Greta Carioli

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2016 with focus on leukaemias

BACKGROUND Current cancer mortality statistics are important for public health decision-making and resource allocation. Age-standardized rates and numbers of deaths are predicted for 2016 in the European Union (EU). PATIENTS AND METHODS Population and death certification data for stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organization database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected numbers of deaths by age group were obtained for 2016 by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS Projected total cancer mortality trends for 2016 in the EU are favourable in both sexes with rates of 133.5/100 000 men and 85.2/100 000 women (8% and 3% falls since 2011) corresponding to 753 600 and 605 900 deaths in men and women for a total number of 1 359 500 projected cancer deaths (+3% compared with 2011, due to population ageing). In men, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer have fallen 11%, 5% and 8%, respectively, since 2011. Breast and colorectal cancer trends in women are favourable (8% and 7% falls, respectively), but lung and pancreatic cancer rates have risen 5% and 4% since 2011 reaching rates of 14.4 and 5.6/100 000 women. Leukaemias show favourable projected mortality for both sexes and all age groups, with stronger falls in the younger age groups. All ages rates are 4.0/100 000 men and 2.5/100 000 women, with falls of 14% and 12% respectively. CONCLUSION The 2016 predictions for EU cancer mortality confirm the favourable trends in rates particularly for men. Lung cancer is likely to be the leading site for female cancer rates. Continuing falls in mortality, larger in children and young adults, are predicted in leukaemias, essentially due to advancements in management and therapy, and their subsequent adoption across Europe.

Global trends and predictions in hepatocellular carcinoma mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates have increased over recent decades in most countries. It is also the third cause of cancer death worldwide. The aim of this study is to update global trends in HCC mortality to 2014, and predict trends in rates in the EU, USA and Japan to 2020. METHODS Death certification data for HCC over the 1990-2014 period from the World Health Organization database were analyzed. Sixteen European, five American countries, and six other countries worldwide were included, as well as the EU as a whole. RESULTS In European men, mortality rates were stable during the last decade (3.5/100,000). HCC mortality increased in Northern and Central Europe, and decreased in Southern Europe. In the USA, HCC mortality increased by 35% between 2002 and 2012, reaching 3.1/100,000 men in 2012; it is predicted to remain stable to 2020. Reduced mortality rates were observed in East Asia, although they remained around 10-24/100,000 men. In Japan, HCC mortality is predicted to decrease (5.4/100,000 men in 2020). Trends were favorable in the young, but unfavorable in middle aged, except in East Asia. Mortality rates were 3- to 5-fold lower in women than men in most regions, but trends were similar. CONCLUSIONS Control of hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections has contributed to the decrease in HCC-related mortality in East Asia and Southern Europe. Unfavorable trends in other regions can be attributed to HCV (and HBV) epidemics in the 1960s and 1980s, alcohol consumption, increased overweight/obesity, and diabetes. Better management of cirrhosis, HCC diagnosis and treatment are also influencing the mortality trends worldwide. LAY SUMMARY Mortality rates due to HCC have increased in many countries over recent decades. In this study, we updated worldwide mortality trends for HCC from 1990 to 2014, and predicted trends for some countries to 2020. We observed unfavorable trends in Northern and Central Europe, North and Latin America. East Asia showed an improvement, however mortality rates in this region were 2- to 5-fold higher than in most European countries and the Americas. Steady declines to 2020 are predicted for East Asia but not for Europe and the Americas.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer

Background We predicted cancer mortality figures in the European Union (EU) for the year 2017 using most recent available data, with a focus on lung cancer. Materials and methods We retrieved cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organisation and Eurostat databases. Age-standardized (world standard population) rates were computed for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the EU overall in 1970-2012. We obtained estimates for 2017 by implementing a joinpoint regression model. Results The predicted number of cancer deaths for 2017 in the EU is 1 373 500, compared with 1 333 400 in 2012 (+3%). Cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in both sexes, reaching 131.8/100 000 men (-8.2% when compared with 2012) and 84.5/100 000 women (-3.6%). Mortality rates for all selected cancer sites are predicted to decline, except pancreatic cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women. In men, pancreatic cancer rate is stable, in women it increases by 3.5%. Lung cancer mortality rate in women is predicted to rise to 14.6/100 000 in 2017 (+5.1% since 2012, corresponding to 92 300 predicted deaths), compared with 14.0/100 000 for breast cancer, corresponding to 92 600 predicted deaths. Only younger (25-44) women have favourable lung cancer trends, and rates at this age group are predicted to be similar in women (1.4/100 000) and men (1.2/100 000). In men lung cancer rates are predicted to decline by 10.7% since 2012, and falls are observed in all age groups. Conclusion European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.

