Hermanto Siregar

Oil Palm Expansion among Smallholder Farmers in Sumatra, Indonesia

Many tropical regions experience a rapid expansion of oil palm, causing massive land use changes and raising serious environmental and social concerns. Indonesia has recently become the largest palm oil producer worldwide. While much of the production in Indonesia comes from large-scale plantations, independently operating smallholders are increasing in importance and may dominate production in the future. In order to control the process of land use change, the micro level factors influencing smallholder decisions need to be better understood. We use data from a survey of farm households in Sumatra and a duration model to analyze the patterns and dynamics of oil palm adoption among smallholders. In addition to farm and household characteristics, village level factors determine oil palm adoption significantly. Independent smallholders adopt oil palm especially in those villages that also have contracts and out-grower schemes, leading to a regional path-dependency of former government policies.

WERE AGGREGATE DEMAND SHOCKS IMPORTANT IN EXPLAINING INDONESIAN MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

This paper assesses the importance of aggregate demand shocks in the Indonesian macroeconomy using a variant of the Mundell-Fleming model analysed with the structural VAR methodology. Short-run relations are identified with contemporaneous restrictions, whereas long-run relations are embedded in a long-run money demand equation and a policy reaction function. Estimation results are generally plausible and consistent with small open economy theory. Results from the model provide empirical evidence on the relative importance of aggregate demand shocks over aggregate supply shocks in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. The implication of this finding on monetary and fiscal policies is formulated.

Impact of a Lower Oil Subsidy on Indonesian Macroeconomic Performance, Agricultural Sector and Poverty Incidences: A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Budget deficit, exchange rate fluctuation and high fuel world price provides a pressure on budget capacity to stimulate the Indonesian economy. The government has designed several fiscal policies, including reducing the fuel subsidy. The study objective is to analyse the impact of reducing fuel subsidy on macroeconomic variables, agricultural sector, and income distribution. The modification on the basic model, which is a recursive-dynamic CGE model, is made in this study. The data used in the model is of the Indonesian I-O Table 2000, The Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix 2000, National Household Survey data and parameter from some other sources. The results show that the reduction in fuel price subsidy tends to increase prices of industrial outputs that highly depend on fuel, such as transportation and fishery sectors. In contrast, the change in fuel price does not influence the price of paddy. Wage of skilled labor, land rent, and capital rent decline steadily in response to the change in fuel price. Households will lose their income following the reduction in fuel subsidy, which then decreases the welfare of households. Incomes are not evenly distributed within the society (household groups). An increased fuel price at consumer level declines the Indonesian real GDP. The government should give the compensation of reducing the fuel subsidy directly to the poor people. The compensation can also be given directly to the poor people through the development of infrastructure, which may solve some supply side bottlenecks in the economy.

The Development and Prospect of Indonesian Palm Oil Industry and Its Derivative Products

In 2013, the world palm oil production reached 55.7 million tons. Indonesia and Malaysia shared 85% of it with their production of 26.70 and 21.70 million tons, respectively. The aims of this study were to identify and analyze the development and prospect of Indonesian palm oil industry and its derivative products. Data were analyzed by using a descriptive approach. The area of oil palm plantation increased to 9,074,621 ha in 2012. Indonesia’s palm oil production in 2012 was 23.5 million tons. There was also an increased Indonesia’s palm oil export to 18.15 million tons in 2012. In 2010, the installed capacity of cooking oil industry in Indonesia was 15.4 million tons. For fatty alcohol industry, the installed capacity was 320,000 tons/year. In 2007, with real production of 300,000 tons, the 100% real capacity was almost reached. The installed capacities of biodiesel and glycerin industries in 2011 were 3.4 million kiloliters/year and 142,700 ton/year, respectively. In 2010, glycerin production was about 204,394 tons. Glycerin production was 121,640 kiloliters from fatty acid and fatty alcohol industries and 61,694 kiloliters from biodiesel industry.

