Georgy Idrisov

Budget Policy and Economic Growth

This article examines the relationship between government budgetary policy and the pursuit of accelerated economic growth. The authors review the academic debate over long-term economic growth and associated short-term fluctuations and conclude that Russian budgetary intended to smooth fluctuations in economic activity are of limited effect and that there are no opportunities for increasing public expenditure in the medium and long-term. For these reasons, the structure of expenditures must be changed and budgetary institutions must be transformed with a view to creating the preconditions for economic growth in the long-term.

The perspectives of long-term growth in Russia

The paper analyses the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle, and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labour and capital markets reform as well as productivity growth.

The Gravity Model Of Russia’S International Trade: The Case Of A Large Country With A Long Border

The paper contains the results of theoretical development and empirical verification of spatial gravity model of Russian trade. The authors conclude that the spatial variables and especially the location of the state border checkpoints have a significant effect on the volume and routes of Russian imports.

Modernization or Conservation: The Role of Export Duty on Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

This paper deals with the analysis of the consequences of the abolition of export duties on crude oil and petroleum products as a necessary measure to create incentives to improve energy efficiency of the Russian economy and the elimination of underdevelopment caused by the unprecedented long-term subsidies to inefficient Russian oil refining. The authors consider three possible scenarios for the abolition of export duties on crude oil and domestic market and the conservation of tax revenues at a constant level.

Импортозамещение Товаров Инвестиционного Назначения в России (Import Substitution of Investment Goods in Russia)

Russian Abstract: Целью работы является проверка гипотез о влиянии реального эффективного обменного курса рубля, уровня предпринимательской уверенности, цен на импортные и отечественные аналоги, доходов (валовой добавленной стоимости/выручки) российской промышленности, секторальных санкций ЕС и США на показатели инвестиционной динамики РФ на различных временных интервалах. Подробно исследуются факторы спроса российских предприятий на импорт инвестиционных товаров. English Abstract: The main purpose of the research is to test hypotheses about the impact of the real effective exchange rate, the level of business confidence, the prices of imported and domestic substitute investment goods, income (gross value added/revenue) of Russian industry, the EU and US sectoral sanctions on indicators of investment dynamics in Russia at different time intervals. Factors of demand of Russian companies on the import of capital goods were researched in detail.

Analysis of Joint Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Import Duty Rates in the Russian Economy

The paper presents the results of research and assessment of the combined exchange rate and import duty pass-through effect in the Russian economy and its key features. We used data on the basic macroeconomic indicators, published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Federal State Statistics Service, Federal Customs Service, as well as scientific, analytical and statistical publication of Russian and foreign sources, including international organizations.

