Manuel Frondel

Economic Impacts from the Promotion of Renewable Energy Technologies - The German Experience

The allure of an environmentally benign, abundant, and cost-effective energy source has led an increasing number of industrialized countries to back public financing of renewable energies. Germanys experience with renewable energy promotion is often cited as a model to be replicated elsewhere, being based on a combination of far-reaching energy and environmental laws that stretch back nearly two decades. This paper critically reviews the current centerpiece of this effort, the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), focusing on its costs and the associated implications for job creation and climate protection. We argue that German renewable energy policy, and in particular the adopted feed-in tariff scheme, has failed to harness the market incentives needed to ensure a viable and cost-effective introduction of renewable energies into the countrys energy portfolio. To the contrary, the governments support mechanisms have in many respects subverted these incentives, resulting in massive expenditures that show little long-term promise for stimulating the economy, protecting the environment, or increasing energy security.

Identifying the Rebound - Evidence from a German Household Panel

Using a panel of household travel diary data collected in Germany between 1997 and 2005, this study assesses the effectiveness of fuel efficiency improvements by estimating the rebound effect, which measures the extent to which higher efficiency causes additional travel. Following a theoretical discussion outlining three alternative definitions of the rebound effect, the econometric analysis generates corresponding estimates using panel methods to control for the effects of unobservables that could otherwise produce spurious results. Our results, which range between 57% and 67%, indicate a rebound that is substantially larger than obtained in other studies, calling into question the efficacy of policies targeted at reducing energy consumption via technological efficiency.

Germany's Solar Cell Promotion: Dark Clouds on the Horizon

This article demonstrates that the large feed-in tariffs currently guaranteed for solar electricity in Germany constitute a subsidization regime that threatens to reach a level comparable to that of German hard coal production, a notoriously outstanding example of misguided political intervention. Yet, as a consequence of the coexistence of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the increased use of renewable energy technologies does not imply any additional emission reductions beyond those already achieved by ETS alone. Similarly disappointing is the net employment balance, which is likely to be negative if one takes into account the opportunity cost of this form of solar photovoltaic (PV) support. Along the lines of the international energy agency [IEA, 2007. Energy policies of IEA countries: Germany, 2007 review. International Energy Agency, OECD, Paris, p. 77], we recommend the immediate and drastic reduction of the magnitude of the feed-in tariffs granted for solar-based electricity. Ultimately, producing electricity on this basis is among the most expensive greenhouse gas abatement options.

Biodiesel: A New Oildorado?

Guaranteeing tax reductions and exemptions, the European governments intend to increase the share of biofuels in total EU fuel consumption to 5.75% by 2010. The financial support of this EU objective is frequently justified by expected positive environmental impacts, most notably the mitigation of climate change, and by favorable employment effects in the agricultural sector. This paper investigates the environmental and economic implications of the support of rapeseed-based biodiesel as a substitute for fossil diesel.Based on a survey of recent empirical studies, we find that the energy and greenhouse gas balances of this environmental strategy are clearly positive.Yet, its overall environmental balance is currently far from being unequivocally positive. Most importantly, biodiesel is not a cost-efficient emission abatement strategy. Thus, for the abatement of greenhouse gases,we recommend more efficient alternatives based on both renewable and conventional technologies.

Evaluating Environmental Programs: The Perspective of Modern Evaluation Research

Large-scale environmental programs generally commit substantial societal resources, making the evaluation of their actual effects on the relevant outcomes imperative. As the example of the subsidization of energy-saving appliances illustrates, much of the applied environmental economics literature has yet to confront the problem of proper attribution of effects to underlying causes on a convincing methodological basis. This paper argues that recent results in the econometrics and statistics literature on program evaluation could be utilized to advance considerably in this context. In particular, the construction of a credible counterfactual situation is at the heart of the formal statistical evaluation problem. Even when controlled experiments are not a viable option, appropriate approaches might succeed where traditional empirical strategies fail to uncover the effects of environmental interventions.