Finding Size Factor and Value Factor in Indonesia Stock Exchange

This study conducted by gathering data from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) with 2 specifics model, Capital Market Pricing Model (CAPM) and Fama French 3 Factors Model (FF3FM). These model was estimated by classify 557 stocks in Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) to 6 classes: S/L class is class with small size and low Book to Equity (BE) to Market Equity (ME), S/M class is class with small size and medium in BE/ME, S/H class is class with small size and high in BE/ME, otherwise B/L class is class with big size and low in BE/ME, B/M class is class with big size and medium in BE/ME, B/H class is class with big size and high in BE/ME. With F test, t test and classic assumption test, best class and best model were B/L class and FF3FM. The result was confirmed size factor and value factor in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Size factor are confirmed in 3 classes (S/M, S/H and B/L), and value factor are confirmed in 4 classes (S/M, S/H, B/L and B/H). Therefore, classes with size and value factor are S/M, S/H and B/L. With BE/ME is 1/PBV and PBV indicating the stock price relative to its book value, so in Indonesia Stock Exchange the size factor and value factor confirmed in market with small market capitalization with low to medium in stock price relative to its book value and market with big market capitalization with high stock price relative to its book value.

Struggle for Resources Water: Analysis Conflict and Politics of Spatial Planning

ABSTRACT Implementation of local government regulation on spatial planning in Pandeglang Regency faced many obstacles, such as conflict between residents and companies in the Village Cadasari, Pandeglang Regency. The purpose of this research is to identify struggle for resources and the involved parties as well as to analyze the failure factors of Pandeglang Local Government to implement the spatial policy. This study used a qualitative descriptive approach. The results of the study illustrated that there were conflicts between company’s pros and cons. company’ cons, led by kiyai (Islamic priest), were citizens and students whom negatively affected by the establishment of company that caused difficulties of water resources access for daily needs and irrigation. On the other hand, company’s pros were Cadasari and Sukaindah village apparatus and some residents who wished to get benefit from increased employment opportunities supported by the Government of Pandeglang. The conflict was caused by the Local Government of Pandeglang who didn’t act as regulator and conflict resolution mediator but defended the existence of company while ignored the spatial planning. This proved that spatial policy is not only about technical aspect but also political one. Keywords: Politic of spatial planning, conflict, local government, resources ABSTRAK Implementasi Perda RTRW Kabupaten Pandeglang menghadapi banyak kendala, diantaranya konflik antara warga dengan perusahaan di Desa Cadasari Kabupaten Pandeglang. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi konflik perebutan sumber daya air, pihak terkait dan alternatif solusinya serta menganalisis faktor penyebab kegagalan Pemda Pandeglang dalam melaksanakan kebijakan tata ruang. Penelitian ini dianalisis dengan pendekatan deskriptif kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menggambarkan konflik terjadi antara pihak yang setuju pendirian perusahaan dan yang kontra. Pihak yang kontra perusahaan adalah warga, santri, dan kiyai yang mendapat efek negatif pendirian perusahaan berupa kesulitan akses sumber daya air dan irigasi sawah. Pihak yang pro perusahaan adalah aparatur Desa Cadasari, sebagian warga yang berharap memperoleh manfaat peluang kerja serta Pemda Pandeglang. Konflik tersebut disebabkan Pemda Pandeglang tidak menjadi regulator dan mediator penyelesaian konflik tapi cenderung memihak perusahaan dengan mengabaikan RTRW. Hal tersebut menunjukkan kebijakan tata ruang adalah political aspect bukan technical aspect. Kata kunci: Politik tata ruang, konflik, Pemda Pandeglang, sumberdaya

Analisis Arus Kas Terkait Kebijakan Uang Kuliah Tunggal di Perguruan Tinggi Negeri Badan Hukum

