Ilari Welling

Techno-economic evaluation of narrowband and broadband access network alternatives and evolution scenario assessment

The paper presents the main results obtained within the Research in Advanced Communications in Europe (RACE) project: 2087 TITAN regarding minimum-risk introductory routes for new narrowband and broadband services in the residential and small business market. The project developed a methodology and a tool for techno-economic evaluation of advanced narrowband and broadband telecommunications networks and services. Results from four extensive access network studies are presented. For the narrowband services, optical access and radio in the local loop have been assessed and compared to conventional copper layout in a greenfield environment. Access network upgrade strategies for emerging new broadband services have been evaluated in three studies, with technological options ranging from enhanced copper to hybrid-fiber-coax (HFC) and broadband passive optical networks. An extensive study on different broadband access network upgrade alternatives for public network operators (PNOs) were carried out, taking into account the diversity of conditions met today by European countries. In another study, the effect of competition In the access network was modeled assuming two main operators sharing the market. Broadband upgrade alternatives were evaluated for a new cable operator, competing with the dominant public network operator. In addition, video-on-demand (VoD) and Internet access upgrades have been analyzed. The paper demonstrates the viability of techno-economic studies for the access network, including in-depth analysis of the time-dependence of component cost, tariffs, service penetrations and market shares.

Technoeconomic evaluation of the major telecommunication investment options for European players

This article summarizes the major results from European projects drawing final conclusions and recommendations from the technoeconomic evaluation of three telecommunications market studies. It presents an analysis addressing a wide range of crucial telecommunications questions debated today. The business cases are: seamless mobile IP service provision, 3G mobile virtual network operators (MVNO), and fixed networks for broadband IP services. Extensive market analysis has been carried out for modeling demand, penetrations, and tariff structures for new mobile services and broadband services as an input to the business cases. Results show that over a 10-year study period, UMTS business is profitable in most cases for established operators with reasonable market share. The 3G MVNO business case is profitable under typical conditions when MVNO yields about 10 percent penetration, depending on the country type. Provision of fixed broadband services with a fiber to the curb solution is viable in dense urban and urban areas, but not in suburban environments, while fiber to the home is viable only in dense urban areas, despite the selection of protocol (ATM vs. Ethernet). Furthermore, broadband wireless access (BWA) systems, in dense urban and urban areas, show quite promising economic results

Business opportunities throughUMTS-WLAN networks

This article outlines the economic feasibility of mobile operators that combine nationwide mobility with 3G networks and hot spot coverage withWLANS, WLANS are based onHIPERLAN/2 architecture and theUMTS network exploitswCDMA/FDD technology. The evaluated business scenarios are focused on two different deployment areas, in terms of demographic characteristics and mobile penetration: a large and a small European country. The business case spans 2002 to 2011 withUMTS’ roll-out year in 2002 andWLAN’s in 2004, covering indoor hot-spot areas (stations, airports, stadiums, etc.) where demand is high. The demand for thisUMTS-WLAN roaming case is evaluated based on observations from Europe’s current mobile market and its evolution. Usage scenarios of different service packages corresponding to both residential and business markets have been taken into account. Direct investments and operational costs as well as revenue streams from traffic have been calculated. The methodology and the tool developed inACTS-TERA [1] andIST-TONIC [2] projects have been utilized for this case study. Economic conclusions have been derived, presented and discussed using key profitability factors. Profitability for all scenarios and business profiles has been calculated, presented and discussed. It includes a sensitivity analysis in order to identify the major opportunities and threats, for specific service sets as well as critical parameters and uncertainties. A wide audience from mobile operators and service providers to retail companies interested in entering the 3G market, can exploit this information.RésuméCet article souligne l’attrait pour les opérateurs mobiles que constitue la couverture des lieux publics à forte fréquentation par les réseauxRLAN en combinaison avec les réseaux 3G. les réseauxRLAN sont basés sur l’architectureHIPERLAN/2 et les réseauxUMTS sur la technologiewCDMA/FDD. Les scénarios économiques étudiés ont ciblé deux différents types de pays en terme de caractéristiques démographiques et de pénétration de la téléphonie mobile: un grand pays européen et un petit. Le plan d’affaire court sur 2002–2011 avec déploiementUMTS en 2002 et déploiementRLAN en 2004 pour la couverture des lieux publics à forte fréquentation tels que les gares, aéroports, stades, etc. où la demande est élevée. La demande dans ce modèle économique est estimée à partir de l’analyse du marché actuel de la téléphonie mobile en Europe et de son évolution. Les scénarios d’usage des différent services correspondant aux segments de marché entreprises et particuliers ont été pris en compte. Les investissements, le coût opérationnel ainsi que les revenus générés par le trafic ont été calculés. La méthodologie et l’outil développés dans les projets européensACTS-TERA etIST-TONIC ont été utilisés pour cette étude de cas. Les conclusions sont présentées avec une analyse de facteurs clés ainsi qu’une analyse de sensibilité incluant permettant d’identifier les principaux risques et opportunités.

Techno-economic evaluation of 3G & WLAN business case feasibility under varying conditions

This paper presents a techno-economic evaluation of combined UMTS and WLAN operator business case spanning years 2002-2011. The study is based on the work by the TONIC project under the European Union IST (Information Society Technologies) programme. The study provides a framework to compare all the main factors affecting the UMTS operators business case and evaluation of the WLAN profitability impact as complementary access technology. The example cases differ in country demographics and rollout plans relating to competition and demand situation and regulatory requirements.