Matteo Malvezzi

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014

BACKGROUND From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes. PATIENTS AND METHODS Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS In the EU in 2014, 1,323,600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742,500 men and 581,100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100,000 men and 84.7/100,000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises. CONCLUSIONS Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250,000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.

Recent patterns in gastric cancer: A global overview

Until the mid‐1990s, gastric cancer has been the first cause of cancer death worldwide, although rates had been declining for several decades and gastric cancer has become a relatively rare cancer in North America and in most Northern and Western Europe, but not in Eastern Europe, Russia and selected areas of Central and South America or East Asia. We analyzed gastric cancer mortality in Europe and other areas of the world from 1980 to 2005 using joinpoint regression analysis, and provided updated site‐specific incidence rates from 51 selected registries. Over the last decade, the annual percent change (APC) in mortality rate was around −3, −4% for the major European countries. The APC were similar for the Republic of Korea (APC = −4.3%), Australia (−3.7%), the USA (−3.6%), Japan (−3.5%), Ukraine (−3%) and the Russian Federation (−2.8%). In Latin America, the decline was less marked, but constant with APC around −1.6% in Chile and Brazil, −2.3% in Argentina and Mexico and −2.6% in Colombia. Cancers in the fundus and pylorus are more common in high incidence and mortality areas and have been declining more than cardia gastric cancer. Steady downward trends persist in gastric cancer mortality worldwide even in middle aged population, and hence further appreciable declines are likely in the near future.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Mechanisms of Disease: the epidemiology of bladder cancer

Mortality from bladder cancer has shown downward trends over the last 2 decades in several western European countries (albeit 10–15 years later than similar trends in the US), but is still increasing in some eastern European countries. Tobacco smoking and occupational exposure to aromatic amines are the two major established environmental risk factors for bladder cancer. Controlling exposure to these factors has been an important contributor to the reduction in bladder cancer mortality, particularly among men. Diet could influence bladder carcinogenesis, as many compounds contained in foods—and their metabolites—are excreted through the urinary tract. Fruit and vegetable consumption was inversely related with bladder cancer in many studies, but no consistent association has emerged between intake of related micronutrients and reduced risk of bladder cancer. Other widely investigated lifestyle habits are probably not associated with risk of developing bladder cancer (e.g. coffee consumption, artificial sweetener use, hair dyes) or are difficult to assess (e.g. fluid intake). Infections and stones in the urinary tract might cause chronic irritation of the bladder epithelium, and thus increase bladder cancer risk. First-degree relatives of bladder cancer patients have a 50–100% increased relative risk of developing the disease, a risk that could be even higher when the proband is diagnosed at an early age.

Thyroid cancer mortality and incidence: A global overview

In most areas of the world, thyroid cancer incidence has been appreciably increasing over the last few decades, whereas mortality has steadily declined. We updated global trends in thyroid cancer mortality and incidence using official mortality data from the World Health Organization (1970–2012) and incidence data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (1960–2007). Male mortality declined in all the major countries considered, with annual percent changes around −2/−3% over the last decades. Only in the United States mortality declined up to the mid 1980s and increased thereafter. Similarly, in women mortality declined in most countries considered, with APCs around −2/−5% over the last decades, with the exception of the UK, the United States and Australia, where mortality has been declining up to the late 1980s/late 1990s to level off (or increase) thereafter. In 2008–2012, most countries had mortality rates (age‐standardized, world population) between 0.20 and 0.40/100,000 men and 0.20 and 0.60/100,000 women, the highest rates being in Latvia, Hungary, the Republic of Moldova and Israel (over 0.40/100,000) for men and in Ecuador, Colombia and Israel (over 0.60/100,000) for women. In most countries, a steady increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (mainly papillary carcinomas) was observed in both sexes. The declines in thyroid cancer mortality reflect both variations in risk factor exposure and changes in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease, while the increases in the incidence are likely due to the increase in the detection of this neoplasm over the last few decades.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015: does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS A total of 1,359,100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766,200 men and 592,900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100,000 men and 83.9/100,000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100,000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates--though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325,000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.

