Gilberto Joaquim Fraga

O PASS-THROUGH DAS VARIAÇÕES DA TAXA DE CÂMBIO PARA OS PREÇOS DE EXPORTAÇÃO DE SOJA

Este trabalho tem como objetivo estimar o coeficiente de pass-through das variacoes da taxa de câmbio para os precos de exportacao da soja no Brasil, no periodo compreendido entre 1994 a 2004. Para chegar aos resultados utilizou-se econometria de series de tempo para mensurar os coeficientes de pass-through da taxa de câmbio para os precos de exportacao. O resultado revelou um grau de pass-through incompleto, da ordem de -0,34, indicando que a politica cambial pode ocasionar impactos positivos sobre o volume das exportacoes, mas, nao deve ser a unica politica de estimulo.

O Comportamento do Preço da Terra Agrícola: um modelo de painel de dados espaciais

This study analyzes the behavior of the agricultural land price in the municipalities of Parana State over the period 1999-2011. After literature review of the main studies of this field, the determinants of land price and methodology to be used were identified. For this purpose, we estimate the empirical model for price of agricultural land through spatial data panel. The results show that main statistically significant variables to explain the price of agricultural land in Parana State are the gross value of agricultural production, asset valuation, total financing in agriculture, ratio municipal investment-deterincome, percentage of planted soybeans in the municipality and the incorporation of spatial dependence on land prices. These variables can explain around 84% of the prices and indicate that the data presented great intrapanel fit, and the spatial effects would be more intense in the municipality itself and in relation to the whole. The proposed model, specially, advanced in structural terms, by incorporating data from all 399 municipalities in Parana. Empirically, the study advanced by estimating through panel data and considering the influence of spatial effects on the agricultural land price, highlighting the importance of the location and neighborhood in the price determination.

INVESTIMENTO ESTRANGEIRO DIRETO NO BRASIL: EFEITOS DIRETOS E ESPACIAIS SOBRE O CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO

This paper aims to analyze the direct and indirect effects (regional spillover) of foreign direct investment in the Brazilian states on the rate of economic growth. First, was used the procedure of spatial analysis to verify the presence of spatial correlation among the states, and then, we apply econometrics of panel data with spatial weights. The results suggest that foreign direct investment can affect economic growth directly. Also is possible to observe a regional spillover effect positive. However, this relationship demonstrates sensitive to changes in the specification.

O pass-through da taxa de câmbio para índices de preços: análise empírica para o Brasil

This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate and prices in Brazil from 1999 through 2012. Also presents a survey of theoretical and empirical literature highlighting the transmission channels of exchange price indexes in both the micro and macroeconomic. Empirical analysis uses time series econometric procedure through the Vector Error Correction. The main findings suggest a long-term relationship between exchange rates and domestic prices under consideration, although it is possible to note a degree of incomplete pass-through is also observed that the transfer is greater for the price index (IGPDI) with higher component prices wholesale.