Helen Amanda Fricker

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves

Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

An Active Subglacial Water System in West Antarctica Mapped from Space

Satellite laser altimeter elevation profiles from 2003 to 2006 collected over the lower parts of Whillans and Mercer ice streams, West Antarctica, reveal 14 regions of temporally varying elevation, which we interpret as the surface expression of subglacial water movement. Vertical motion and spatial extent of two of the largest regions are confirmed by satellite image differencing. A major, previously unknown subglacial lake near the grounding line of Whillans Ice Stream is observed to drain 2.0 cubic kilometers of water into the ocean over ∼3 years, while elsewhere a similar volume of water is being stored subglacially. These observations reveal a wide spread, dynamic subglacial water system that may exert an important control on ice flow and mass balance.

A New Tide Model for the Antarctic Ice Shelves and Seas

Abstract We describe a new tide model for the seas surrounding Antarctica, including the ocean cavities under the floating ice shelves. The model uses data assimilation to improve its fit to available data. Typical peak-to-peak tide ranges on ice shelves are 1–2 m but can exceed 3 m for the Filchner–Ronne and Larsen Ice Shelves in the Weddell Sea. Spring tidal ranges are about twice these values. Model performance is judged relative to the ~5–10 cm accuracy that is needed to fully utilize ice-shelf height data that will be collected with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System, scheduled to be launched on the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite in late 2002. The model does not yet achieve this level of accuracy except very near the few high-quality tidal records that have been assimilated into the model. Some improvement in predictive skill is expected from increased sophistication of model physics, but we also require better definition of ice-shelf grounding lines and more accurate water-column thickness data in shelf seas and under the ice shelves. Long-duration tide measurements (bottom pressure gauge or global positioning system) in critical data-sparse areas, particularly near and on the Filchner–Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves and Pine Island Bay, are required to improve the performance of the data-assimilation model.

Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating

Disappearing faster around the edges The floating ice shelves around Antarctica, which buttress ice streams from the continent and slow their discharge into the sea, are thinning at faster rates. Paolo et al. present satellite data showing that ice shelves in many regions around the edge of the continent are losing mass. This result increases concern about how fast sea level might rise as climate continues to warm. If warming continues to cause ice shelves to thin, as they have for the past couple of decades, their disappearance may allow land-based ice to collapse and melt. Science, this issue p. 327 Ice shelves around much of Antarctica have been thinning over the past two decades. The floating ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic Ice Sheet restrain the grounded ice-sheet flow. Thinning of an ice shelf reduces this effect, leading to an increase in ice discharge to the ocean. Using 18 years of continuous satellite radar altimeter observations, we have computed decadal-scale changes in ice-shelf thickness around the Antarctic continent. Overall, average ice-shelf volume change accelerated from negligible loss at 25 ± 64 cubic kilometers per year for 1994–2003 to rapid loss of 310 ± 74 cubic kilometers per year for 2003–2012. West Antarctic losses increased by ~70% in the past decade, and earlier volume gain by East Antarctic ice shelves ceased. In the Amundsen and Bellingshausen regions, some ice shelves have lost up to 18% of their thickness in less than two decades.

The ICESat-2 Laser Altimetry Mission

Satellite and aircraft observations have revealed that remarkable changes in the Earths polar ice cover have occurred in the last decade. The impacts of these changes, which include dramatic ice loss from ice sheets and rapid declines in Arctic sea ice, could be quite large in terms of sea level rise and global climate. NASAs Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2), currently planned for launch in 2015, is specifically intended to quantify the amount of change in ice sheets and sea ice and provide key insights into their behavior. It will achieve these objectives through the use of precise laser measurements of surface elevation, building on the groundbreaking capabilities of its predecessor, the Ice Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). In particular, ICESat-2 will measure the temporal and spatial character of ice sheet elevation change to enable assessment of ice sheet mass balance and examination of the underlying mechanisms that control it. The precision of ICESat-2s elevation measurement will also allow for accurate measurements of sea ice freeboard height, from which sea ice thickness and its temporal changes can be estimated. ICESat-2 will provide important information on other components of the Earth System as well, most notably large-scale vegetation biomass estimates through the measurement of vegetation canopy height. When combined with the original ICESat observations, ICESat-2 will provide ice change measurements across more than a 15-year time span. Its significantly improved laser system will also provide observations with much greater spatial resolution, temporal resolution, and accuracy than has ever been possible before.

