Walter Gillis Peacock

Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas

Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury.(2) Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997-2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations.

Planning for Housing Recovery? Lessons Learned From Hurricane Andrew

Problem: Housing recovery is key to revitalizing communities following major natural disasters, and yet there is little empirical research on how housing recovery differs across neighborhoods with different sociodemographic characteristics, what happens to housing markets, or property abandonment after disasters. Purpose: We address these gaps by examining single-family housing recovery, housing sales, and property abandonment following Hurricane Andrew in south Miami-Dade County, FL. Methods: We developed panel models predicting single-family housing recovery to examine the effects of home and neighborhood characteristics and hurricane damage on recovery. We analyzed home sales and properties abandoned to assess the extent and duration of the hurricane impacts and conducted correlation analyses to identify neighborhood attributes associated with post-disaster home sales and abandonment. Results and conclusions: Housing recovery trajectories depended on neighborhood demographic, socioeconomic, and housing characteristics. Rental units and homes in low-income and minority neighborhoods recovered more slowly. Home sales increased significantly, with some properties selling multiple times within a short period especially in heavily damaged nonminority neighborhoods. Property abandonments increased dramatically, potentially creating cascading negative effects in affected neighborhoods. Takeaway for practice: Major natural disasters are likely to be followed by housing market volatility, high rates of property abandonment, and uneven housing recovery. To prevent long-lasting adverse effects, planners should focus on reducing housing turnover, retaining home ownership, and promoting reuse of abandoned properties. State and local governments should consider imposing emergency moratoria on foreclosures and insurance cancelations and providing incentives to encourage the rebuilding of low income and rental properties. Land-bank programs could dampen housing market volatility, and emergency property disposition programs and eminent domain processes could expedite reuse of abandoned properties. However, redevelopment should be consistent with long-term development, equity, and hazard mitigation goals. Research support: This research was supported by funding from the National Science Foundation directly (CMS 0100155) and through the Mid-American Earthquake Center (EEC-9701785). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation or the Mid-American Earthquake Center.

Sheltering and Housing Recovery Following Disaster

Reestablishing housing is a critical factor for understanding recovery processes, whether one is addressing the phenomenon at the household or community level. Researchers examining household or family recovery, for example, have utilized a variety of measures or indicators to capture different dimensions of recovery including psychological or perceptional measures related to stress, and sense of loss and recovery to more objective indicators such as regaining income, employment, household amenities, and household assets (Bates, 1982; Bolin, 1976, 1982, 1993, 1994; Bolin & Bolton, 1983; Bolin & Trainer, 1978; Peacock, Killian, & Bates, 1987). However, this research also suggests that fundamental to an overall assessment of household recovery is reestablishing permanent housing, or in the vernacular, home, because without establishing home, the ability of a household to carry out normal activities and reestablish a routine is limited and hampered (Bates & Peacock, 1987, 1993; Bolin & Trainer, 1978; Quarantelli, 1982). In short, delays in reestablishing housing all too often delay all other dimensions of recovery (Bolin, 1986).

Mapping social vulnerability to enhance housing and neighborhood resilience

Social factors influence the ability of coastal communities and their populations to anticipate, respond, resist, and recover from disasters. Galveston, TX, offers aunique opportunity to test the efficacy of social vulnerability mapping to identify inequalities in the ways that different parts of the community may react to a disaster. We describe spatial patterns of social vulnerability prior to 2008s Hurricane Ike and compare them to outcomes related to response, impact, recovery resources, and early stages of the rebuilding. Households and neighborhoods identified using vulnerability mapping experienced negative outcomes: later evacuation, a greater degree of damage sustained, fewer private and public resources for recovery, and slower and lower volumes of repair and rebuilding activity. Findings support using community vulnerability mapping as a tool for emergency management, hazard mitigation, and disaster recovery planning, helping communities to reduce losses and enhance response and recovery, thereby strengthening community resilience and reducing inequalities.

Inequities in Long-Term Housing Recovery After Disasters

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Disaster impacts result from interactions between hazard exposure, physical vulnerability, and social vulnerability. We report empirical work from 1992′s Hurricane Andrew in Miami-Dade (FL) and 2008′s Hurricane Ike in Galveston (TX) to assess long-term trends in housing recovery. Longitudinal, parcel-level data on housing units along with neighborhood sociodemographic data permit analysis of the pace of recovery for different neighborhoods, populations, and housing types. Housing recovery is highly uneven for different population groups. Unsurprisingly, damage has major consequences; even after four years, the effects of damage are evident in the rebuilding process. Social vulnerability factors play differently in different settings. In Miami, income and race and ethnicity were critical determinants of higher losses and slower recovery rates, while in Galveston income was the more critical factor, with housing in lower-income areas suffering more damage and lagging significantly in the recovery process. Takeaway for practice: Effective land use policy and building codes can reduce physical vulnerability and ultimately damage, thus enhancing resilience for all. Differentials in impact and recovery trajectories suggest that assessment and the monitoring of recovery is critical to target resources to areas that are lagging. Perhaps most important is having an effective plan in place that addresses housing recovery issues to help reduce long-term consequences. Pre-event planning for housing and social change can help support community vision and overcome inequities.

