Harold O. Carter

An Application of Statistical Decision Theory to Commercial Turkey Production

This article provides an empirical application of Bayesian decision theory to management decisions under uncertainty. The empirical problem is one of choice between contract and independent production of turkeys. The major random variables affecting incomes are product prices and mortality rates. The optimal action is first determined where only prior probabilities of the states of nature are available. Optimal strategies are then determined where a price-forecasting model is available and posterior probabilities of the states are determined. The value of the additional information provided by the price-forecasting model is substantial. Simulated growth in firm net worth is faster and more stable when the price-forecasting model is used.

A Hungry World: Lessons from a Land-Grant-School Perspective

are facing their worst financial crisis in half a century, due in no small part to their success in production, while millions of farmers in other regions of the world cannot produce enough to feed even their own families. This disparity between the industrialized and developing nations not only emphasizes the complexity of the global food problem but also is an everpresent reminder of the long-term nature of the development process. My comments relate mainly to the role of land grant universities in development assistance. I contend that aid and assistance for