Gianluca Valensise

Paleoseismology Along the 1980 Surface Rupture of the Irpinia Fault' Implications for Earthquake Recurrence in the Southern Apennines, Italy

The Irpinia fault was the source of the Ms 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake and produced the first unequivocal historical surface faulting in Italy. Trenching of the 1980 fault scarp at Piano di Pecore, a flat intermontane basin about 5 km south of the 1980 instrumental epicenter, provides the first data on earthquake recurrence intervals, slip per event, and slip rate on a major normal fault in the Southern Apennines fault zone. The trenches exposed evidence of four pre-1980 paleoearthquakes that occurred during the past 8600 years. A best estimate average recurrence interval is 2150 years, although the time interval between individual events varies by as much as a factor of 2. Each paleo earthquake is similar to the 1980 surface rupture in amount of slip and style of deformation, which suggests that the 1980 event is characteristic for the Irpinia fault. Slip per event values average 61 cm. The net vertical displacement of 2.12–2.36 m since 8600 cal year B.P. observed in the trenches gives a vertical slip rate of 0.25–0.35 mm/yr, a dip slip rate of 0.29–0.40 mm/yr, and an extension rate of 0.14–0.20 mm/yr. Although fault behavior data are only available for the Irpinia fault they provide a starting point for evaluating earthquake recurrence and rates of deformation in southern Apennines. They suggest that (1) fault specific earthquake recurrence intervals based on the historical seismic record overestimates the occurrence of large magnitude (M7) earthquakes and (2) the Holocene rate of extension across the Apennines is ≤1 mm/yr. The 1980 earthquake and the paleoseismologic observations show that repeated and localized surface faulting occurs in southern Apennines and leaves subtle but distinct geomorphic evidence that can be detected with detailed and careful investigation.

The investigation of potential earthquake sources in peninsular Italy: A review

We summarise and discuss almost a century of progress inthe understanding of the main characteristics of large Italian earthquakes.Topics of discussion include (1) the distribution of the largest earthquakesin relation with Late Pleistocene and Holocene faulting, (2) the geologicaland tectonic setting of the 1908 Messina Straits, 1915 Fucino Plain and1980 Irpinia earthquakes, (3) some of the geodynamic motivations for thecharacteristics of Italian seismicity, and (4) the resulting implications for theassessment of seismic hazard. In a subsequent section of the paper we present a summaryof recent achievements in the understanding and characterization of Italianseismicity, with special emphasis on the assignment of large historicalearthquakes to specific sources identified through geological observationsand on the evaluation of average recurrence intervals for individualearthquake sources. The final section describes some of the efforts being madefor matching the newly acquired geological evidence with instrumental andhistorical observations of Italian seismicity and the hypotheses than can bederived for anticipating the locus of large earthquakes of the future.

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).

Earthquake‐generated tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenarios of potential threats to Southern Italy

Italian Civil Defense; Project “Development of new technologies for the protection of the Italian territory from natural hazards” funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research

Plio-Quaternary tectonic evolution of the Northern Apennines thrust fronts (Bologna-Ferrara section, Italy): seismotectonic implications

The outermost, NE-verging fronts of the Northern Apennines (Italy) are overlain by a thick syntectonic sedimentary wedge filling up the basin beneath the Po Plain. Due to fast sedimentation rates and comparatively low tectonic rates, the fronts are generally buried. Evidence for their activity includes scattered historical and instrumental earthquakes and drainage anomalies controlled by growing buried anticlines. The largest earthquakes, up to M w 5.8, are associated with active compression, with a GPS-documented shortening rate <1 mm/a. We used geological, structural and morphotectonic data to draw a N-S-striking section between Bologna and Ferrara, aimed at analyzing whether and how the deformation is partitioned among the frontal thrusts of the Northern Apennines and identifying the potential sources of damaging earthquakes. We pointed out active anticlines based on the correspondence among drainage anomalies, historical seismicity and buried ramps. We also analyzed the evolution of the Plio-Quaternary deformation by modeling in a sandbox the geometry, kinematics and growth patterns of the thrust fronts. Our results (i) confirm that some of the main Quaternary thrusts are still active and (ii) highlight the partitioning of deformation in the overlap zones. We note that the extent and location of some of the active thrusts are compatible with the location and size of the main historical earthquakes and discuss the hypothesis that they may correspond to their causative seismogenic faults.

Seismology and Tectonic Setting of the 2002 Molise, Italy, Earthquake

Two Mw 5.7 earthquakes struck a sparsely populated region of southern Italy, on October 31 and November 1, triggering a swarm-like sequence that lasted for several days. The earthquakes were caused by pure right-lateral slip between 10 and 24 km depth over a nearly vertical, previously undetected east-west fault. This mechanism is not typical for southern Italy, where normal faulting in the uppermost 12 km of the crust seems to dominate. However, east-west strike-slip faulting is kinematically consistent with the widely documented Apennines extension. The earthquake-causative fault appears to connect the Mattinata fault, a major active strike-slip feature cutting across the Gargano promontory, with east-west structures known beneath the axial part of the Apennines. The 2002 earthquakes thus highlighted a mode of earthquake release that may explain several large yet poorly understood historical earthquakes (e.g., 1361, 1456, 1731, 1930) located between the crest of the Apennines and the Adriatic coastline.

