Josef Ludger Loening

Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy : The Case of Ethiopia

Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. The main finding is that, in a longer perspective, over three to four years, the main factors that determine domestic food and non-food prices are the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth does affect food price inflation in the short run, although the money stock itself does not seem to drive inflation. The results suggest the need for a multi-pronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account cereal production, which is among the key determinants of inflation, assuming a decline in global commodity prices. Implementation of successful policies will be contingent on the availability of foreign exchange and the performance of agriculture.

Nonfarm microenterprise performance and the investment climate: evidence from rural Ethiopia

This paper uses uniquely matched household, enterprise and community survey data from four major regions in rural Ethiopia to characterize the performance, constraints and opportunities of nonfarm enterprises. The nonfarm enterprise sector is sizeable, particularly important for women, and plays an important role during the low season for agriculture, when alternative job opportunities are limited. Returns to nonfarm enterprise employment are low on average and especially so for female-headed enterprises. Women nevertheless have much higher participation rates than men, which attest to their marginalized position in the labor market. Most enterprises are very small and rely almost exclusively on household members to provide the required labor inputs. Few firms add to their capital stock or increase their labor inputs after startup. Local fluctuations in predicted crop performance affect the performance of nonfarm enterprises, because of the predominant role played by the agricultural sector. Enterprise performance is also affected by the localized nature of sales and limited market integration for nonfarm enterprises. The policy implications of these and other findings are discussed.

Effects of Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Education on Economic Growth

This paper investigates the impact of human capital on economic growth in Guatemala during 1951-2002 using an error -correction methodology. The results show a better-educated labor force having a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Consistent with micro studies for Guatemala, primary and secondary education are most important for productivity growth. These findings are robust while changing the conditioning set of the variables, controlling for data issues and endogeneity. Due to an environment of social and political conflict, however, total factor productivity has been slightly negative for the past decades, and there is evidence of a missing complementarity between the countrys skills and its technology base. A growth-accounting framework is presented, which takes into account quality changes of physical capital, and differentiates by level of education. It shows that the human capital variables explain more than 50 percent of output growth. Of these, secondary schooling was the predominant determinant of growth.

The Level and Growth Effects in the Empirics of Economic Growth : Some Results with Data from Guatemala

Mankiw et al. (1992) have extended the Solow (1956) model by augmenting the production function with human capital. Its empirical success is impressive and it showed a procedure to improve the explanatory power of the neoclassical growth model. This article suggests an empirical procedure to further extend the neoclassical growth model to distinguish between the growth and level effects of shift variables like the human capital. We use time-series data from Guatemala to show that while the growth effects of education are small, they are significant and dominate the level effects.

Mind the Gap? A Rural-Urban Comparison of Manufacturing Firms

This paper compares and contrasts the performance of rural and urban manufacturing firms in Ethiopia to assess the impact of market integration and the investment climate on firm performance. Rural firms are shown to operate in isolated markets, have poor access to infrastructure and a substantial degree of market power, whereas urban firms operate in better integrated and more competitive markets, where they have much better access to inputs. Fragmentation may also help explain why urban firms are much larger, much more capital intensive and why they produce much more output per worker. Capital intensity and labor productivity are strongly correlated with firm size. Manufacturing technology choice does not vary strongly across space and increasing returns to scale are modest at best, suggesting that rural-urban differences in output per worker are predominantly driven by differences in capital intensity and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The average TFP of firms in rural towns is much higher than that of rural firms in remote areas, but small firms in rural towns are not significantly less productive than small firms in other urban areas. A key finding of the paper is that market fragmentation and investment climate constraints impair the growth of the rural non-farm sector. Whereas urban firms exhibit a healthy dynamism, rural firms are stagnant and lack incentives to invest. Paradoxically, limited local demand due to market fragmentation is the most pressing constraint for rural firms, even though they face more severe supply-side constraints than urban firms. Promoting market towns in Ethiopia might be an effective means of capitalizing on the gains from market integration.

Modeling the Defense-Growth Nexus in a Post-Conflict Country - A Piecewise Linear Approach

The defense-growth nexus is investigated empirically using longitudinal data for Guatemala and allowing the effect of defense spending on growth to be nonlinear. Using recently developed econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a level-dependent effect of military expenditure on GDP growth is found: a positive and significant externality effect of defense spending prevails for relatively low levels of defense spending and becomes negative, albeit insignificant, for higher levels.