Helen C. Wakeling

An Examination of the Predictive Validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 in England and Wales

This study examined the predictive validity of an actuarial risk-assessment tool with convicted sexual offenders in England and Wales. A modified version of the RM2000/s scale and the RM2000 v and c scales (Thornton et al., 2003) were examined for accuracy in predicting proven sexual violent, nonsexual violent, and combined sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending in a sample of sexual offenders who had either started a community sentence or been released from prison into the community by March 2007. Rates of proven reoffending were examined at 2 years for the majority of the sample (n = 4,946), and 4 years ( n = 578) for those for whom these data were available. The predictive validity of the RM2000 scales was also explored for different subgroups of sexual offenders to assess the robustness of the tool. Both the modified RM2000/s and the complete v and c scales effectively classified offenders into distinct risk categories that differed significantly in rates of proven sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending. Survival analyses on the RM2000/s and v scales (N = 9,284) indicated that the higher risk groups offended more quickly and at a higher rate than lower risk groups. The relative predictive validity of the RM2000/s, v, and c, as calculated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analyses, were moderate (.68) for RM2000/s and large for both the RM2000/c (.73) and RM2000/v (.80), at the 2-year follow-up. RM2000/s was moderately accurate in predicting relative risk of proven sexual reoffending for a variety of subgroups of sexual offenders.

Comparing the Validity of the RM2000 Scales and OGRS3 for Predicting Recidivism by Internet Sexual Offenders

This study examined the predictive validity of four actuarial risk assessment tools with sexual offenders convicted of Internet offenses in England and Wales. Risk Matrix 2000 scales (RM2000/s, RM2000/v, and RM2000/c) and Offender Group Reconviction Scale 3 were examined to establish their accuracy in predicting sexual, violent, sexual and violent, and general reoffending in a sample of 1,344 Internet offenders who had either started a community sentence or been released from prison into the community by March 2007. A modified version of RM2000/s was used. Rates of proven reoffending were examined at 1 year for the majority of the sample (n = 1,326), and 2 years (n = 994) for those for whom these data were available. Proven reoffending was defined as any caution or conviction for a new offense. Reoffending rates were very low among this sample, and three quarters of the sexual reoffending was Internet related. The results indicate that all four tools had moderate to very good predictive accuracy as measured using receiver operating characteristics statistics when used to predict the outcome they were designed to (areas under the curve between .67 and .87). The results were also examined for generalist sexual offenders (those who had both Internet-related and other sexual offenses in their offense history) and Internet specialists (those whose sexual offenses were only Internet related) separately. The very low reoffending rate of the Internet specialists made these comparisons difficult. Further research is required with larger sample sizes and longer follow-up periods before firm conclusions can be made regarding the accuracy of these tools with Internet offenders.

Investigating treatment change and its relationship to recidivism in a sample of 3773 sex offenders in the UK

Abstract This study examines the relationship between psychometric changes in treatment and recidivism in a sample of 3773 sex offenders. All had completed treatment in a prison, between 1996 and 2006. Clinically significant changes were calculated for the psychometrics, and for the overarching psychological problems as represented by the four domains in the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (Thornton, Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 139–154, 2002): (1) sexual interests; (2) pro-offending attitudes; (3) socio-affective problems; and (4) self-regulation problems. Analyses indicate that those whose scores were in the ‘normal range’ before and after treatment were reconvicted at a significantly lower rate than those whose scores were not in the ‘normal range’ after treatment on selected psychometric scales. Additionally, participants who were deemed ‘changed’ overall on three of the four risk domains were reconvicted at a lower rate than those who were deemed not to have changed on these domains. An overall treatment change status was also computed, but this did not add significantly to the predictive validity of a modified version of an actuarial risk assessment tool (RM2000, Thornton et al., Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 223–235, 2003) in a Cox regression. The results of the study indicate the potential role and limitations of clinical methodologies in ascertaining whether treatment has worked.

Assessing socially desirable responding and its impact on self-report measures among sexual offenders

Abstract It is often assumed that offenders employ socially desirable responding when completing self-report questionnaires, thereby invalidating such measures. The aim of this study is to examine the extent that sexual offenders employ socially desirable responding and the impact that socially desirable responding, as measured by the Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding-6 (BIDR: 6, Paulhus, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 598–609, 1984), has on self-report measures. The sample comprised 1730 adult males, all convicted and serving a sentence for a sexual offence. The entire sample had completed a set of self-report measures used to identify treatment needs, and examine progress in treatment. The results indicate that the extent of socially desirable responding is smaller than assumed, and its impact on a number of self-report measures is lower than expected. Furthermore, lower levels of risk of sexual re-offending were significantly associated with higher scores on the impression management subscale. We suggest that impression management should be viewed as more of a trait-like tendency rather than a validity check, and the use of this scale in determining whether or not to interpret other self-report instruments should be questioned. The present study also indicates that self-report questionnaires used with forensic populations may be accurate and valid. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

