Harold W. Stanley

Southern Partisan Changes: Dealignment, Realignment or Both?

This paper draws on presidential and congressional surveys between 1952 and 1984 in order to survey the extent of southern partisan changes and to evaluate the electoral evidence for realignment or dealignment. The partisan balance in the South has shifted in recent years, but no consensus exists about whether these changes constitute realignment or dealignment. Native southern whites--both young and old--have accounted for the largest share of the changes. Settling on a single term to summarize the changes is an oversimplification since aspects of both realignment and dealignment have characterized the South. Southern Republicans have profited from the decreased importance of parties in a still-Democratic region, but since partisanship means less in some senses, Republican consolidation is constrained and the significance of the Democratic decline restricted.

The transformation of the new deal party system: Social groups, political ideology, and changing partisanship among northern whites, 1972–1988

This paper examines the partisanship of a neglected segment of the American electorate—white northerners. Like their southern counterparts, northern whites have moved toward the GOP (Grand Old Party) and away from the Democratic party during the last two decades. In fact, a substantial plurality of northern whites now identify with the Republican party. Moreover, Democratic losses and Republican gains have not been confined to particular categories of social groups but have cut across groups traditionally identified with the parties. However, political ideology is closely related to the changing partisanship of northern whites. Liberals have become more Democratic and conservatives have become substantially more Republican since 1972. Moreover, the relationship between ideology and changing partisanship occurs within most categories of social group membership, suggesting that ideological orientations now override social group ties in the formation of partisanship. The northern white electorate, in sum, is undergoing an ideological transformation that is reshaping the contours of American politics.

PARTISANSHIP AND GROUP SUPPORT OVER TIME: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS

parties by means of multivariate techniques that have become standard in other areas of political behavior. This approach yields improved insights into the marginal difference made by membership in each group and into the nature of a partys support coalition. As an example of this approach, we analyze the Democratic coalition since 1952. Our results differ from those of previous studies in a number of ways. Most significantly, differences with respect to the strength and timing of partisan changes lend support to Carmines and Stimsons conclusion that a realignment centering on race occurred in the mid-1960s. Our findings also indicate that the Democratic party is no longer so dependent on a few groups, as it was in the 1950s, but is now almost equally dependent on six groups.

Minority Turnout and the Creation of Majority-Minority Districts

In the construction of majority-minority districts, it has typically been assumed that turnout of minority voters is low compared to that of Whites. But what happens in the minority-dominated districts that are created? With a considerably enhanced ability to elect a candidate of their own choosing, does turnout increase? We test whether the creation of majority-minority legislative districts in Florida increased turnout of Black and Hispanic voters in 1992. The results are mixed. Over-time comparisons suggest that turnout of both groups might have benefitted from the creation of majority-minority districts. Cross-sectional analyses, however, suggest both increases and decreases in turnout in the newly created minority districts. We cannot yet conclude that the creation of minority-dominated districts has a consistent effect on minority turnout.

Class Polarization in Partisanship among Native Southern Whites, 1952-90

Multivariate analyses of National Elections Studies data reveal that class-based partisanship of native southern whites, absent or inverted in the past, has surfaced in the past 15 years. In the 1950s, the higher the status of a native southern white, the more likely the individual was to identify as a Democrat. No clear class basis for partisanship prevailed in the 1960s and early 1970s. Since the mid-1970s, class polarization typical of the rest of the nation has characterized native southern whites, with higher status individuals favoring Republican identification.

Testing the Converse Partisanship Model with New Electorates

Converse proposed a model drawing on an individuals experience with the vote and socialization by the father to explain the strength of political partisanship. This experience-based model, despite varied criticisms, has gained wide acceptance. By focusing on cases in which political experience and age are not collinear, this article finds that the Converse model fails to account for the strength of partisanship found among new electorates, thereby raising doubts about the model in general.

Class, Party, and South/Non-South Differences An Update

This article examines the past 50 years to update an analysis of the relationship between income and partisanship. Earlier, Nadeau and Stanley noted that therewas a change in partisanship in the South from inverse class polarization, in which higher income individuals more often identified with the Democratic Party, to normal class polarization, but the permanence of the shiftwas open to question. Now, with a longer time perspective and even greater partisan change, it can be concluded that class-based partisanship is not only a reality in the South but that it is now considerably stronger than in the rest of the country. Moreover, the South has not simply surged past a stable non-Southern level; greater polarization in the South has occurred in the context of growing class polarization in the non-South.

The American Presidential Election of 2008

Every election has unique elements. The American presidential election of 2008 had more than its share. The nomination phase on the Democratic side was the most long-drawn-out affair since the primary became the dominant mode of nomination after the 1968 election. That contest also featured the first-ever nomination by a major party of an African American. His opponent was the first woman to come close to winning a presidential nomination. In the election phase, not only was one candidate black; the Republican side had a female vice-presidential candidate who captured an unprecedented amount of attention and may have been a larger factor in the result than any previous nominee for the second spot on the ticket. The context was also highly unusual. The primary season began while the US was debating its role in one of the longest wars in its history (Iraq), with another war (Afghanistan) looming in the background. During the primary and general election campaigns the country experienced the worst economy crisis since the Great Depression, including bankruptcies of major economic institutions and the worst decline of the stock market in 75 years. Elections differ but they may also exhibit some continuity. The partisan, polarized politics of recent elections, including 2008, have vividly demonstrated one theme of The American Voter , published almost a half century ago: partisanship powerfully shapes the vote as well as individual evaluations of candidates, issues, and parties. Both candidates promised to rise above polarized partisan politics. For political scientists, these points about the 2008 election opened up a host of questions. In the primary season, these important questions arose:

Voter Mobilization and the Politics of Race: The South and Universal Suffrage, 1952-1984.

Preface Introduction Southern Voting Causes of Southen Electoral Expansion Southern Election Expansion Racial Attitudes Socioeconomic Condition Competition, Attitudes, and Media Usage Registration Requirements Political Consequences of Southern Electoral Expansion Political Implications General Considerations Appendix A: The Reliability of the Data Appendix B: Southern Counties and Independent Cities in the SRC/CPS National Elections Studies Samples, 1952-84 Appendix C: Data Sources Appendix D: Logit Analysis Appendix E: Remedying Missing Data Appendix F: White Voter Response to Black-Backed Candidates, 1956 and 1960 Bibliography Index