The aims of the research were to analyze cash flow and compare tuition income in a State University with Legal Entity of “XYZ” for its first year TPB students (the First Common Year) and of the first year until the fourth year before and after implementation of the single tuition fee system and formulate the management policies for the tuition income after the single tuition fee system. Analysis of cash flows consisted of cash ratio, quick ratio and current ratio. Paired t-test was used to analyze differences between single tuition fee income and non single tuition fee income. Based on the cash flow analysis, it is found that the University of “XYZ” has a liquid financial condition. The significant difference is, moreover, detected from the paired t-test analysis between single and non single tuition fee of total income from the first year student tuition. However, there is no difference detected when the analysis was conducted for total income from all four year tuitions. Management policies tuition income after the single tuition fee system payment delays should be minimized so that tuition fee funds can be completely collected. The allocation of fees to the faculty/department was originally based on the BPMP, and BPMK uses a tariff system so that cost per subject does not necessarily correspond with the needs. This is not in accordance with the single tuition fee system that is based on the unit cost. This means that the cost of the course is based on real needs, not based on the rates set. Keywords: cash flow analysis, state university with legal entity, single tuition fee ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis arus kas, mengkaji perbedaan penerimaan SPP S1 Reguler satu tahun pertama bagi mahasiswa TPB dan tahun pertama sampai tahun ke empat sebelum dan sesudah kebijakan UKT di PTN Badan Hukum “XYZ. Selanjutnmya, merumuskan kebijakan pengelolaan SPP S1 reguler sesudah UKT. Analisis arus kas terdiri dari rasio kas, rasio cepat, dan rasio lancar. Analisis perbedaan penerimaan SPP S1 sebelum dan sesudah kebijakan UKT menggunakan uji t sampel berpasangan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan analisis rasio arus kas PTN Badan Hukum “XYZ” memiliki rasio kas yang likuid. Hasil analisis uji t sampel berpasangan menunjukkan bahwa total penerimaan SPP S1 satu tahun pertama (TPB) sebelum dan sesudah UKT berbeda nyata sedangkan total penerimaan SPP S1 dari tahun pertama hingga tahun ke empat sebelum dan sesudah UKT tidak berbeda nyata. Kebijakan pengelolaan SPP S1 reguler sesudah UKT sebaiknya penundaan pembayaran SPP diminimalisir agar dana SPP dapat terkumpul seutuhnya. Alokasi SPP ke fakultas/departemen semula berdasarkan BPMP dan BPMK menggunakan sistem tarif, sehingga biaya per mata kuliah belum tentu sesuai dengan kebutuhan. Hal ini tidak sesuai dengan sistem UKT yang didasarkan pada unit cost. Artinya, biaya mata kuliah didasarkan kepada kebutuhan riilnya, bukan berdasarkan tarif yang ditetapkan. Kata kunci: analisis arus kas, perguruan tinggi negeri badan hukum, uang kuliah tunggal

ANALISIS SPASIAL KELEMBAGAAN PETANI DAN KEMISKINAN PETANI TANAMAN PANGAN MENGGUNAKAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION DI PROVINSI JAMBI

ABSTRAK Empat puluh persen (40%) masyarakat Indonesia yang terlibat dalam pertanian masih hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan. Berbagai upaya-upaya yang dilakukan pemerintah untuk mengurangi tingginya jumlah petani miskin belum mampu menurunkan kemiskinan petani secara berarti. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah menganalisis pengaruh kegiatan pertanian, fasilitas fisik pertanian dan akses kelembagaan petani terhadap pengurangan kemiskinan petani tanaman pangan di Provinsi Jambi. Provinsi Jambi dipilih sebagai lokasi penelitian karena wilayah ini memiliki kemiskinan di pedesaan yang tinggi dan Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) yang paling rendah di Indonesia. Pendekatan spasial metode Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) dipilih sebagai pendekatan alternatif dalam analisis kemiskinan petani karena dapat mempertimbangkan adanya keragaman karakteristik kemiskinan dan penyebab kemiskinan yang berbeda di masing-masing wilayah. Hasil yang diperoleh dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa banyaknya desa dengan jaringan jalan beton/aspal berpengaruh signifikan dalam menurunkan kemiskinan petani tanaman pangan di beberapa kecamatan Kabupaten Kerinci, satu kecamatan di Kabupaten Merangin dan seluruh kecamatan di Kabupaten Sungai Penuh. Semakin besar persentase desa yang melakukan kegiatan pemberdayaan dana bergulir/simpan pinjam untuk modal usaha pertanian selama tiga tahun terakhir di Kabupaten Sungai Penuh dan beberapa kecamatan di Kabupaten Kerinci akan menurunkan jumlah kemiskinan petani tanaman pangan di wilayah tersebut. Keberadaan fasilitas irigasi dan kegiatan pertanian tidak ada yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penurunan kemiskinan petani tanaman pangan. Kata kunci : kemiskinan, petani tanaman pangan, analisis spasial, Geographically Weighted Regression ABSTRACT Forty percent (40%) of Indonesian people in agriculture sectors are still living under the poverty line. The government policies have been implemented to reduce poor farmers but it’s not significant. The purpose of this study is to describe the spatial pattern of agricultural activity, the agricultural facilities and farmers access to the farm institution and to analyze its impact on poverty reduction in food crop farmers in Jambi Province. Jambi Province is selected because have high number of poverty in rural area and the lowest Farmer’s Term of Trade Indices (NTP) in Indonesia. Spatial approach Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to analyze the factors influencing the poverty among food crops famers and consider the diversity of the characteristics of poverty and a cause of poverty is different in each region. The result of this study are rural area with asphaltroads was significantly influence reducing poverty food crop farmers in several districts Kerinci, districts Merangin and districts Sungai Penuh. Rural area with empowerment activities by revolving fund for agriculture also significantly influence reducing poverty food crop farmers in the district Sungai Penuh and district Kerinci in the last three years. The irrigation facilities and agricultural activities not significant reduce farmers crops poverty. Keywords : poverty, food crop farmer, spatial analysis, Geographically Weighted Regression

