Isabel Seifert

Development of FLEMOcs - a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector

Abstract The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application. Citation Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1302–1314.

Application and validation of FLEMOcs - a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector

Abstract The estimation of flood loss is difficult, especially in the commercial sector, because of its great inhomogeneity. However, the reliability of loss modelling is fairly unknown, since flood-loss models are scarcely validated. The newly developed Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was validated on the micro-scale using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Additionally, different meso-scale loss functions were compared. Meso-scale model application was undertaken in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood in Germany. Model results were compared with the results of three other loss models, as well as with official loss records. The micro-scale validation shows very good results, with no bias and mean absolute errors between 23 and 31%. The meso-scale validation indicates that FLEMOcs provides good results, especially in large areas with many affected companies where high losses are expected. Citation Seifert, I., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1315–1324.

A delphi method expert survey to derive standards for flood damage data collection.

For the purpose of flood damage analyses reliable, comparable, comprehensive, consistent, and up-to-date data are an indispensable need. Like in many other countries a database with this kind of datasets does not exist in Germany. To establish it, standards have to be set for flood damage data collection. We approached this problem by questioning experts about their information needs for flood damage analysis. This survey is done by applying a Delphi survey approach. The aptitude of the Delphi approach to assess, structure, and standardize expert knowledge is evaluated in this article. In the survey a panel of 55 experts working in the field of flood damage analysis for insurances, engineering companies/consultancy, public water management, and universities and other scientific institutions helped to identify common information needs. The multi-step Delphi method proved to reduce the deviation of answers thereby enabling consensual results and also enhanced the quality by modifying group answers in the direction of experience based answers. There was also a high level of congruence in information needs between experts from different fields of employment that allowed the derivation of common standards.

The reference installation approach for the estimation of industrial assets at risk

When natural disasters and extreme events such as storms, floods and earthquakes occur, it is not only people, residential buildings and infrastructure that are seriously affected, but also industry. Direct losses to installations as well as indirect losses, e.g., the interruption of production, can cause severe damage to companies and the economy as a whole. For a comparative and quantitative risk assessment, and being a prerequisite for emergency planning and crisis management (e.g., planning of mitigation measures), a financial appraisal of industrial assets at risk is needed. This paper presents the reference installation approach, which is a methodology that allows a consistent and transparent assessment of individual industrial asset values. The results of this bottom-up approach can be used for a detailed spatial mapping of industrial assets taking into account the characteristics of different sectors. [Received 9 May 2007; Revised 31 August 2007; Accepted 11 September 2007]

Flood precaution and coping with floods of companies in Germany.

During August 2002 and again in April 2006 the Elbe catchment was hit by floods. The flood in 2002 was an extreme event, e.g. with a return period of 150 years at the Dresden gauge. In comparison, the 2006 flood had only a return period of about 15 years at Dresden. This special situation enables a comparison of the preparedness of companies in the flood endangered federal state of Saxony after a long period of relatively low flood discharges and in 2006 just a few years after a severe flood event. Before August 2002, the flood risk awareness and flood preparedness of companies in Saxony was low. Only 25% of the companies had flood experience before August 2002 and for instance, only 12% of the companies had used their flood prone stories and areas in a flood adapted way. After 2002, many companies were motivated to undertake precautionary measures. On average, the percentage of companies which had undertaken different building precautionary measures was doubled in 2006. Additionally, the percentage of companies which had undertaken emergency measures before and during the flood events has increased from 67% in 2002 to 91% in 2006. It is an important challenge for the future to keep preparedness at a high level also without recurrent flood experiences.