Unveiling the Sources of the Catastrophic 1456 Multiple Earthquake: Hints to an Unexplored Tectonic Mechanism in Southern Italy

We revisited data related to the 1456 seismic crisis, the largest earthquake to have ever occurred in peninsular Italy, in search of its causative source(s). Data about this earthquake consist solely of historical reports and their intensity assessment. Because of the age of this multiple earthquake, the scarcity and sparseness of the data, and the unusually large damage area, no previous studies have attempted to attribute the 1456 events to specific faults. Existing analytical methods to identify a likely source from intensity data also proved inappropriate for such a sparse dataset, since historical evidence suggests that the cumulative damage pattern contains at least three widely separated events. We subdivided the 1456 damage pattern into three independent mesoseismal areas; each of these areas falls onto east–west tectonic trends previously identified and marked by deep (>10 km) right-lateral slip earthquakes. Based on this evidence we propose (1) that the 1456 events were generated by individual segments of regional east–west structures and are evidence of a seismogenic style that involves oblique dextral reactivation of east–west lower crustal faults; (2) that each event may have triggered subsequent but relatively distant events in a cascade fashion, as suggested by historical accounts; hence (3) that the 1456 sequence reveals a fundamental but unexplored mechanism of tectonic deformation and seismic release in southern Italy. This style dominates the region that lies between the northwest–southeast system of large extensional faults straddling the crest of the southern Apennines and the buried outer front of the chain. Although the quality of the available information concerning the 1456 earthquake is naturally limited, we show that the overlap of the damage distribution, the orientation and characteristics of regional tectonic structures, the seismicity patterns, and the focal mechanisms all concur with our interpretations and would be difficult to justify otherwise.

Tectonic evidence for the ongoing Africa‐Eurasia convergence in central Mediterranean foreland areas: A journey among long‐lived shear zones, large earthquakes, and elusive fault motions

An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2010) American Geophysical Union

Testing a new hybrid approach to seismic hazard assessment: an application to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy)

We tested a new hybrid method for the evaluation of seismic hazard. A recently proposed fault segmentation and earthquake recurrence model of peninsular Italy suggests that the interval for which the local historical catalogue is complete is shorter than the mean recurrence time of individual large faults (∼1000 years), or at the most comparable. These new findings violate the fundamental assumption of historical probabilistic seismic hazard methods that the historical record is representative of the activity of all the seismogenic sources. The hybrid method we propose uses time-dependent modelling of the major earthquakes and catalogue-based historical probabilistic estimates for all minor events. We assume that the largest earthquakes are characteristic for individual discrete fault segments, model their probability of occurrence by a renewal process and compute the shaking associated with each of them with a simplified procedure. Then we calculate the probability of exceeding a given threshold of peak ground acceleration for specific sites as the aggregate probability of occurrence of large characteristic earthquakes and minor shocks. We apply the method to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy) performing the calculations for five major towns. The exposure to seismic hazard of Reggio Calabria, Catanzaro and Vibo Valentia, which locate close to recently activated large faults, decreases with respect to traditional time-independent estimates. On the contrary, an increase of seismic hazard is obtained for Castrovillari, which locates in an area where large faults displaying Holocene activity have been recently recognized but no significant earthquake is reported in the historical catalogue. Cosenza has the highest probability to experience a significant peak ground acceleration with both the new hybrid and the traditional approaches. We wish to stress that the present results should be interpreted only in terms of the differences between the new hybrid and the traditional approaches, not for their absolute values, and that they are not intended to be used for updating or modifying the current national seismic zonation.

Reconciling deep seismogenic and shallow active faults through analogue modelling: the case of the Messina Straits (southern Italy)

Abstract: The catastrophic 28 December 1908, Mw 7.1, Messina Straits earthquake was generated by a large, low-angle, SE-dipping, blind normal fault. A number of shallow, high-angle normal faults arranged in a graben-like fashion occur in the same area both on land and offshore, reaching the surface and in some instances affecting recent deposits. These faults are normally interpreted as active and have often been considered potentially seismogenic. We used an analogue modelling approach to simulate the evolution of a large, low-angle normal fault and investigate its relationships with the overlying secondary faults. We find that these faults represent the brittle surface expression of the long-term activity of the underlying master fault, and that all faults mapped by previous workers in the Messina Straits are compatible with sustained slip along the fault responsible for the 1908 earthquake. Our results confirm that analogue modelling provides a useful tool to investigate the evolution and the hierarchical relationships of fault systems, suggesting that this approach is effective in the investigation of complex seismogenic areas.