Himanshu Grover

Vulnerability and Capacity: Explaining Local Commitment to Climate-Change Policy

We examine the reasons why a US locality would voluntarily commit to the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign. Using geographic information systems analytic techniques, we map and measure a localitys vulnerability to climate-change impacts at the county level of spatial precision. We analyze multiple measures of climate-change vulnerability, including expected temperature change, extreme weather events, and coastal proximity, as well as economic variables, demographic variables, and civic-participation variables that constitute a localitys socioeconomic capacity to commit to costly climate-change policy initiatives. Bivariate and logistic regression results indicate that CCP-committed localities are quantitatively different to noncommitted localities on both climate-change risk and socioeconomic-capacity dimensions. On vulnerability measures, the odds of CCP-campaign participation increase significantly with the number of people killed and injured by extreme weather events, projected temperature change, and coastal proximity. On socioeconomic-capacity measures, the odds of CCP-campaign involvement increase with the percentage of citizens that vote Democrat and recycle, as well as the number of nonprofit organizations with an environment focus. The odds decrease in a county area as the percentage of the labor force employed in carbon-intensive industries increases.

Risk, Stress, and Capacity: Explaining Metropolitan Commitment to Climate Protection

Climate change and mitigation policies adopted by a locality indelibly impact urban form, landscape, and economy. The Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) has become a dominant movement organizing the localities to proactively address climate change. This study examines metropolitan area commitment to the CCP. Geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical techniques are used to analyze metros on dimensions of climate change risk, stress, and civic capacity. “Climate change risk” measures a metro areas coastal proximity, ecosystem sensitivity, and susceptibility to extreme weather events. “Climate change stress” summarizes transportation, energy, and production practices that adversely affect climate systems. “Civic capacity” estimates human capital and environmental concern variables that constitute a metro areas ability to commit to policy initiatives. Statistical results indicate that high stressor areas are significantly less likely to participate in the CCP campaign, and metros high in civic capacity are significantly more likely to commit to the CCP campaign.

Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas

Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury.(2) Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997-2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations.

The Rising Costs of Floods: Examining the Impact of Planning and Development Decisions on Property Damage in Florida

Abstract The rising economic cost of floods in the United States cannot be explained solely by monetary inflation or growth in coastal populations. Damaging flood events are also influenced by the way society plans for and physically develops its communities, influencing where structures and impervious surfaces are concentrated and how hydrological systems are altered. We analyze 383 nonhurricane flood events in Florida counties between 1997 and 2001 to isolate how planning decisions and their effects on the built environment affect property damage caused by floods. Our results suggest that alteration of naturally occurring wetlands significantly increases the property damage caused by floods, all else equal. Also, nonstructural methods such as the Federal Emergency Management Agencys Community Rating System, while providing inexpensive means of reducing property damage directly, may also indirectly encourage more development in hazardous areas.

Identifying the impact of the built environment on flood damage in Texas

Floods continue to pose the greatest threat to the property and safety of human communities among all natural hazards in the United States. This study examines the relationship between the built environment and flood impacts in Texas, which consistently sustains the most damage from flooding of any other state in the country. Specifically, we calculate property damage resulting from 423 flood events between 1997 and 2001 at the county level. We identify the effect of several built environment measures, including wetland alteration, impervious surface, and dams on reported property damage while controlling for biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Statistical results suggest that naturally occurring wetlands play a particularly important role in mitigating flood damage. These findings provide guidance to planners and flood managers on how to alleviate most effectively the costly impacts of foods at the community level.

Mapping social vulnerability to enhance housing and neighborhood resilience

Social factors influence the ability of coastal communities and their populations to anticipate, respond, resist, and recover from disasters. Galveston, TX, offers aunique opportunity to test the efficacy of social vulnerability mapping to identify inequalities in the ways that different parts of the community may react to a disaster. We describe spatial patterns of social vulnerability prior to 2008s Hurricane Ike and compare them to outcomes related to response, impact, recovery resources, and early stages of the rebuilding. Households and neighborhoods identified using vulnerability mapping experienced negative outcomes: later evacuation, a greater degree of damage sustained, fewer private and public resources for recovery, and slower and lower volumes of repair and rebuilding activity. Findings support using community vulnerability mapping as a tool for emergency management, hazard mitigation, and disaster recovery planning, helping communities to reduce losses and enhance response and recovery, thereby strengthening community resilience and reducing inequalities.

