J. Weinblatt

Using the Delphi process to analyze social policy implementation: A post hoc case from vocational rehabilitation

This study uses a Policy Delphi to discern differences in perspective among and within groups responsible for formulating and implementing vocational rehabilitation policy. Four groups of players were chosen for our analysis: government officials, academics, directors of rehabilitation centers, and the staff who interface with program participants. Significant differences were found between the groups regarding the relative importance of possible legislative goals. This suggests that the failure of vocational rehabilitation policy to promote a work agenda may be attributed to a lack of consensus among policy implementors. The Delphi technique could help policy planners understand the different perspectives within the implementation community, and hence craft more realistic legislation.

Sovereignty and Economic Development: The Case of Israel and Palestine

The future permanent economic agreement between Israel and Palestine will have to determine, among other things, the trade regime and whether there should be economic borders. The decision will have to satisfy goals of economic development, including a reduction in economic and social gaps between the two countries, and questions of sovereignty. We describe and analyse the evolution of the Palestinian economy before and since the Oslo agreements. Concerning the future agreement, we discuss the tradeoffs between sovereignty and prosperity and argue for the establishment, at first, of economic borders and a regime of less than full integration.

The Delphi process as a tool for decision making: The case of vocational training of people with handicaps☆

Abstract This paper discusses the need for consensus among groups and individuals who are involved in the training of people with handicaps. It is hypothesized that an a priori clear definition of the goals and objectives by decision makers who make the public funds available will provide guidelines to agencies and social workers who actually train the clients. Statements of goals and objectives may lead to more effective program planning and delivery of services. This investigation revealed that neither the legislators nor the executives in the federal government who are charged to oversee these programs were a priori aware about their goals and objectives, nor do they share similar preferences. The authors used a Delphi method to test whether consensus and consistency exist among the groups and within each group. The following groups were investigated: federal legislators, federal and state policy makers, directors of rehabilitation centers, and the staff who actually train the clients. The views of academicians, who are involved in analyzing rehabilitation programs, and teaching rehabilitation personnel are included to provide impartial independent assessment of the legislations goals and objectives. Lack of consensus in the hierarchical chain may be one of the factors that causes inefficient use of resources. Further, if the perception of the legislative goals along the chain varies from that of the legislators, rehabilitation actions that yield outcomes undesired by legislators may result. If it is assumed that legislators exhibit societys preferences, then actions by providers of services that do not coincide with the federal and state legislation will lead to solutions that are not as appealing to society. The study highlights different perceptions of the goals and objectives of the funds channeled to the rehabilitation of handicapped people. It recommends the use of more explicit guidelines and suggests the Delphi method as such a vehicle.

Crime Attraction and Deterrence in Small Communities: Theory and Results

This study analyzes the distribution of property crimes among small communities within a metropolitan area. We have tested whether a pool of criminals operating within a metropolitan area allocates its aggregate activity according to a rational pattern. The theoretical model based on utility maximization shows that, given a set of relatively reasonable assumptions, the number of offenses is positively related to the potential criminal gains and negatively related to police effectiveness. Community characteristics affect the level of criminal activity in each community, an hypothesis which is supported by the empirical results pre sented here. The concentration of wealth and commercial activities attracts crime, whereas the clearance rate deters crime.

LINDER'S HYPOTHESIS REVISITED : INCOME SIMILARITY EFFECTS FOR LOW INCOME COUNTRIES

In this paper we test whether a Linder effect exists in international trade generally, and in trade among, and between, developed and less developed countries in particular. We provide empirical evidence that, contrary to accepted views, the Linder effect can be found for both developed and less developed countries.

Purchasing power, interest rate parities and the modified Fisher effect in presence of tax agreements

Abstract This paper shows that in a world with different rates of inflation and taxation, in the presence of an international tax agreement, the simultaneous coexistence of the purchasing power parity mechanism, the interest rate parity mechanism, and the revised Fisher effect is impossible. The analysis reveals a possible inherent instability of interest rates and exchange rates generated by inflation. This instability is greater the larger the tax rate differentials among countries.

Do Government Transfers Crowd out Private Transfers to Non‐profit Organizations? The Israeli Experience

Considers the importance of private contributions to not‐for‐profit organizations (NPOs) in capitalistic welfare states but notes that the share of national income donated to NPOs is significantly lower in Israel than in the USA. Focuses on donations to NPOs in Israel and provides an empirical analysis of the interrelationship of private donations and Government transfers to NPOs. Describes the analytical background relating private contribution to Government activity, examining particularly the possibility that Government expenditure exerts a “crowding‐out” effect on private contributions. Concludes that, with special reference to Israel, Government budgets and private donations to NPOs should co‐exist, in order to maximise the sources devoted to social services or to obtain an adequate variety of such services.

An economic model of social sensitivity: The case of individual criminal behavior

In general, economists have modeled criminal behavior as a problem in time allocation under uncertainty. Their Friedman-Savage utility models have been based on the binomial probability distribution and then tested using aggregate data on crime rates and neglect the nonpecuniary aspects of crime. This paper overcomes the shortcomings of previous work. Specifically, criminal activity is modeled with an underlying geometric probability process and explicitly accounts for the moral and social compromise involved in becoming a criminal. The empirical model enables the quantification of the criminals moral and social sensitivity using data based on a consolidated file of police records and a cohort survey of criminals and noncriminals. On the basis of this unique data set, it is found that the included individual criminals are risk averse and that gang membership reduces social sensitivity.

Inflation and wage indexation with multiperiod contracts

This paper deals with the impact of wage indexation on the rate of inflation in two alternative institutional settings: simultaneous and overlapping multiperiod contracts. The results show that in the case of simultaneous contracts, the degree of indexation determines the timing of price changes but not its intercontract magnitude. When contracts are overlapping and uniformly distributed over time, indexation always increases the absolute rate of inflation and its variability.

A dynamic analysis of fiscal pressure and demographic transition

In this paper, the effects of demographic changes, particularly in the age structure of population, on government social expenditure is estimated. The results indicate that income elasticity of government social services is unitary in high income countries and above that level in low income countries, especially in education and welfare. The paper attempts also to forecast the pressure of these government outlays in four distinct countries characterized by different demographic parameters.