Mary Gagen

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Latewood Width, Maximum Density, and Stable Carbon Isotope Ratios of Pine as Climate Indicators in a Dry Subalpine Environment, French Alps

Abstract Pine latewood width, density, and stable carbon isotope ratios were measured at two sites, separated in altitude by 400 m, close to the forest limit on a south-facing slope in the western French Alps. The signal to noise ratio in the δ13C series from each site is higher than that of either of the growth proxies. When the sites are combined, the high-frequency climate signal in the δ13C series is enhanced, whereas in both the ring width and density series it is weakened. Because regional climate dominates over local site conditions, δ13C ratios from long pine chronologies will provide a better indicator of past climate than either ring widths or densities. At dry Alpine sites, δ13C values are controlled mainly by stomatal conductance, which is linked to summer moisture stress and thus antecedent precipitation.

Spatial variability and temporal trends in water‐use efficiency of European forests

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree-ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX-Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land-atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree-ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south-to-north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil-water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation-climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data.

A 1200-year multiproxy record of tree growth and summer temperature at the northern pine forest limit of Europe

Combining nine tree growth proxies from four sites, from the west coast of Norway to the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia, provides a well replicated (> 100 annual measurements per year) mean index of tree growth over the last 1200 years that represents the growth of much of the northern pine timberline forests of northern Fennoscandia. The simple mean of the nine series, z-scored over their common period, correlates strongly with mean June to August temperature averaged over this region (r = 0.81), allowing reconstructions of summer temperature based on regression and variance scaling. The reconstructions correlate significantly with gridded summer temperatures across the whole of Fennoscandia, extending north across Svalbard and south into Denmark. Uncertainty in the reconstructions is estimated by combining the uncertainty in mean tree growth with the uncertainty in the regression models. Over the last seven centuries the uncertainty is < 4.5% higher than in the 20th century, and reaches a maximum of 12% above recent levels during the 10th century. The results suggest that the 20th century was the warmest of the last 1200 years, but that it was not significantly different from the 11th century. The coldest century was the 17th. The impact of volcanic eruptions is clear, and a delayed recovery from pairs or multiple eruptions suggests the presence of some positive feedback mechanism. There is no clear and consistent link between northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures and solar forcing.

Cloud response to summer temperatures in Fennoscandia over the last thousand years

Cloud cover is one of the most important factors controlling the radiation balance of the Earth. The response of cloud cover to increasing global temperatures represents the largest uncertainty in ...

Characterizing carbon isotopic variability in Sphagnum

To understand more fully the nature of isotopic fractionation in mosses and to explore the potential of stable isotope analyses of selected peat constituents for palaeoenvironmental research, we present results from a study of inter- and intra-plant δ13C variability in Sphagnum spp. Subdivisions of stem, pendant and horizontal branch elements of modern Sphagnum capillifolium plants revealed consistent and statistically significant differences in their isotopic composition. Sequential (downstem) analysis of a further cohort of four modern Sphagnum capillifolium plants also reveals evidence of common forcing on the isotopic composition of sequentially formed stem and branch increments. This relationship was tested further by analysis of a series of branch and stem samples manually recovered from Sphagnum fuscum preserved within a late Holocene (AD 2003—1970) peat monolith from a European mire. The high degree of isotopic coherence observed between plants supports the analysis of Sphagnum in palaeoecological investigations. However inter- and intra-plant variability between both branch and stem sections emphasize the need for representative sampling, replication and sample homogeneity when conducting palaeoecological studies.

Extracting Climatic Information from Stable Isotopes in Tree Rings

Publisher Summary Trees provide within the physical characteristics of their rings (width, relative density, reflectance), a record of past environmental changes, which, when expressed strongly, may be used successfully to extract palaeoclimatic information. Such approaches are now well established and have been applied globally. Trees can live for many hundreds or even thousands of years; it is, therefore, possible using these physical parameters to reconstruct climatic change throughout the life of the tree. Along with these established physical proxies, the stable carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen isotopic analyses of tree ring series provide a powerful suite of additional climate proxies. In comparison with the measurement of the physical proxies, the analysis of stable isotope ratios in tree rings is demanding, in terms of both personnel and resources. Consequently, the stable isotope analysis of tree rings can only be justified if the resulting data can provide additional, reliable climate information that cannot be obtained through alternative methods such as ring width or relative density. This chapter provides an introduction to the application of modern stable isotope techniques for the reconstruction and study of past climate from tree rings. Current challenges and limitations are discussed with specific emphasis placed on the development of robust isotope-based palaeoclimate time series and their potential for both isotopic and multiproxy analysis, using examples from a well-replicated site located close to the Boreal tree line.

