Hans D. Daetwyler

The Impact of Genetic Architecture on Genome-Wide Evaluation Methods

The rapid increase in high-throughput single-nucleotide polymorphism data has led to a great interest in applying genome-wide evaluation methods to identify an individuals genetic merit. Genome-wide evaluation combines statistical methods with genomic data to predict genetic values for complex traits. Considerable uncertainty currently exists in determining which genome-wide evaluation method is the most appropriate. We hypothesize that genome-wide methods deal differently with the genetic architecture of quantitative traits and genomes. A genomic linear method (GBLUP), and a genomic nonlinear Bayesian variable selection method (BayesB) are compared using stochastic simulation across three effective population sizes and a wide range of numbers of quantitative trait loci (NQTL). GBLUP had a constant accuracy, for a given heritability and sample size, regardless of NQTL. BayesB had a higher accuracy than GBLUP when NQTL was low, but this advantage diminished as NQTL increased and when NQTL became large, GBLUP slightly outperformed BayesB. In addition, deterministic equations are extended to predict the accuracy of both methods and to estimate the number of independent chromosome segments (Me) and NQTL. The predictions of accuracy and estimates of Me and NQTL were generally in good agreement with results from simulated data. We conclude that the relative accuracy of GBLUP and BayesB for a given number of records and heritability are highly dependent on Me, which is a property of the target genome, as well as the architecture of the trait (NQTL).

Accuracy of Predicting the Genetic Risk of Disease Using a Genome-Wide Approach

Background The prediction of the genetic disease risk of an individual is a powerful public health tool. While predicting risk has been successful in diseases which follow simple Mendelian inheritance, it has proven challenging in complex diseases for which a large number of loci contribute to the genetic variance. The large numbers of single nucleotide polymorphisms now available provide new opportunities for predicting genetic risk of complex diseases with high accuracy. Methodology/Principal Findings We have derived simple deterministic formulae to predict the accuracy of predicted genetic risk from population or case control studies using a genome-wide approach and assuming a dichotomous disease phenotype with an underlying continuous liability. We show that the prediction equations are special cases of the more general problem of predicting the accuracy of estimates of genetic values of a continuous phenotype. Our predictive equations are responsive to all parameters that affect accuracy and they are independent of allele frequency and effect distributions. Deterministic prediction errors when tested by simulation were generally small. The common link among the expressions for accuracy is that they are best summarized as the product of the ratio of number of phenotypic records per number of risk loci and the observed heritability. Conclusions/Significance This study advances the understanding of the relative power of case control and population studies of disease. The predictions represent an upper bound of accuracy which may be achievable with improved effect estimation methods. The formulae derived will help researchers determine an appropriate sample size to attain a certain accuracy when predicting genetic risk.

Whole-Genome Regression and Prediction Methods Applied to Plant and Animal Breeding

Genomic-enabled prediction is becoming increasingly important in animal and plant breeding and is also receiving attention in human genetics. Deriving accurate predictions of complex traits requires implementing whole-genome regression (WGR) models where phenotypes are regressed on thousands of markers concurrently. Methods exist that allow implementing these large-p with small-n regressions, and genome-enabled selection (GS) is being implemented in several plant and animal breeding programs. The list of available methods is long, and the relationships between them have not been fully addressed. In this article we provide an overview of available methods for implementing parametric WGR models, discuss selected topics that emerge in applications, and present a general discussion of lessons learned from simulation and empirical data analysis in the last decade.

Whole-genome sequencing of 234 bulls facilitates mapping of monogenic and complex traits in cattle

The 1000 bull genomes project supports the goal of accelerating the rates of genetic gain in domestic cattle while at the same time considering animal health and welfare by providing the annotated sequence variants and genotypes of key ancestor bulls. In the first phase of the 1000 bull genomes project, we sequenced the whole genomes of 234 cattle to an average of 8.3-fold coverage. This sequencing includes data for 129 individuals from the global Holstein-Friesian population, 43 individuals from the Fleckvieh breed and 15 individuals from the Jersey breed. We identified a total of 28.3 million variants, with an average of 1.44 heterozygous sites per kilobase for each individual. We demonstrate the use of this database in identifying a recessive mutation underlying embryonic death and a dominant mutation underlying lethal chrondrodysplasia. We also performed genome-wide association studies for milk production and curly coat, using imputed sequence variants, and identified variants associated with these traits in cattle.