Germany's solar cell promotion: Dark clouds on the horizon

This article demonstrates that the large feed-in tariffs currently guaranteed for solar electricity in Germany constitute a subsidization regime that threatens to reach a level comparable to that of German hard coal production, a notoriously outstanding example of misguided political intervention. Yet, as a consequence of the coexistence of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the increased use of renewable energy technologies does not imply any additional emission reductions beyond those already achieved by ETS alone. Similarly disappointing is the net employment balance, which is likely to be negative if one takes into account the opportunity cost of this form of solar photovoltaic (PV) support. Along the lines of the international energy agency [IEA, 2007. Energy policies of IEA countries: Germany, 2007 review. International Energy Agency, OECD, Paris, p. 77], we recommend the immediate and drastic reduction of the magnitude of the feed-in tariffs granted for solar-based electricity. Ultimately, producing electricity on this basis is among the most expensive greenhouse gas abatement options.

Heterogeneity in the Rebound Effect – Further Evidence for Germany

Rebound effects measure the behaviorally induced off set in the reduction of energy consumption following efficiency improvements. Using both panel estimation and quantile-regression methods on household travel diary data collected in Germany between 1997 and 2009, this study investigates the heterogeneity of the rebound effect in private transport. With the average rebound effect being in the range of 57% to 62%, our results are in line with a recent German study by FRONDEL, PETERS, and VANCE (2008), but are substantially larger than those obtained from other studies. Furthermore, our quantile-regression results indicate that the magnitude of estimated fuel price elasticities - from which rebound effects can be derived - depends inversely on the households driving intensity: Households with low vehicle mileage exhibit fuel price elasticities, and hence rebound effects, that are significantly larger than those for households with high vehicle mileage.

Empirical assessment of energy-price policies: the case for cross-price elasticities

Abstract Evaluations of energy-price policies are necessarily based on measures of the substitution of energy and non-energy inputs. Facing a variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises which measure would be appropriate. Apparently, for a long time, this question has not been at issue: Allens elasticities of substitution (AES) have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. This papers main contribution is an instructive survey of the origin of substitution measures and of the trinity of empirical substitution elasticities—AES, cross-price elasticities, and the Morishima elasticities of substitution (MES)—with particular emphasis on their interpretations and the perspectives that will be captured by these measures. This survey clarifies why classical cross-price elasticities are to be preferred for many practical purposes. Berndt and Woods (Rev. Econom. Stat. 57 (1975) 259) frequently applied data set of US manufacturing is used to illustrate why assessments of energy-price policies would be better based on cross-price elasticities like the energy-price elasticity of capital, rather than on AES or MES.

Measuring Energy Security - A Conceptual Note

Along with the oil price, concerns about the security of energy supply have soared once again in recent years. Yet, more than 30 years after the OPEC oil embargo in 1973, energy security still remains a diffuse concept. This paper conceives a statistical indicator that aims at characterizing the energy supply risk of nations that are heavily dependent on energy imports. Our indicator condenses the bulk of empirical information on the imports of fossil fuels originating from a multitude of export countries as well as data on the indigenous contribution to the domestic energy supply into a single parameter. Applying the proposed concept to empirical energy data on Germany and the U.S. (1980-2004), we find that there is an inter-temporally increasing gap in the energy supply risk between both countries, with Germany suffering much more from a tensed energy supply situation today than the U.S.

Modelling energy and non-energy substitution: A brief survey of elasticities

Estimating the degree of substitution between energy and non-energy inputs is the key for any evaluation of environmental and energy policies. Yet, given the variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises as to which measure would be most appropriate. Apparently, Allens elasticities of substitution have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. In line with Frondel (2004), this paper argues that cross-price elasticities are preferable for many practical purposes. This conclusion is based on a survey of classical substitution measures, such as those from Allen, Morishima, and McFadden. The survey highlights the fact that cross-price elasticities are their essential ingredients.