Risk factors for neuroendocrine neoplasms: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are rare cancers mainly of lung and digestive tract. Little is known on risk factors. The aim of this work is to define the risk factors for NEN development by extensive review and meta-analysis of published data. METHODS The search was conducted on Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used for study quality. Meta-analyses were conducted by primary site. Odds ratio (OR), hazard ratio, risk ratio, standardized incidence ratio, and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were abstracted. Data were combined and analyses carried out for risk factors considered by at least two studies. Random-effects model was adopted for study variation. RESULTS Of 1535 extracted articles, 24 were enrolled. Meta-analyses were possible for pancreas, small intestine, and rectum. Risk for NEN associated with: (i) family history of cancer at all investigated sites (lung, stomach, pancreas, small intestine, appendix, and colon; OR 2.12 [95% CI 1.40-3.22, I(2) = 0.0%, P = 0.681] at meta-analysis in pancreas); (ii) body mass index (BMI) or diabetes (stomach, pancreas, and small intestine; OR of 2.76 [95% CI 1.65-4.64, I(2) = 58.5%, P = 0.090] for diabetes at meta-analysis in pancreas); (iii) cigarette smoking (lung, stomach, pancreas, and small intestine; OR of 1.34 [95% CI 1.10-1.63, I(2) = 0.0%, P = 0.780] and of 1.59 [95% CI 1.07-2.37, I(2) = 32.9%, P = 0.225] for smokers versus never-smokers at meta-analysis for pancreas and small intestine); (iv) alcohol consumption (pancreas and rectum; OR of 2.44 [95% CI 1.07-5.59, I(2) = 65.8%, P = 0.054] and of 1.53 [95% CI 0.99-2.35, I(2) = 0.0%, P = 0.630] for heavy drinkers versus never-drinkers at meta-analysis for pancreas and rectum). CONCLUSIONS Family history of cancer is the most relevant risk factor for NEN development at all investigated sites, followed by BMI and diabetes. Cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption are potential risk factors for selected anatomical sites.

Trastuzumab for HER2+ metastatic breast cancer in clinical practice: Cardiotoxicity and overall survival

The evidence on efficacy and safety of trastuzumab in metastatic breast cancers (MBC) mainly derives from randomized clinical trials. We assessed short- and long-term overall survival (OS) and cardiotoxicity in a large cohort of women with MBC treated with trastuzumab in clinical settings. Using healthcare administrative data of Lombardy (10 millions inhabitants), we identified a cohort of women receiving trastuzumab for MBC between 2006 and 2009. The cumulative risk of severe cardiac events and the OS from the first trastuzumab administration were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Their predictors were assessed using Cox regression models. We found 681 trastuzumab MBC users. Thirty two (4.7%) women experienced severe cardiac adverse events. The cumulative risk increased sharply, reaching a value of 2.4% and 4.3% during the first and second year; thereafter it increased of about 1% per year. Age was a strong predictor of cardiotoxicity. The OS was 81.8%, 64.0%, 50.2%, 41.1% and 37.2% at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years, respectively. Independent predictors of worse OS were: age, brain liver or lung metastasis compared to other metastasis, use of taxanes and other chemotherapies, a cardiac adverse event after trastuzumab use, and a higher time between metastasis and BC diagnoses. The incidence of cardiotoxicity among women treated with trastuzumab for HER2-positive MBC appeared higher than that reported in RCTs, particularly in elder patients. In spite of this, median survival, was, if anything, better.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2018 with focus on colorectal cancer

Background We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer. Materials and methods We obtained cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970-2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models. Results EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100 000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1 382 000 when compared with 1 333 362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100 000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012, +5.8%) and 94 500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92 700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100 000 men (-6.7%) and 9.2 in women (-7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose +2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392 300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s. Conclusion We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and-above age 50 years-organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.

Cancer mortality predictions for 2017 in Latin America

Background From most recent available data, we predicted cancer mortality statistics in selected Latin American countries for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer. Materials and methods We obtained death certification data from the World Health Organization and population data from the Pan American Health Organization database for all neoplasms and selected cancer sites. We derived figures for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model, we estimated number of deaths and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates in 2017. Results Total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in all countries. The highest mortality rates for 2017 are in Cuba, i.e. 132.3/100 000 men and 93.3/100 000 women. Mexico had the lowest predicted rates, 64.7/100 000 men and 60.6/100 000 women. In contrast, the total number of cancer deaths is expected to rise due to population ageing and growth. Men showed declines in lung cancer trends in all countries and age groups considered, while only Colombian and Mexican women had downward trends. Stomach and (cervix) uteri rates are predicted to continue their declines, though mortality from these neoplasms remains comparatively high. Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer rates were predicted to decline moderately, as well as leukaemias. There was no clear pattern for pancreatic cancer. Between 1990 and 2017 about 420 000 cancer deaths were avoided in 5 of the 7 countries, no progress was observed in Brazil and Cuba. Conclusion Cancer mortality rates for 2017 in seven selected Latin American countries are predicted to decline, though there was appreciable variability across countries. Mortality from major cancers-including lung and prostate-and all cancers remains comparatively high in Cuba, indicating the need for improved prevention and management.