Trends in mortality from coronary heart and cerebrovascular diseases in the Americas: 1970–2000

Objective: To describe trends in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) over the period 1970 to 2000 in the Americas. Methods: Age standardised mortality rates were derived from the World Health Organization database and grouped according to the International classification of diseases, ninth revision. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify changes in trends. Results: In the USA and Canada, CHD mortality rates declined by about 60% in both sexes. In Latin America, falls in CHD mortality were observed for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, and Puerto Rico. In 2000, mortality rates among men were highest in Venezuela (137.3/100 000) and lowest (apart from Ecuador) in Argentina (63.5/100 000). For women, the rates were highest in Cuba (79.4/100 000) and lowest in Argentina (26.5/100 000). For CVA mortality, a decline by about 60% was observed in the USA and Canada for both sexes. The falls were smaller (about −25% to −40% among men and −20% to −50% among women) in Puerto Rico, Argentina, Chile, and Costa Rica and only minor in Ecuador, Mexico, and Venezuela. Around 2000, CVA mortality in Latin America was highest in Brazil (85.5/100 000 among men and 61.7/100 000 among women) and lowest in Puerto Rico (29.3/100 000 among men and 24.1/100 000 among women). Conclusions: Recent falls in CHD and CVA were less favourable in Latin America than in the USA and Canada. This may reflect unfavourable changes in nutrition (including obesity), physical activity, and smoking in most Latin American countries, together with less effective control of hypertension and management of the diseases.

Epidemiology of biliary tract cancers: an update

BACKGROUND Biliary tract cancer (BTC) is a rare cancer in Europe and North America, characterized by wide geographic variation, with high incidence in some areas of Latin America and Asia. MATERIALS AND METHODS BTC mortality and incidence have been updated according to recent data, using joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS Since the 1980s, decreasing trends in BTC mortality rates (age-standardized, world standard population) were observed in the European Union as a whole, in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Israel, New Zealand, and the United States, and high-risk countries such as Japan and Venezuela. Joinpoint regression analysis indicates that decreasing trends were more favorable over recent calendar periods. High-mortality rates are, however, still evident in central and eastern Europe (4-5/100,000 women), Japan (4/100,000 women), and Chile (16.6/100,000 women). Incidence rates identified other high-risk areas in India (8.5/100,000 women), Korea (5.6/100,000 women), and Shanghai, China (5.2/100,000 women). CONCLUSIONS The decreasing BTC mortality trends essentially reflect more widespread and earlier adoption of cholecystectomy in several countries, since gallstones are the major risk factor for BTC. There are, however, high-risk areas, mainly from South America and India, where access to gall-bladder surgery remains inadequate.

The Mesothelioma epidemic in Western Europe: an update

The number of male deaths from pleural cancer in France, Germany and Italy increased from about 8750 in 1990–1994 to 9550 in 1995–1999, suggesting that mesothelioma deaths in males may be levelling off in most of Western Europe.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2016 with focus on leukaemias

BACKGROUND Current cancer mortality statistics are important for public health decision-making and resource allocation. Age-standardized rates and numbers of deaths are predicted for 2016 in the European Union (EU). PATIENTS AND METHODS Population and death certification data for stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organization database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected numbers of deaths by age group were obtained for 2016 by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS Projected total cancer mortality trends for 2016 in the EU are favourable in both sexes with rates of 133.5/100 000 men and 85.2/100 000 women (8% and 3% falls since 2011) corresponding to 753 600 and 605 900 deaths in men and women for a total number of 1 359 500 projected cancer deaths (+3% compared with 2011, due to population ageing). In men, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer have fallen 11%, 5% and 8%, respectively, since 2011. Breast and colorectal cancer trends in women are favourable (8% and 7% falls, respectively), but lung and pancreatic cancer rates have risen 5% and 4% since 2011 reaching rates of 14.4 and 5.6/100 000 women. Leukaemias show favourable projected mortality for both sexes and all age groups, with stronger falls in the younger age groups. All ages rates are 4.0/100 000 men and 2.5/100 000 women, with falls of 14% and 12% respectively. CONCLUSION The 2016 predictions for EU cancer mortality confirm the favourable trends in rates particularly for men. Lung cancer is likely to be the leading site for female cancer rates. Continuing falls in mortality, larger in children and young adults, are predicted in leukaemias, essentially due to advancements in management and therapy, and their subsequent adoption across Europe.