Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais

Estimativa de um modelo não linear para as exportações brasileiras de borracha no período 1992-2006

O objetivo deste artigo e aplicar o mecanismo de correcao de erros linear e nao linear para encontrar as elasticidades de resposta das exportacoes do setor de borracha a diversas variaveis. Duas importantes contribuicoes emergem desta pesquisa. A primeira e o uso da metodologia de mudanca de regime markoviano. A segunda esta relacionada aos resultados para o setor. Para a curva de oferta, nao e possivel afirmar a existencia do efeito J. Ha evidencia de assimetria de desempenho entre regimes de queda e crescimento da demanda por exportacoes, bem como entre a duracao desses estados. Isso pode estar refletindo a influencia das elasticidades de curto prazo, em especial no caso da renda e dos precos. De forma geral, os resultados apontam que choques negativos tem muito mais poder de desestabilizar o comportamento das exportacoes do setor no Brasil que choques positivos......The goal of this paper is to apply the linear and nonlinear error correction model to supply and demand for rubber exports and find elasticities to several variables. Two major contributions emerge from this research. The first is the use of the methodology of Markovian Switching model. The second is related to the results for the sector. For the supply curve is not possible to affirm the existence of the J effect. There is evidence of asymmetry in performance between states of retraction and growth in demand for exports, as well as between the duration of these states. This may reflect the influence of short-term elasticities, particularly in the case of income and prices. Overall, the results show that negative shocks have much more power to destabilize the exports sector in Brazil than positive shocks.

Determinantes da demanda brasileira por importação de arroz: uma abordagem não linear

The objective of this study is to analyze the behavior of the Brazilian demand for rough and milled rice between January 1995 and June 2010. The main aim is to test the adequacy of linear and non-linear relations that represent short and long-term variables on the demand. In general, long-term impacts from income and domestic price were the most determinants to imports and the rice can be seen as an inferior good. The price of imports contributes less than proportionately, while the importer seems to adjust the quantity with some lag. The correction of the model to short-term shocks was eased in monthly non-linear estimates, while it remained nearly stable in quarterly estimates. Finally, one can say that import cycles were strongly related to adverse climatic events, as well as to alterations in trade policy. The results draw attention to the influence of the government on the imports through pricing incentives to third parties – what proves to be helpful to overcome supply shortages in Brazil and Mercosur.

Ciclo e indicadores antecedentes na indústria do Rio Grande do Sul

This article has two principal goals. First, it compares three different techniques for dating cycles to determine peaks and through of industrial production in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The results show that between 1991-I and 2008-IV, this sector of the economy underwent five recessions. Two of these were short, lasting four quarters, and are associated with a higher exchange rate. Two other recessives cycles occurred in scenarios of international crises. Finally, the longest recession, lasting eight quarters, was related to the drought that affected the State in 2005. A second objective is the determination of leading indicators of industrial production. Starting with more than 200 series, we found that four are associated with cyclical periods.

BUSINESS CYCLES IN LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMY: 1950-2007

This article looks for the existence of common cycles in Latin America between 1950 and 2007. In this study, we used the technique of changing the Markovian regime, which in addition to univariate and multivariate formulations were tested bivariate arrangements. The main results indicate that it is possible to characterize the periods of growth and recessions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, especially in the two oil shocks in the beginning and the end of the 1970s; the crisis of balance of payments; and the problems of relative prices. Despite the existence of causality, bivariate models were tested between Argentina and Brazil, Chile and Mexico. The results suggest that smoothing of cycles, and the existence of movements of adjustment of economies to exogenous shocks that disrupted its dynamics of growth. It was also possible to identify differences in the speed of cyclical adjustment in each economy.

INDICADORES ANTECEDENTES PARA O RIO GRANDE DO SUL

This paper propose a composite leading indicators at monthly periodicity to represent the economic activity in the state of Rio Grande do Sul based on OECD methodology. We start with 456 different time series data and selected a set of ten with potential statistical and economic characteristics to anticipate the business cycle. The long-term indicators proved too unstable, but the medium-term one showed satisfactory performance anticipating the majority of turning points. The best results were seen in the composite indicator that combines medium and long term series.