Bonar M. Sinaga

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN DAN MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP EFEKTIVITAS PENERIMAAN PAJAK DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

. The purpose of this research is to analyse the impact of policy and macroeconomic change on tax revenue and its effectiveness in Consumer Goods Industry sector (CGI) and Infrastructure, Utilities and Transport (IUT) sector. The analysis employed simultaneous equation system model estimated with 2SLS and simulation with Seidel method. Data was collected from annual report of the companies which listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results showed that the change of tax receipts and effective tax rate (ETR) happened due to changing in policy and macroeconomics in the CGI sector which is greater than the IUT sector. Furthermore, if the rupiah exchange rate depreciates, the policy regarding tax rate increment could increase tax revenue and ETR which is greater than the BI rate reduction policy in both sectors.

The Impact of Rice Policy on Rice Market and The Welfare of Rice Producers and Consumers in Indonesia

Rice demand in Indonesia increases every year so it makes the big gap between production and consumption of rice. Excess demand is covered by rice import which causes domestic rice price responds the global rice price movements that harm both producers and consumers. So, the policy instruments that could reduce dependence on rice import and can provide benefits to producers and consumers of rice is very needed. The objectives of this study were to analyze the impact of rice policy on rice market and the welfare of rice producers and consumers. This study uses annual time series data and simultaneous equations model with two stages least squares method. The analysis showed that rice policy changes can influence condition of Indonesia’s rice market and that the increase in Government Purchase Price (HPP), agricultural credit, and fertilizer subsidy can improve the welfare of the producers and consumers.

Dampak Kebijakan Perberasan pada Pasar Beras dan Kesejahteraan Produsen dan Konsumen Beras di Indonesia

Rice demand in Indonesia increases every year so it makes the big gap between production and consumption of rice. Excess demand is covered by rice import which causes domestic rice price responds the global rice price movements that harm both producers and consumers. So, the policy instruments that could reduce dependence on rice import and can provide benefits to producers and consumers of rice is very needed. The objectives of this study were to analyze the impact of rice policy on rice market and the welfare of rice producers and consumers. This study uses annual time series data and simultaneous equations model with two stages least squares method. The analysis showed that rice policy changes can influence condition of Indonesia’s rice market and that the increase in Government Purchase Price (HPP), agricultural credit, and fertilizer subsidy can improve the welfare of the producers and consumers.

Dampak Kebijakan Input, Output, dan Perdagangan Beras terhadap Diversifikasi Pangan Pokok

EnglishAs one of the five most populous countries in the world, Indonesia has a big challenge to meet the food needs of its people. Food diversification has long been an important agenda of the national agricultural development planning program, but the achievement, however, remains disappointing. This paper aims to analyze the impacts of rice input, output and trade policy on diversification of major staple food consumption and production. This study analyzes four main staple foods, i.e. rice, maize, cassava, and wheat using national series data for the period of 1981-2013. The System of Simultaneous Equations Model consisting of 22 structural equations and 31 identity equations were estimated using a Two-Stage Least Square method. The results show that single policy instrument of reducing fertilizer and seed subsidies and increasing the government purchasing price policy increase diversification of food consumption and production. Increasing rice import tariff is not effective to improve either consumption nor production diversification, but rice import ban could improve consumption diversification. Increasing the government purchasing price is not quite effective as the compensation for the fertilizer subsidy reduction. The fertilizer subsidy reduction policy should be conducted gradually. Seed subsidy reduction combined with rice import ban is considered as an alternative to the existing policy. IndonesianSebagai salah satu dari lima negara dengan penduduk terbesar di dunia, Indonesia mempunyai tantangan cukup besar dalam pemenuhan konsumsi pangan penduduknya. Diversifikasi pangan sudah lama menjadi salah satu agenda penting dalam program nasional pembangunan pertaniani namun pencapaiannya masih jauh dari yang diharapkan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan input, output, dan perdagangan beras terhadap diversifikasi produksi dan konsumsi pangan pokok yaitu, beras, jagung, ubi kayu, dan terigu, untuk data tingkat nasional tahun 1981–2013. Penelitian ini menggunakan model persamaan simultan, terdiri atas 22 persamaan struktural dan 31 persamaan identitas yang diestimasi dengan metode Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan tunggal baik pengurangan subsidi pupuk dan benih, maupun kebijakan menaikkan Harga Pembelian Pemerintah mampu meningkatkan diversifikasi produksi dan konsumsi pangan pokok. Kebijakan tarif impor beras tidak efektif untuk meningkatkan diversifikasi konsumsi dan produksi pangan pokok, tetapi kebijakan pelarangan impor dapat meningkatkan diversifikasi konsumsi pangan. Kebijakan peningkatan harga pembelian pemerintah terbukti kurang efektif sebagai kompensasi pengurangan subsidi pupuk. Kebijakan pengurangan subsidi pupuk harus diterapkan secara bertahap. Pengurangan subsidi benih yang disertai dengan pelarangan impor dapat menjadi kebijakan alternatif saat ini.

