Gerhard Reitschuler

A non‐linear defence‐growth nexus? evidence from the US economy

The defense‐growth nexus is investigated empirically using time series data for the US and allowing the effect of defense spending on growth to be non‐linear. Using recently developed econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a level‐dependent effect of military expenditure on GDP growth is found: the positive externality effect of defense spending prevails for relatively lower levels of defense spending (with respect to the history of defense spending in the US) and reverts its influence for higher levels.

Guns Or Butter? Revisited: Robustness and Nonlinearity Issues in the Defense-Growth Nexus

The relationship between military expenditure and growth is studied taking into account potential nonlinearities and robustness issues in the specification of the econometric models used. Using cross-country growth regressions and the widely used Feder-Ram model, the partial correlation between defense and economic growth appears robust and significantly negative only for countries with a relatively low military expenditure ratio. While the externality effect appears positive in this subgroup of countries, the overall effect turns negative due to the size effect of the military sector.

Fiscal Policy, Trigger Points and Interest Rates: Additional Evidence From the U.S.

We empirically investigate whether the relationship between interest rates and public deficits/debt may be nonlinear for the U.S. Using threshold estimation, we find evidence of level-dependent effects on interest rates, implying a significant effect of projected deficits and debt in the U.S. only if the deficit surpasses approximately 5% of GDP.

The Fiscal Smile: The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers

We study the smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by government expenditures or revenues) on business cycle volatility for a panel of EU countries in the period 1970-99, The results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high levels. We present evidence that for government expenditure ratios exceeding an estimated value of about 38 percent, a further expansion in the size of the government could actually lead to an increase in cyclical volatility. This may call for a reconsideration of the use of fiscal stabilizers for business cycle smoothing.

On the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers

The smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by government expenditures) on business cycle volatility is studied for a panel of European Union (EU) countries in the period 1970–1999. Special emphasis is put on the investigation of possible nonlinearities in the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth volatility and fiscal stabilizers. The results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high levels. The results hold when using government revenues as a proxy for fiscal stabilizers.

Is the Ricardian Equivalence Proposition an 'Aerie Fairy' Theory for Europe?

Using a theoretical model based on dynamic optimizing agents, we test empirically the Ricardian equivalence proposition (REP) for the EU-15 countries. The theoretical setting allows us to obtain estimates of the structural parameters of the model and to test directly the hypothesis implied by the REP. Using recently developed end-of-sample cointegration breakdown tests, we find evidence of a change in the fiscal behaviour of individuals during the last decade-after the introduction of a fiscal rule, namely the Maastricht criteria-for most countries in the sample. The results concerning the direction of change are mixed. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2007.

Fiscal Policy and Optimal Taxation: Evidence from a Tax Smoothing Exercise

Testing the tax smoothing hypothesis for the EU-15, we hypothesise that the introduction of the 3%-deficit rule of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 may have inhibited tax smoothing as European Union (EU)-member states are no longer capable of letting the deficit grow as much as implied by expected decreases in government expenditure. Our results show that for some countries this fiscal rule may have indeed changed the validity of the tax smoothing hypothesis, thus implying that EU accession has caused welfare losses.

Modeling the Defense-Growth Nexus in a Post-Conflict Country - A Piecewise Linear Approach

The defense-growth nexus is investigated empirically using longitudinal data for Guatemala and allowing the effect of defense spending on growth to be nonlinear. Using recently developed econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a level-dependent effect of military expenditure on GDP growth is found: a positive and significant externality effect of defense spending prevails for relatively low levels of defense spending and becomes negative, albeit insignificant, for higher levels.