Distribution of marine ice beneath the Amery Ice Shelf

We present a map of the marine ice accreted to the base of the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS), East Antarctica. This map is obtained by converting a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the AIS generated from satellite radar altimeter data to an ice thickness map, assuming hydrostatic equilibrium, and subtracting from that a second ice thickness map, derived from airborne radio-echo sounding (RES) measurements. The RES signal does not penetrate the marine ice, so the measurement is only to the meteoric-marine ice boundary, and therefore the difference between the two maps is the marine ice thickness. The marine ice is up to 190 m thick and accounts for about 9% of the shelf volume. It is concentrated in the northwest of the shelf, a result of the clockwise ocean circulation in the cavity below.

Mapping the grounding zone of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using ICESat laser altimetry

Abstract We use laser altimetry from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) to map the grounding zone (GZ) of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, at 491 locations where ICESat tracks cross the grounding line (GL). Ice flexure in the GZ occurs as the ice shelf responds to short-term sea-level changes due primarily to tides. ICESat repeat-track analysis can be used to detect this region of flexure since each repeated pass is acquired at a different tidal phase; the technique provides estimates for both the landward limit of flexure and the point where the ice becomes hydrostatically balanced. We find that the ICESat-derived landward limits of tidal flexure are, in many places, offset by several km (and up to ∼60km) from the GL mapped previously using other satellite methods. We discuss the reasons why different mapping methods lead to different GL estimates, including: instrument limitations; variability in the surface topographic structure of the GZ; and the presence of ice plains. We conclude that reliable and accurate mapping of the GL is most likely to be achieved when based on synthesis of several satellite datasets.

Mapping the grounding zone of the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica using InSAR, MODIS and ICESat

Abstract We use a combination of satellite techniques (interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), visible-band imagery, and repeat-track laser altimetry) to develop a benchmark map for the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS) grounding zone (GZ), including its islands and ice rises. The break-in-slope, as an indirect estimate of grounding line location, was mapped for the entire AIS. We have also mapped ∼55% of the landward edge and ∼30% of the seaward edge of the ice shelf flexure boundary for the AIS perimeter. Vertical ice motion from Global Positioning System receivers confirms the location of the satellite-derived GZ in two regions. Our map redefines the extent of floating ice in the south-western AIS and identifies several previously unmapped grounded regions, improving our understanding of the stresses supporting the current dynamical state of the ice shelf. Finally, we identify three along-flow channels in the ice shelf basal topography, approximately 10 km apart, 1.5 km wide and 300–500 m deep, near the southern GZ. These channels, which form at the suture zones between ice streams, may represent zones of potential weakness in the ice shelf and may influence sub-ice-shelf ocean circulation.

Properties of a marine ice layer under the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica

The Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, undergoes high basal melt rates near the southern limit of its grounding line where 80% of the ice melts within 240 km of becoming afloat. A considerable portion of this later refreezes downstream as marine ice. This produces a marine ice layer up to 200 m thick in the northwest sector of the ice shelf concentrated in a pair of longitudinal bands that extend some 200 km all the way to the calving front. We drilled through the eastern marine ice band at two locations 70 km apart on the same flowline. We determine an average accretion rate of marine ice of 1.1 � 0.2 m a -1 , at a reference density of 920 kg m -3 between borehole sites, and infer a similar average rate of 1.3 � 0.2 m a -1 upstream. The deeper marine ice was permeable enough that a hydraulic connection was made whilst the drill was still 70-100 m above the ice-shelf base. Below this marine close-off depth, borehole video imagery showed permeable ice with water-filled cavities and individual ice platelets fused together, while the upper marine ice was impermeable with small brine-cell inclusions. We infer that the uppermost portion of the permeable ice becomes impermeable with the passage of time and as more marine ice is accreted on the base of the shelf. We estimate an average closure rate of 0.3 m a -1 between the borehole sites; upstream the average closure rate is faster at 0.9 m a -1 . We estimate an average porosity of the total marine ice layer of 14-20%, such that the deeper ice must have even higher values. High permeability implies that sea water can move relatively freely through the material, and we propose that where such marine ice exists this renders deep parts of the ice shelf particularly vulnerable to changes in ocean properties.

Ice sheet mass balance and sea level

Abstract Determining the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS) has long been a major challenge for polar science. But until recent advances in measurement technology, the uncertainty in ice sheet mass balance estimates was greater than any net contribution to sea level change. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4) was able, for the first time, to conclude that, taken together, the GIS and AIS have probably been contributing to sea level rise over the period 1993–2003 at an average rate estimated at 0.4 mm yr-1. Since the cut-off date for work included in AR4, a number of further studies of the mass balance of GIS and AIS have been made using satellite altimetry, satellite gravity measurements and estimates of mass influx and discharge using a variety of techniques. Overall, these studies reinforce the conclusion that the ice sheets are contributing to present sea level rise, and suggest that the rate of loss from GIS has recently increased. The largest unknown in the projections of sea level rise over the next century is the potential for rapid dynamic collapse of ice sheets.