Genomic Prediction in Animals and Plants: Simulation of Data, Validation, Reporting and Benchmarking

The genomic prediction of phenotypes and breeding values in animals and plants has developed rapidly into its own research field. Results of genomic prediction studies are often difficult to compare because data simulation varies, real or simulated data are not fully described, and not all relevant results are reported. In addition, some new methods have been compared only in limited genetic architectures, leading to potentially misleading conclusions. In this article we review simulation procedures, discuss validation and reporting of results, and apply benchmark procedures for a variety of genomic prediction methods in simulated and real example data. Plant and animal breeding programs are being transformed by the use of genomic data, which are becoming widely available and cost-effective to predict genetic merit. A large number of genomic prediction studies have been published using both simulated and real data. The relative novelty of this area of research has made the development of scientific conventions difficult with regard to description of the real data, simulation of genomes, validation and reporting of results, and forward in time methods. In this review article we discuss the generation of simulated genotype and phenotype data, using approaches such as the coalescent and forward in time simulation. We outline ways to validate simulated data and genomic prediction results, including cross-validation. The accuracy and bias of genomic prediction are highlighted as performance indicators that should be reported. We suggest that a measure of relatedness between the reference and validation individuals be reported, as its impact on the accuracy of genomic prediction is substantial. A large number of methods were compared in example simulated and real (pine and wheat) data sets, all of which are publicly available. In our limited simulations, most methods performed similarly in traits with a large number of quantitative trait loci (QTL), whereas in traits with fewer QTL variable selection did have some advantages. In the real data sets examined here all methods had very similar accuracies. We conclude that no single method can serve as a benchmark for genomic prediction. We recommend comparing accuracy and bias of new methods to results from genomic best linear prediction and a variable selection approach (e.g., BayesB), because, together, these methods are appropriate for a range of genetic architectures. An accompanying article in this issue provides a comprehensive review of genomic prediction methods and discusses a selection of topics related to application of genomic prediction in plants and animals.

The importance of information on relatives for the prediction of genomic breeding values and the implications for the makeup of reference data sets in livestock breeding schemes

BackgroundThe theory of genomic selection is based on the prediction of the effects of genetic markers in linkage disequilibrium with quantitative trait loci. However, genomic selection also relies on relationships between individuals to accurately predict genetic value. This study aimed to examine the importance of information on relatives versus that of unrelated or more distantly related individuals on the estimation of genomic breeding values.MethodsSimulated and real data were used to examine the effects of various degrees of relationship on the accuracy of genomic selection. Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (gBLUP) was compared to two pedigree based BLUP methods, one with a shallow one generation pedigree and the other with a deep ten generation pedigree. The accuracy of estimated breeding values for different groups of selection candidates that had varying degrees of relationships to a reference data set of 1750 animals was investigated.ResultsThe gBLUP method predicted breeding values more accurately than BLUP. The most accurate breeding values were estimated using gBLUP for closely related animals. Similarly, the pedigree based BLUP methods were also accurate for closely related animals, however when the pedigree based BLUP methods were used to predict unrelated animals, the accuracy was close to zero. In contrast, gBLUP breeding values, for animals that had no pedigree relationship with animals in the reference data set, allowed substantial accuracy.ConclusionsAn animals relationship to the reference data set is an important factor for the accuracy of genomic predictions. Animals that share a close relationship to the reference data set had the highest accuracy from genomic predictions. However a baseline accuracy that is driven by the reference data set size and the overall population effective population size enables gBLUP to estimate a breeding value for unrelated animals within a population (breed), using information previously ignored by pedigree based BLUP methods.

A Genome Scan to Detect Quantitative Trait Loci for Economically Important Traits in Holstein Cattle Using Two Methods and a Dense Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Map

Genome scans for detection of bovine quantitative trait loci (QTL) were performed via variance component linkage analysis and linkage disequilibrium single-locus regression (LDRM). Four hundred eighty-four Holstein sires, of which 427 were from 10 grandsire families, were genotyped for 9,919 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) using the Affymetrix MegAllele GeneChip Bovine Mapping 10K SNP array. A hybrid of the grand-daughter and selective genotyping designs was applied. Four thousand eight hundred fifty-six of the 9,919 SNP were located to chromosomes in base-pairs and formed the basis for the analyses. The mean polymorphism information content of the SNP was 0.25. The SNP centimorgan position was interpolated from their base-pair position using a microsatellite framework map. Estimated breeding values were used as observations, and the following traits were analyzed: 305-d lactation milk, fat, and protein yield; somatic cell score; herd life; interval of calving to first service; and age at first service. The variance component linkage analysis detected 102 potential QTL, whereas LDRM analysis found 144 significant SNP associations after accounting for a 5% false discovery rate. Twenty potential QTL and 49 significant SNP associations were in close proximity to QTL cited in the literature. Both methods found significant regions on Bos taurus autosome (BTA) 3, 5, and 16 for milk yield; BTA 14 and 19 for fat yield; BTA 1, 3, 16, and 28 for protein yield; BTA 2 and 13 for calving to first service; and BTA 14 for age at first service. Both approaches were effective in detecting potential QTL with a dense SNP map. The LDRM was well suited for a first genome scan due to its approximately 8 times lower computational demands. Further fine mapping should be applied on the chromosomal regions of interest found in this study.

