Jacobus Kamfer (Jakkie) Cilliers

Economics, governance and instability in South Africa

This paper examines the economic and social underpinnings of rising political instability in South Africa such as poverty, unemployment and inequality. The paper then reviews the patterns of violence across different categories before concluding with a brief analysis of the extent to which corruption, poor governance and lacklustre leadership exacerbate social turbulence. In this way, it presents the context for a separate paper, South African scenarios 2024, and a subsequent set of policy recommendations Rainbow at risk that set out the prospects and requirements for change.

Reducing Poverty in Africa: Realistic Targets for the Post-2015 MDGs and Agenda 2063

The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component of the post-2015 MDG process and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore this goal and finds that many African states are unlikely to make this target by 2030. In addition to the use of country-level targets, this paper argues in favour of a goal that would see Africa as a whole reducing extreme poverty to below 20% by 2030 (15% using 2011 purchasing power parity), and to below 3% by 2063.

Key to the Horn: Ethiopia's Prospects to 2030

Few African countries have developed as rapidly as Ethiopia over the past 25 years and that economic growth has also been paired with a sizeable expansion of service delivery. Nonetheless, Ethiopians continue to suffer from some of the lowest levels of access to basic services of any country in Africa – and indeed the world. This policy brief summarises the results from a more comprehensive study that explores options for the Government of Ethiopia and its development partners to advance human development and economic growth between now and 2030.