Borgar Tørre Olsen

Techno-economic evaluation of narrowband and broadband access network alternatives and evolution scenario assessment

The paper presents the main results obtained within the Research in Advanced Communications in Europe (RACE) project: 2087 TITAN regarding minimum-risk introductory routes for new narrowband and broadband services in the residential and small business market. The project developed a methodology and a tool for techno-economic evaluation of advanced narrowband and broadband telecommunications networks and services. Results from four extensive access network studies are presented. For the narrowband services, optical access and radio in the local loop have been assessed and compared to conventional copper layout in a greenfield environment. Access network upgrade strategies for emerging new broadband services have been evaluated in three studies, with technological options ranging from enhanced copper to hybrid-fiber-coax (HFC) and broadband passive optical networks. An extensive study on different broadband access network upgrade alternatives for public network operators (PNOs) were carried out, taking into account the diversity of conditions met today by European countries. In another study, the effect of competition In the access network was modeled assuming two main operators sharing the market. Broadband upgrade alternatives were evaluated for a new cable operator, competing with the dominant public network operator. In addition, video-on-demand (VoD) and Internet access upgrades have been analyzed. The paper demonstrates the viability of techno-economic studies for the access network, including in-depth analysis of the time-dependence of component cost, tariffs, service penetrations and market shares.

Technoeconomic evaluation of the major telecommunication investment options for European players

This article summarizes the major results from European projects drawing final conclusions and recommendations from the technoeconomic evaluation of three telecommunications market studies. It presents an analysis addressing a wide range of crucial telecommunications questions debated today. The business cases are: seamless mobile IP service provision, 3G mobile virtual network operators (MVNO), and fixed networks for broadband IP services. Extensive market analysis has been carried out for modeling demand, penetrations, and tariff structures for new mobile services and broadband services as an input to the business cases. Results show that over a 10-year study period, UMTS business is profitable in most cases for established operators with reasonable market share. The 3G MVNO business case is profitable under typical conditions when MVNO yields about 10 percent penetration, depending on the country type. Provision of fixed broadband services with a fiber to the curb solution is viable in dense urban and urban areas, but not in suburban environments, while fiber to the home is viable only in dense urban areas, despite the selection of protocol (ATM vs. Ethernet). Furthermore, broadband wireless access (BWA) systems, in dense urban and urban areas, show quite promising economic results

Economics of residential broadband access network technologies and strategies

This article presents a techno-economic assessment of the evolution of the access network segment toward broadband data service delivery, including in-depth sensitivity analysis of key issues faced by the infrastructure providers. The line costs and payback periods of different access network technologies for infrastructure broadband upgrades are examined, subject to variation in parameters like the existing infrastructure, the broadband take rate, civil work costs, revenues, and rollout year. The work should enable establishment of guidelines for broadband infrastructure upgrade strategies.

PNO and CATV operator broadband upgrade technology alternatives: a technoeconomic analysis

Summary form only given. The paper presents technoeconomic analyses of broadband access network upgrade alternatives for public network operators (PNOs) and CATV operators in a competitive environment, with particular focus on the three alternative media for the same set of services: fiber, coaxial cable, and twisted pair copper. Network upgrade strategies, with technological options ranging from enhanced copper to hybrid fiber coax and broadband passive optical networks, are assessed on the basis of first installed costs, life cycle costs, revenues, and project net present value.

Risk analysis of residential broadband upgrade in a competitive and changing market

The article presents risk and techno-economic analyses of broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators and cable operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts and market shares are analyzed. The assessed technology options include broadband twisted pair modem, hybrid fiber coax networks, and ATM-based passive optical networks.

Broadband access network competition-analysis of technology and market risks

The paper shows how risk methodology developed in the European projects TITAN (Tool for Introduction strategies and Techno-economic evaluation of Access Network) and OPTIMUM (Optimised Network Architectures for multimedia Services) can be applied for evaluation of Various broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators (PNOs) and cable operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts, market shares and cost predictions are analysed. The assessed technology options include broadband twisted pair modems, hybrid fibre coax networks and ATM-based passive optical networks. The results show that the uncertainty in the few market parameters contribute relatively more to the uncertainty in the final economic evaluation than the uncertainty in the large number of cost components.

Life cycle costs and economical budget of optical and hybrid access networks

A methodology for the assessment of optical access networks for the residential and small business user is presented. Its objective is the calculation of the overall financial budget of any kind of access system and includes the discount system cost, operation, maintenance and powering costs, life cycle costs and the cash balance of the project. This enables the comparison of various optical or hybrid architectures through a global systems assessment and contributes to the identification of minimum-risk introduction strategies. The methodology and the tool developed are being validated by comparison to operating European networks and field trials.

Access network technologies

The selection of transmission medium or sets of transmission media and corresponding network topologies, node configurations and‘ system technologies are among the key strategic issues in the development of the access network. Capacity demand, service types, flexibility and costs are the main differentiators in the evaluation of the various access network architectures. In the following the term architecture denotes (a) specific combination(s) of transmission medium, network topology, node configuration and system technology.

Overview of risks in multimedia broadband upgrades

The paper gives an overview of the risks connected to a roll out of a broadband infrastructure. Specific attention is put on market risk, competition risk, regulatory risk, technology risk and operational risk. The risk methodology developed in the ACTS projects OPTIMUM and TERA is described. The paper shows how the risk methodology can be applied for evaluation of various network architectures. The paper also presents risk and techno-economic analyses of broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts and market shares are analysed.

Risk Methodology for Multimedia Projects Assessments

The paper describes a methodology for performing quantitative risk analysis of multimedia projects, as developed in the ACTS projects OPTIMUM and TERA. A framework for risk analysis is presented, encompassing key elements such as choice of probability density functions, correlation between important variables, simulation performance, methodology for cost predictions, demand forecasts, tariff predictions and associated uncertainties. The TERA tool for techno-economic evaluation is presented and the important steps in network evaluation identified. The paper examines how much the most critical factors contribute to the overall risk profile of telecommunications operator projects and studies the dependencies between variables.