. Statistically there appear to be some potential benefits to creating specialist risk predictors for different subtypes of offending, but further work is needed to justify the implementation demands that would be caused by abandoning one-size-fits-all tools.

Gender-responsive programming: a qualitative exploration of women's experiences of a gender-neutral cognitive skills programme

This study examined the experiences of seven women attending the pilot of a new cognitive skills programme in custody. The women were interviewed individually, and four took part in a focus group, one week after finishing a gender-neutral programme. Responses were subject to content analysis. Results indicated that the women felt the programme was relevant to their needs, that they experienced change as a result of the programme, and felt the collaborative facilitation style was responsive to their needs. However, all of the women described disengaging from the programme at points, and the majority felt that they would have been able to engage in the material more meaningfully had the programme been longer. Practical ways of improving the responsivity of programmes for women offenders are discussed.