Dampak Peningkatan Bagi Hasil Pajak dan Belanja Sektor Riil Terhadap Penurunan Kemiskinan Pertanian di Indonesia

English Fiscal decentralization policy in Indonesia, i.e. high composition of General Allocation Fund (DAU) on local financial structure and low tax revenue sharing successfully accelerates national economic growth but poverty reduction is slower and poor people proportion in the agricultural sector increases. Objective of this study is to analyze impacts of increased tax revenue sharing and local government expenditures in the real sector on regional economy and poverty that benefit agricultural poor people and reduce dependency on DAU. This study employs an econometric approach using a simultaneous equation system throughout 23 provinces during the period of 2005-2011 and a Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimation method. An impact analysis is performed using policy simulations for the period of 2009-2011. Findings of this study are: (1) tax revenue sharing is significantly positive influenced by non-agricultural Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) as a proxy of individual income taxes (VAT) as well as province area as a proxy of tax on land and building (PBB) and duty on the acquisition of land and building right (BPHTB), while DAU is significantly negative influenced by GDRP and significantly positive influenced by number of local civil servants; (2) changes in fiscal capacity is responded more by agricultural and infrastructure expenditures, while change in DAU is responded more by industrial and trade spending; (3) the poverty rate (headcount index) is negative significantly influenced by per capita expenditure and positive significantly influenced by the Gini Index of each sector; and (4) policy on increasing local financial income from tax revenue sharing allocated more for agricultural and industrial expenditures accelerates agricultural poverty reduction expected to reduce national poverty. Indonesian Implementasi desentralisasi fiskal dimana komposisi Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU) pada total pendapatan daerah relatif tinggi, sementara komposisi bagi hasil pajak rendah telah mempercepat laju pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional, tetapi laju penurunan kemiskinan melambat bahkan proporsi penduduk miskin pertanian meningkat. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak peningkatan bagi hasil pajak dan belanja sektor riil terhadap perekonomian dan kemiskinan sektoral daerah yang memihak penduduk miskin pertanian serta mengurangi ketergantungan keuangan daerah pada DAU. Analisis menggunakan pendekatan ekonometrik dengan membangun model sistem persamaan simultan dengan metode estimasi Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) untuk data di 23 provinsi tahun 2005-2011, sementara analisis dampak dengan simulasi kebijakan periode historis tahun 2009-2011. Beberapa temuan penting yaitu: (1) penerimaan bagi hasil pajak secara signifikan positif dipengaruhi PDRB nonpertanian sebagai proksi pajak-pajak penghasilan (PPh) dan luas wilayah sebagai proksi Pajak Bumi dan Bangunan (PBB) dan Bea Perolehan Hak atas Tanah dan Bangunan (BPHTB), sedangkan penerimaan DAU secara signifikan negatif dipengaruhi PDRB dan secara signifikan positif dipengaruhi jumlah PNS daerah; (2) perubahan kapasitas fiskal direspon lebih besar oleh belanja pertanian dan infrastruktur, sedangkan perubahan DAU direspon lebih besar oleh belanja perindustrian dan perdagangan; (3) tingkat kemiskinan sektoral (headcount index) secara signifikan negatif dipengaruhi pengeluaran per kapita dan secara signifikan positif dipengaruhi Indeks Gini masing-masing sektor; dan (4) kebijakan peningkatan bagi hasil pajak yang dialokasikan lebih besar untuk belanja pertanian dan perindustrian berdampak menurunkan tingkat kemiskinan penduduk pertanian lebih besar sehingga dapat mempercepat laju penurunan kemiskinan nasional.

The Impacts of Regional Governments' Expenditures on the Agricultural Sector and Economic Performance in Indonesia

The amount and composition of government expenditure in fiscal operations has a significant impact on aggregate demand and national output and affects resource allocationin an economy. Therefore, in order to achieve effective economic development, regional government spending has to be allocated appropriately according to the potentials of each area. The purpose of the study is to examine the impacts of regional government spending on investment, employment, economic growth, and poverty in the areas where the contribution of the agricultural sector to GRDP is high and low. This Study utilizes an econometric model of simultaneous equations system using panel data of 20 provinces in Indonesia for the period of 2003-2011. Several simulations (counter-factual experiments) were conducted. The 20 sampled provinces were classified into two groups based on the contribution of agricultural sector to the respective regional economy. In provinces where the agricultural sector is dominant, an increase in government spending on agriculture-- subject to a constant total government expenditure--increases the total investment, total employment, the total GRDP, and decreases poverty rate. On the other hand, in provinces where agriculture is not dominant, it decreases the total investment.

China-ASEAN Free Trade: Complementary or Competition

Indonesia and ASEAN countries generally have relatively the same resource, mainly as a fellow producer of agricultural products. Joining Chinainto the regional economic integration through theagreement China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA), giving new opportunities and challenges for them. The opportunities come from the openingof the large market of China whose many products are relatively different. But it is also a challenge because of the pressure of competition. Competition pressures come not only because of the influx of cheaper Chinese products, but also competition among ASEAN countries due to the similarity of their products. For example, Indonesia and Malaysia are the two largest palm oil exporters in the world, and Thailand (with Indonesia) is the worlds major exporters of natural rubber. This paper aims to examine the trend of complementarity and similarity CAFTA countries and the correlation to exports trend. By using annual time series data 1995-2010, the analysis is based on the two main indicators; complementarity and export similarity index.