Examining the willingness of Americans to alter behaviour to mitigate climate change

Despite the increasing interest in climate change policy in the US, little systematic research has been conducted on the willingness of individuals to change their behaviour to mitigate the problem. Understanding behavioural change is critical if federal and local governments intend to implement programmes requiring actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This understudied aspect of climate change policy is addressed by quantitatively examining the degree to which residents living in the US are willing to alter their behaviour to mitigate climate change impacts, and by identifying the major factors contributing to this willingness. Based on a national survey, the reported willingness of individuals to alter behaviours is explained, using the components of risk, individual stress, capacity and ecological values. The findings indicate that specific personal traits and contextual characteristics trigger a significantly greater willingness to change longstanding behavioural patterns. These insights into the factors motivating behavioural change can provide guidance to decision makers at both federal and local levels on how best to implement climate change policies.

Examining climate change mitigation and adaptation behaviours among public sector organisations in the USA

Climate change has become a more salient issue on the US policy agenda at all levels of government. Increasing empirical evidence and identification of its potential risks to human populations have increased media, public, and policy-maker interest. There is a gap, however, in our knowledge of sub-national decision-making which suggests several questions: Are community leaders deciding to take action in response to climate change action, and, if so, what is the solution focus – mitigation or adaptation? Our study addresses this gap in the literature by reporting the results of a national survey of local, regional, and state decision-makers whose organisations will be addressing community responses to the threat of climate change. We find that, in general, these agencies are not engaged in climate change policy, nor is the issue on their agendas. Among organisations considering policy responses, there is variation between types of agency and type of solution, mitigation versus adaptation.

Assessing the impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami on households: a modified domestic assets index approach

This paper offers a potential measurement solution for assessing disaster impacts and subsequent recovery at the household level by using a modified domestic assets index (MDAI) approach. Assessment of the utility of the domestic assets index first proposed by Bates, Killian and Peacock (1984) has been confined to earthquake areas in the Americas and southern Europe. This paper modifies and extends the approach to the Indian sub-continent and to coastal surge hazards utilizing data collected from 1,000 households impacted by the Indian Ocean tsunami (2004) in the Nagapattinam district of south-eastern India. The analyses suggest that the MDAI scale is a reliable and valid measure of household living conditions and is useful in assessing disaster impacts and tracking recovery efforts over time. It can facilitate longitudinal studies, encourage cross-cultural, cross-national comparisons of disaster impacts and inform national and international donors of the itemized monetary losses from disasters at the household level.

Planning for Community Resilience

This timely handbook brings together the fields of planning, disaster response, and hazards management to provide a field-tested process on how to make communities disaster-resilient. How can we plan and design stronger communities? Communities struck by natural disasters struggle to recover long after the first responders have left. Globally, the average annual number of natural disasters has more than doubled since 1980. These catastrophes are increasing in number as well as in magnitude, causing greater damage as we experience rising sea levels and other effects of climate change. Communities can reduce their vulnerability to disaster by becoming more resilient, to not only bounce back more readily from disasters but to grow stronger, more socially cohesive, and more environmentally responsible. To be truly resilient, disaster preparation and recovery must consider all populations in the community. By bringing together natural hazards planning and community planning to consider vulnerabilities, more resilient and equitable communities are achievable. In Planning for Community Resilience the authors describe an inclusive process for creating disaster-resilient communities. This handbook guides any community through the process of determining their level of hazard exposure, physical vulnerability, and social vulnerability with the goal of determining the best planning strategy. This will be an invaluable tool for professionals working to protect communities from disturbance.