Components of the accuracy of genomic prediction in a multi-breed sheep population

In genome-wide association studies, failure to remove variation due to population structure results in spurious associations. In contrast, for predictions of future phenotypes or estimated breeding values from dense SNP data, exploiting population structure arising from relatedness can actually increase the accuracy of prediction in some cases, for example, when the selection candidates are offspring of the reference population where the prediction equation was derived. In populations with large effective population size or with multiple breeds and strains, it has not been demonstrated whether and when accounting for or removing variation due to population structure will affect the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our aim in this study was to determine whether accounting for population structure would increase the accuracy of genomic predictions, both within and across breeds. First, we have attempted to decompose the accuracy of genomic prediction into contributions from population structure or linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers and QTL using a diverse multi-breed sheep (Ovis aries) data set, genotyped for 48,640 SNP. We demonstrate that SNP from a single chromosome can achieve up to 86% of the accuracy for genomic predictions using all SNP. This result suggests that most of the prediction accuracy is due to population structure, because a single chromosome is expected to capture relationships but is unlikely to contain all QTL. We then explored principal component analysis (PCA) as an approach to disentangle the respective contributions of population structure and LD between SNP and QTL to the accuracy of genomic predictions. Results showed that fitting an increasing number of principle components (PC; as covariates) decreased within breed accuracy until a lower plateau was reached. We speculate that this plateau is a measure of the accuracy due to LD. In conclusion, a large proportion of the accuracy for genomic predictions in our data was due to variation associated with population structure. Surprisingly, accounting for this structure generally decreased the accuracy of across breed genomic predictions.

Accuracy of genotype imputation in sheep breeds

Although genomic selection offers the prospect of improving the rate of genetic gain in meat, wool and dairy sheep breeding programs, the key constraint is likely to be the cost of genotyping. Potentially, this constraint can be overcome by genotyping selection candidates for a low density (low cost) panel of SNPs with sparse genotype coverage, imputing a much higher density of SNP genotypes using a densely genotyped reference population. These imputed genotypes would then be used with a prediction equation to produce genomic estimated breeding values. In the future, it may also be desirable to impute very dense marker genotypes or even whole genome re-sequence data from moderate density SNP panels. Such a strategy could lead to an accurate prediction of genomic estimated breeding values across breeds, for example. We used genotypes from 48 640 (50K) SNPs genotyped in four sheep breeds to investigate both the accuracy of imputation of the 50K SNPs from low density SNP panels, as well as prospects for imputing very dense or whole genome re-sequence data from the 50K SNPs (by leaving out a small number of the 50K SNPs at random). Accuracy of imputation was low if the sparse panel had less than 5000 (5K) markers. Across breeds, it was clear that the accuracy of imputing from sparse marker panels to 50K was higher if the genetic diversity within a breed was lower, such that relationships among animals in that breed were higher. The accuracy of imputation from sparse genotypes to 50K genotypes was higher when the imputation was performed within breed rather than when pooling all the data, despite the fact that the pooled reference set was much larger. For Border Leicesters, Poll Dorsets and White Suffolks, 5K sparse genotypes were sufficient to impute 50K with 80% accuracy. For Merinos, the accuracy of imputing 50K from 5K was lower at 71%, despite a large number of animals with full genotypes (2215) being used as a reference. For all breeds, the relationship of individuals to the reference explained up to 64% of the variation in accuracy of imputation, demonstrating that accuracy of imputation can be increased if sires and other ancestors of the individuals to be imputed are included in the reference population. The accuracy of imputation could also be increased if pedigree information was available and was used in tracking inheritance of large chromosome segments within families. In our study, we only considered methods of imputation based on population-wide linkage disequilibrium (largely because the pedigree for some of the populations was incomplete). Finally, in the scenarios designed to mimic imputation of high density or whole genome re-sequence data from the 50K panel, the accuracy of imputation was much higher (86-96%). This is promising, suggesting that in silico genome re-sequencing is possible in sheep if a suitable pool of key ancestors is sequenced for each breed.

Designing dairy cattle breeding schemes under genomic selection: a review of international research

High rates of genetic gain can be achieved through (1) accurate predictions of breeding values (2) high intensities of selection and (3) shorter generation intervals. Reliabilities of ~60% are currently achievable using genomic selection in dairy cattle. This breakthrough means that selection of animals can happen at a very early age (i.e. as soon as a DNA sample is available) and has opened opportunities to radically redesign breeding schemes. Most research over the past decade has focussed on the feasibility of genomic selection, especially how to increase the accuracy of genomic breeding values. More recently, how to apply genomic technology to breeding schemes has generated a lot of interest. Some of this research remains the intellectual property of breeding companies, but there are examples in the public domain. Here we review published research into breeding scheme design using genomic selection and evaluate which designs appear to be promising (in terms of rates of genetic gain) and those that may have unfavourable side-effects (i.e. increasing the rate of inbreeding). The schemes range from fairly conservative designs where bulls are screened genomically to reduce numbers entering progeny testing, to schemes where very large numbers of bull calves are screened and used as sires as soon as they reach sexual maturity. More radical schemes that incorporate the use of reproductive technologies (in juveniles) and genomic selection in nucleus herds are also described. The models used are either deterministic and more recently tend to be stochastic, simulating populations of cattle. A key driver of the rate of genetic gain is the generation interval, which could range from being similar to that in conventional testing (~5 years), down to as little as 1.5 years. Generally, the rate of genetic gain is between 12% and 100% more than in conventional progeny testing, while the rate of inbreeding tends to be lower per generation than in progeny testing because Mendelian sampling terms can be estimated more accurately. However, short generation intervals can lead to higher rates of inbreeding per year in genomic breeding programs.