Nils Kristian Elnegaard

Technoeconomic evaluation of the major telecommunication investment options for European players

This article summarizes the major results from European projects drawing final conclusions and recommendations from the technoeconomic evaluation of three telecommunications market studies. It presents an analysis addressing a wide range of crucial telecommunications questions debated today. The business cases are: seamless mobile IP service provision, 3G mobile virtual network operators (MVNO), and fixed networks for broadband IP services. Extensive market analysis has been carried out for modeling demand, penetrations, and tariff structures for new mobile services and broadband services as an input to the business cases. Results show that over a 10-year study period, UMTS business is profitable in most cases for established operators with reasonable market share. The 3G MVNO business case is profitable under typical conditions when MVNO yields about 10 percent penetration, depending on the country type. Provision of fixed broadband services with a fiber to the curb solution is viable in dense urban and urban areas, but not in suburban environments, while fiber to the home is viable only in dense urban areas, despite the selection of protocol (ATM vs. Ethernet). Furthermore, broadband wireless access (BWA) systems, in dense urban and urban areas, show quite promising economic results

Business opportunities of open broadband wireless access networks

this paper addresses an emerging business opportunity for utilising the fixed broadband access line (local loop) as a public resource. The approach foresees WiFi as an access for both private and public users with wireless gateways to the fixed network installed in private residences, business premises and telephone kiosks. By such means, authorized public users will be given access to the local loop infrastructure (ADSL, VDSL and Fibre) for mobile services including voice and broadband. A business case is outlined in this paper and several models utilising diverse market players are briefly described.

Long-term mobile data traffic forecasts for the Western European market

Mobile data traffic has since the introduction of mobile broadband increased exponentially. The paper gives an overview of the driving factors for the traffic growth. Long-term forecasting models for mobile broadband penetration of different subscription types combined with models for traffic forecasting per subscriptions are used to make busy hour traffic forecasts up to 2016. The forecasts are used for network dimensioning, upgrade planning and roll out of new technology.

Broadband access network competition-analysis of technology and market risks

The paper shows how risk methodology developed in the European projects TITAN (Tool for Introduction strategies and Techno-economic evaluation of Access Network) and OPTIMUM (Optimised Network Architectures for multimedia Services) can be applied for evaluation of Various broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators (PNOs) and cable operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts, market shares and cost predictions are analysed. The assessed technology options include broadband twisted pair modems, hybrid fibre coax networks and ATM-based passive optical networks. The results show that the uncertainty in the few market parameters contribute relatively more to the uncertainty in the final economic evaluation than the uncertainty in the large number of cost components.

Overview of risks in multimedia broadband upgrades

The paper gives an overview of the risks connected to a roll out of a broadband infrastructure. Specific attention is put on market risk, competition risk, regulatory risk, technology risk and operational risk. The risk methodology developed in the ACTS projects OPTIMUM and TERA is described. The paper shows how the risk methodology can be applied for evaluation of various network architectures. The paper also presents risk and techno-economic analyses of broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts and market shares are analysed.