Sexual offenders’ treatment experience: a qualitative and quantitative investigation

Abstract HM Prison Service Sex Offender Treatment Programme (SOTP) has been running since 1992. Despite the collection of standardised psychometric data, no qualitative data to ascertain sexual offenders’ treatment experiences within HM Prison Service have been gathered to date. This study evaluates participants’ experiences of SOTP using qualitative and quantitative methods. A semi-structured interview was administered to 46 adult male sexual offenders. The interviews were transcribed and subject to grounded theory analysis. Treatment Summary Documents and psychometric measures were also interrogated to examine the relationship between subjective treatment experiences and other progress assessment. The results indicate that participants’ experiences of the Core Programme were multidimensional; they experienced both positive and negative affects during treatment, and learning points were drawn from every treatment ‘block’. Findings support the recommendation of using qualitative exploration, and triangulating methods of programme efficacy. The results are discussed in terms of implications for the improvement of future programmes for sexual offenders.

Does change in psychometric test scores tell us anything about risk of reconviction in sexual offenders

Abstract This study examined the relationship between psychometric test change over treatment and sexual or violent reconviction. A sample of 3402 convicted sexual offenders attending probation sexual offender treatment in the community completed psychometric tests pre- and post-treatment. Individuals’ treatment change status was determined by whether their pre- to post-treatment scores had reliably deteriorated, were unchanged, reliably improved (but not to within a functional range), reliably improved to, or remained within, a functional range. Treatment outcome status was not associated with reconviction for a sexual or violent reoffence for any of the measures examined. The sample was then grouped into those who had and had not changed to within a functional range of scoring on amalgamated measures of offence-supportive attitudes, socio-affective functioning and self-management. Those who were classed as not requiring further change on the socio-affective functioning domain had a lower rate of reconviction than those who, according to the psychometric tests, still needed to change post-treatment. However, change on this domain did not add predictive power to static risk assessment. Overall treatment change was not associated with reduced sexual or violent recidivism. Recommendations for further research in this area, and the practical implications of these findings, are discussed.

How Useful Are Psychometric Scores in Predicting Recidivism for Treated Sex Offenders

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service–run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.

Why do sexual offenders refuse treatment

Abstract Theories of offender motivation for treatment have proposed that external factors may be as important as internal factors in creating a state of readiness for treatment. This paper reports an exploratory study of the barriers to treatment for incarcerated sexual offenders. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of interview and questionnaire data from treatment refusers and accepters suggested that refusers were less aware of the effectiveness of treatment, reported seeing negative side effects of treatment in others and felt they had a higher social status in prison which could be damaged by attending treatment. While this study does not demonstrate a causal link between these experiences and the decision to refuse treatment, it seems reasonable to suggest that take-up of treatment could be increased by more sustained efforts to build relationships with treatment refusers and by the provision of accessible information about treatment and its potential benefits.

Entitled to sex: Attitudes of sexual offenders

Abstract Previous research has indicated that sexual entitlement may be significant within the offending behaviour of sexual offenders, particularly for rapists, sexual murderers and incest offenders. The purpose of this study was to produce a descriptive analysis of sexual entitlement thinking in the build-up to sexual offending in rapists, sexual murderers, intrafamilial and extrafamilial child offenders. Both deductive and inductive content analyses were used to identify distinct categories within the written sexual entitlement thoughts of incarcerated offenders at the time of offending, using documentation produced during participation in a cognitive–behavioural treatment programme. Sexual entitlement thoughts were present for each type of offender examined and the analyses resulted in six categories of entitlement thoughts, two of which appear to be new categories not identified in previous research. Similarities and differences between offender types in their entitlement beliefs are also discussed. The present findings expand our understanding of sexual entitlement, and we hope they will aid professionals in both the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders.

Measuring grievance thinking in sexual offenders: The revised Dissipation–Rumination Scale

Abstract Rumination is an important part of “grievance thinking”, which has been linked to recidivism in sexual offenders. Grievance thinking is a dynamic risk factor that can be targeted in treatment, and is characterized by a perception of being wronged accompanied by angry, hostile rumination about revenge, and has similarities to the “dangerous world” implicit theory . A revised version of the Dissipation–Rumination Scale is used currently to measure grievance thinking in sexual offenders incarcerated in England and Wales. The study aimed to establish whether this revised measure is valid to use with this population. The scale demonstrated adequate reliability and good convergent validity. However, analyses revealed problems with both construct and predictive validity. Further, it is suggested that the scale may not be sufficient to measure the whole of the “grievance thinking” concept. The results do not provide overwhelming support for the use of this tool with sexual offenders; further research is required before firm conclusions can be drawn regarding the scales utility. Directions for future research are discussed.