Analysis of the Efficiency of Natural Monopolies in Russia

Russian Abstract: Целями работы являлись оценка деятельности субъектов естественных монополий (далее - ЕМ) в России, выделение основных источников неэффективности работы субъектов ЕМ, построение количественной модели влияния тарифов естественных монополий на макроэкономические параметры выпуск, цены на общероссийском уровне и уровне отдельных отраслей и проверка гипотезы об отрицательном влиянии роста цен и тарифов ЕМ на выпуск и о положительном влиянии на уровень цен.Для этого были решены следующие основные задачи: выделены источники неэффективности естественных монополий, проанализированы эмпирические подходы к количественному определению их влияния на экономику; систематизированы теоретические и эмпирические подходы к регулированию сфер естественных монополий, проанализированы последствия проведения дерегулирования с точки зрения изменения общественного благосостояния; проведен анализ теоретических и эмпирических работ по количественному влиянию регулирования на цены естественных монополий, сформулирована и построена собственная модель влияния динамики цен и тарифов ЕМ на макроэкономические параметры и показатели работы отдельных отраслей;проанализированы показатели работы сфер естественных монополий и способы регулирования этих секторов в России; проведен количественный анализ влияния монополий на конкурентоспособность отраслей экономики; сформулированы основные выводы рекомендации по проведению политики в отношении сфер ЕМ в России.Для решения этих задач использовались данные по основным макроэкономическим показателям, публикуемых Центральным банком Российской Федерации и Федеральной службой государственной статистики, Федеральной таможенной службой, а также научные, аналитические и статистические публикации российских и зарубежных источников, в том числе международных организаций.English Abstract: Main purposes of this paper were evaluation of natural monopolies (NMs) activity in Russian Federation, definition of its basic inefficiency sources, construction of quantitative model of natural monopolies’ tariffs influence on such macroeconomic parameters like output, aggregate price level and on prices of different industries and testing the hypothesis on negative influence of NMs’ tariffs on output and its positive influence on different price levels.To achieve this purposes the following tasks were fulfilled specified natural monopolies inefficiency sources, analyzed empirical approaches to quantify their impact on the economy; systematized theoretical and empirical approaches on regulation of natural monopolies sectors, analyzed consequences of deregulation policy on social welfare changes; analyzed theoretical and empirical studies on quantitative estimation of influence of NMs’ prices regulation on economics, defined and constructed own model of influence of NMs’ prices regulation on macroeconomic parameters (output, aggregate price level) and parameters of different sectors; realized quantitative analysis of influence of NMs’ on competitive ability of different sectors of economy; main conclusions and recommendations on policy on natural monopolies sectors were provided.As initial data for estimation authors used The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Russian Federal State Statistics Service and Federal Customs Service data, as well as scientific, analytical and statistical papers in Russian and foreign sources, including international organizations reports.

Research of the Effect of Growth of Openness of the Russian Economy on Income Inequality in Russia

Russian Abstract: В настоящей работе мы исследуем влияние положительного шока условий торговли (подорожание нефти относительно других торгуемых товаров) на неравенство в заработных платах на региональном уровне. Результаты свидетельствуют в пользу того, что в среднесрочной перспективе улучшение условий торговли России увеличивает межрегиональное неравенство заработных плат посредством увеличения заработных плат во всех квантилях распределения заработных плат (то есть во всех наблюдаемых доходных группах) в субъектах федерации более интегрированных в мировую экономику. Также нами показано, что, хотя улучшение условий торговли увеличивает межрегиональное неравенство заработных плат индивидов, наблюдается снижение премий за навык, что соответствует предсказаниям модели Хекшера-Олина и теореме Столпера-Самуэльсона.English Abstract: In this paper, we examine the impact of the positive terms of trade shock (rise in price of oil relative to other traded goods) on inequalities in wages at the regional level.The results show the benefit of that in the medium-term improvement in the conditions of Russias trade increased inter-regional inequality in wages by increasing wages in all quintiles of the wage distribution (ie in all of the observed income groups) are more integrated into the world economy in the Federation. We have also shown that, although the terms of trade increased inter-regional inequality individuals wage, a decrease in premiums for the skill that matches the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson theorem.

Russian industry in H1 2016: zero dynamics

The trend that first became visible in early 2016 – decline giving way to zero rates of growth – towards the end of H1 had spread across a majority of segments of the economy’s real sector. The lack of a noticeable domestic demand and dependence upon foreign equipment supplies coupled with the persistently low relative income generated by exports of raw materials make it impossible to expect any significant domestic production growth in the nearest future.

TAX MANEUVER: ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCELERATION TO THE DETRIMENT OF BUDGET CONSOLIDATION

The taxation reform in the oil and oil-refining industries in 2014 – the ‘tax maneuver’ – was designed to boost the performance of domestic oil refineries. In late 2015, the planned reduction of export duty was suspended in order to keep unchanged the volume of tax-generated revenues under the new terms of trade. However, our calculations demonstrate that full implementation of the tax maneuver will not only result in the accomplishment of that task, but prevent growth of wholesale and retail prices of petroleum products, as well as conduce to increasing the value added created by Russia’s oilrefining sector.