Changes in atmospheric circulation and the Arctic Oscillation preserved within a millennial length reconstruction of summer cloud cover from northern Fennoscandia

Cloud cover currently represents the single greatest source of uncertainty in General Circulation Models. Stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) from tree-rings, in areas of low moisture stress, are likely to be primarily controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and therefore should provide a proxy record for cloud cover or sunshine; indeed this association has previously been demonstrated experimentally for Scots pine in Fennoscandia, with sunlight explaining ca 90% of the variance in photosynthesis and temperature only ca 4%. We present a statistically verifiable 1011-year reconstruction of cloud cover from a well replicated, annually-resolved δ13C record from Forfjord in coastal northwestern Norway. This reconstruction exhibits considerable variability in cloud cover over the past millennium, including extended sunny periods during the cool seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and warm cloudy periods during the eleventh, early fifteenth and twentieth centuries. We find that while a generally positive relationship persists between sunshine and temperature at high-frequency, at lower (multi-decadal) frequencies the relationship is more often a negative one, with cool periods being sunny (most notably the Little Ice Age period from 1600 to 1750 CE) and warm periods more cloudy (e.g. the mediaeval and the twentieth century). We conclude that these long-term changes may be caused by changes in the dominant circulation mode, likely to be associated with the Arctic Oscillation. There is also strong circumstantial evidence that prolonged periods of high summer cloud cover, with low PAR and probably high precipitation, may be in part responsible for major European famines caused by crop failures.

The climate sensitivity of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] in the southeastern European Alps

To investigate the potential of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) as a palaeoclimate archive in the southeastern European Alps, tree ring chronologies were developed from trees growing at two sites in Slovenia which differed in their ecological and climatological characteristics. Ring width, maximum latewood density, annual height increment and latewood cellulose carbon isotope composition were determined at both sites and the resulting time-series compared with and verified against instrumental climate data for their common period (AD 1960–AD 2002). Results indicate that ring width sensitivity to summer temperature is very site-dependent, with opposing responses at alpine and lowland sites. Maximum density responds to September temperatures, indicating lignification after cell division has ceased. Stable carbon isotopes have most potential, responding strongly to summer temperature in both alpine and lowland stands. Height increment appears relatively insensitive to climate, and is likely to be dominated by local stand dynamics.

Recent trends in the intrinsic water-use efficiency of ringless rainforest trees in Borneo

Stable carbon isotope (δ13C) series were developed from analysis of sequential radial wood increments from AD 1850 to AD 2009 for four mature primary rainforest trees from the Danum and Imbak areas of Sabah, Malaysia. The aseasonal equatorial climate meant that conventional dendrochronology was not possible as the tree species investigated do not exhibit clear annual rings or dateable growth bands. Chronology was established using radiocarbon dating to model age–growth relationships and date the carbon isotopic series from which the intrinsic water-use efficiency (IWUE) was calculated. The two Eusideroxylon zwageri trees from Imbak yielded ages of their pith/central wood (±1 sigma) of 670 ± 40 and 759 ± 40 years old; the less dense Shorea johorensis and Shorea superba trees at Danum yielded ages of 240 ± 40 and 330 ± 40 years, respectively. All trees studied exhibit an increase in the IWUE since AD 1960. This reflects, in part, a response of the forest to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Unlike studies of some northern European trees, no clear plateau in this response was observed. A change in the IWUE implies an associated modification of the local carbon and/or hydrological cycles. To resolve these uncertainties, a shift in emphasis away from high-resolution studies towards long, well-replicated time series is proposed to develop the environmental data essential for model evaluation. Identification of old (greater than 700 years) ringless trees demonstrates their potential in assessing the impacts of climatic and atmospheric change. It also shows the scientific and applied value of a conservation policy that ensures the survival of primary forest containing particularly old trees (as in Imbak Canyon and Danum).