Florida Households’ Expected Responses to Hurricane Hazard Mitigation Incentives

This study tested a series of models predicting household expectations of participating in hurricane hazard mitigation incentive programs. Data from 599 households in Florida revealed that mitigation incentive adoption expectations were most strongly and consistently related to hazard intrusiveness and risk perception and, to a lesser extent, worry. Demographic and hazard exposure had indirect effects on mitigation incentive adoption expectations that were mediated by the psychological variables. The results also revealed differences in the factors affecting mitigation incentive adoption expectations for each of five specific incentive programs. Overall, the results suggest that hazard managers are more likely to increase participation in mitigation incentive programs if they provide messages that repeatedly (thus increasing hazard intrusiveness) remind people of the likelihood of severe negative consequences of hurricane impact (thus increasing risk perception).

Mitigation Planning Why Hazard Exposure, Structural Vulnerability, and Social Vulnerability Matter

Increasing interest in fostering resilient communities requires a more comprehensive approach to hazard mitigation planning that overcomes the limitations of traditional hazard assessments, notably the failure to explicitly incorporate an analysis of social vulnerability. We statistically analyzed a random sample of 1500 damage assessments of single-family homes collected following Hurricane Ike to assess the contributions of hazard exposure, structural vulnerability, and social vulnerability. The results indicate that hazard exposure, structural characteristics, and socioeconomic characteristics are significant predictors of structural damage. The implications suggest that comprehensive hazard assessments can provide additional insights for mitigation planning and community resiliency.

Living conditions, disasters, and development : an approach to cross-cultural comparisons

Because most environmental problems result from human intervention in the ecosystem, ecological research in the social sciences is now joining research in the biological and physical sciences as a means of addressing long-range problems. Within this type of social science research, this book claims, no problem is more important than the investigation of disaster. To assess the impact of sudden cataclysms on the living conditions of families or communities, scientists need a set of pretested, standardised measures that can be used cross-culturally. Once a disaster strikes, investigators are often faced with insufficient tools for assessing its impact and for evaluating whether aid programmes have enabled households to recover or improve their conditions. In this book, the authors introduce and describe a measure - the Domestic Assets Scale - that they have developed to deal with these research problems. They first present theoretical arguments that relate conditions to the concepts of disaster and development; they then show how the measure was constructed with the use of data collected in sample communities in Italy, Mexico, Peru, Turkey, the United States and Yugoslavia. Throughout these discussions, they emphasise the practical application of their theoretical arguments and address the research problems and constraints faced by investigators using the procedure. Finally, they assess the validity and reliability of the Domestic Assets Scale and show how it can be used to measure long-term change, especially in the wake of catastrophic events.

Examining the Influence of Development Patterns on Flood Damages along the Gulf of Mexico

The rising cost of floods is increasingly attributed to the pattern and form of the built environment. Our study empirically tests this notion by examining the relationship between development intensity and property damage caused by floods. We examine five years of insured flood loss claims across 144 counties and parishes fringing the Gulf of Mexico. Results indicate that clustered, high-intensity development patterns significantly reduce amounts of reported property damage, while increasing percentages of sprawling, low-intensity development involving recent conversion of open space greatly exacerbate flood losses. These findings demonstrate the importance of community development design in fostering flood-resilient communities.

Assessing the impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami on households: a modified domestic assets index approach

This paper offers a potential measurement solution for assessing disaster impacts and subsequent recovery at the household level by using a modified domestic assets index (MDAI) approach. Assessment of the utility of the domestic assets index first proposed by Bates, Killian and Peacock (1984) has been confined to earthquake areas in the Americas and southern Europe. This paper modifies and extends the approach to the Indian sub-continent and to coastal surge hazards utilizing data collected from 1,000 households impacted by the Indian Ocean tsunami (2004) in the Nagapattinam district of south-eastern India. The analyses suggest that the MDAI scale is a reliable and valid measure of household living conditions and is useful in assessing disaster impacts and tracking recovery efforts over time. It can facilitate longitudinal studies, encourage cross-cultural, cross-national comparisons of disaster impacts and inform national and international donors of the itemized monetary losses from disasters at the household level.