Global trends in nasopharyngeal cancer mortality since 1970 and predictions for 2020: Focus on low-risk areas

Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) mortality shows great disparity between endemic high risk areas, where non‐keratinizing carcinoma (NKC) histology is prevalent, and non‐endemic low risk regions, where the keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma (KSCC) type is more frequent. We used the World Health Organization database to calculate NPC mortality trends from 1970 to 2014 in several countries worldwide. For the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Japan, we also predicted trends to 2020. In 2012, the highest age‐standardized (world standard) rates were in Hong Kong (4.51/100,000 men and 1.15/100,000 women), followed by selected Eastern European countries. The lowest rates were in Northern Europe and Latin America. EU rates were 0.27/100,000 men and 0.09/100,000 women, US rates were 0.20/100,000 men and 0.08/100,000 women and Japanese rates were 0.16/100,000 men and 0.04/100,000 women. NPC mortality trends were favourable for several countries. The decline was −15% in men and −5% in women between 2002 and 2012 in the EU, −12% in men and −9% in women in the US and about −30% in both sexes in Hong Kong and Japan. The favourable patterns in Europe and the United States are predicted to continue. Changes in salted fish and preserved food consumption account for the fall in NKC. Smoking and alcohol prevalence disparities between sexes and geographic areas may explain the different rates and trends observed for KSCC and partially for NKC. Dietary patterns, as well as improvement in management of the disease, may partly account for the observed trends, too.

Mediterranean Diet and Breast Cancer Risk

The Mediterranean diet has been related to a reduced risk of several common cancers but its role on breast cancer has not been quantified yet. We investigated the association between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and breast cancer risk by means of a hospital-based case-control study conducted in Italy and Switzerland. 3034 breast cancer cases and 3392 controls admitted to the same network of hospitals for acute, non-neoplastic and non-gynaecologic diseases were studied. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was quantitatively measured through a Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), summarizing the major characteristics of the Mediterranean dietary pattern and ranging from 0 (lowest adherence) to 9 (highest adherence). We estimated the odds ratios (ORs) of breast cancer for the MDS using multiple logistic regression models, adjusting for several covariates. Compared to a MDS of 0–3, the ORs for breast cancer were 0.86 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.76–0.98) for a MDS of 4–5 and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.71–0.95) for a MDS of 6–9 (p for trend = 0.008). The exclusion of the ethanol component from the MDS did not materially modify the ORs (e.g., OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.70–0.95, for MDS ≥ 6). Results were similar in pre- and post-menopausal women. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with a reduced breast cancer risk.

Trends and predictions to 2020 in breast cancer mortality: Americas and Australasia

OBJECTIVES We considered trends in breast cancer mortality for 12 American and 8 Australasian countries during 1970-2014, and predicted rates for 2020. MATERIALS AND METHODS We obtained official death certification data for breast cancer and population figures from the World Health Organization, Pan American Health Organization and United Nations databases. We derived age-standardized rates (world standard population), and predictions for 2020 using joinpoint regression. RESULTS Breast cancer mortality trends were favourable in North America and Oceania, and a further 10% reduction in their overall rates is predicted for 2020, to reach values of 11-12/100,000 women, i.e. about 50% lower than their top rates in the later 1980s. Hong Kong, Japan and Korea did not show appreciable trends, but their rates remained below 10/100,000. Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Brazil also had stable rates, below or around 10/100,000. Breast cancer mortality was higher in Argentina, Cuba and Venezuela, and only Argentina showed some favourable trends over recent years, and predictions to 2020 around 16/100,000. Trends and predictions were less favourable in Israel, New Zealand, and the Philippines than in most other countries with predicted rates in 2020 between 13 and 16/100,000. CONCLUSION In several high-income countries, the fall in breast cancer mortality, due to improved treatment and diagnosis, has been the major success in the management of any common cancer over the last three decades. There are, however, persistent disparities in the global decline in breast cancer, which call for urgent management improvements in several areas of the world, particularly in middle-income countries.