Development Model of Renewable Energy Policy for Sustainable Bio-Pellet Industry in Indonesia Using Interpretive Structural Method

New and renewable energy development should be encouraged because Indonesia is net importer of oil. Government subsidy for transportation and electricity is more than Rp 300 trillion per year. Presidential Decree No. 5, 2006, mandates that energy-mix target by 2025 will be 17 % for new and renewable energy. The demand growth of energy is about 7 %, compared to developing countries with only 2–3 %. This study aims to develop renewable energy policy models concerning biomass for rural electrification; to identify the factors that influence price of feed-in tariff (FIT) determination, in particular wood-based biomass; and to design the role of social forest as raw materials for bio-pellet industry in sustainable supply chain. Research method using soft systems methodology (SSM) is the application of interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and strategic assumption surfacing and testing (SAST). The results showed that the key elements of development policy model are feasible biomass energy tariff, competent human resources, coordination among related local government offices, and community participation. Other important factors are funds and investments for business, microfinance, state-owned forest lands, and smallholder plantations policy one spatial regions plan institutions. The strategic assumptions have been identified, which are sufficient supply of raw materials to industry, availability of alternative potential industrial biomass raw materials in the local areas, the obvious trade system to accelerate the model implementations that requires regulatory support from local governments, inventory land use and forest area inventory, and support of community leaders.

DAMPAK TRANSFER PEMERINTAH PUSAT TERHADAP PENURUNAN KETIMPANGAN PENDAPATAN DI INDONESIA

Pemerintah Pusat berdasarkan UU No 33/2004 memberikan dana transfer kepada pemerintah daerah. Dana transfer pusat tersebut digunakan sebagai perimbangan keuangan daerah. Dana transfer yang diberikan pemerintah seperti Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU), Dana Alokasi Khusus (DAK) yang difungsikan sebagai stimulus fiskal bagi daerah. Dana transfer pusat diharapkan akan memberikan peningkatan pembangunan bagi daerah. Namun dana transfer pusat tersebut belum memberikan penurunan ketimpangan pendapatan antar daerah. Dana transfer pusat ini setidaknya dapat menutupi kebutuhan daerah. Ketimpangan pendapatan setiap daerah akan terjadi tetapi pemerintah akan memikirkan bagaimana ketimpangan pendapatan daerah dapat diturunkan. DAU merupakan salah satu hibah dari pemerintah pusat untuk menurunkan ketimpangan pendapatan antar daerah. Adanya aturan hold-harmless menjadikan pemberian DAU minimum sama dengan tahun lalu yang mengakibatkan fungsi DAU tidak berjalan. Fungsi DAU yaitu daerah yang kapasitas fiskal rendah akan diberikan DAU relatif besar. Dengan diberlakukan hold harmless membuat fungsi DAU tidak terjadi. Aturan hold harmless sudah tidak digunakan lagi setelah tahun 2009. Dalam penelitian ini mencoba untuk melihat faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ketimpangan pendapatan di Indonesia melalui instrumen fiskal seperti DAU dan DAK. Periode penelitian tahun 2001-2010 menggunakan regresi panel data. Hasil yang estimasi yang didapat yaitu DAU, DAK, infrastruktur jalan, aturan hold harmless dan jumlah penduduk mempengaruhi signifikan terhadap ketimpangan pendapatan. Selain melihat hasil estimasi dari persamaan ketimpangan pendapatan, penelitian ini akan melihat perkembangan ketimpangan pendapatan provinsi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan indeks Williamson. Hasil yang didapat ketimpangan pada daerah miskin lebih merata dibandingkan daerah kaya. Penentuan daerah kaya dan daerah miskin menggunakan median PDRB perkapita.