Jacques Henripin

The Financial Consequences of Population Aging

During the next five decades, Western populations will inexorably get older. Even if other phenomena are taken for granted, the lower the fertility, the more the aging process will be accentuated. One can expect large increases in public health costs and pension benefits that tax payers will bear, and that will be only partially compensated by a reduction in education cost. However, three measures could reduce these cost increases and the effect of each of them is estimated. As to the possibility that increasing productivity will check the growth of costs, the author has some reservations which challenge the conclusions of many former studies.

Women's employment and fertility in Québec.

In this study the relationship between womens employment and actual desired and expected fertility in the province of Quebec (Canada) is analyzed using 1971 survey data. Given the sharp decline in Catholic fertility over the past 20 years which implies a wide use of effective contraception and therefore rational family planning the microeconomic framework was used as an explanatory scheme. The findings indicate that economic factors are important determinants of employment and fertility but less so than factors associated with the life cycle. It is further shown that in all 3 models tested there is no reciprocal relationship between employment and fertility. A general conclusion that emerges from the findings is that in this sample of Catholic women a more traditional orientation that places greater importance on the mother role as opposed to the worker role is still prevalent. (authors modified)

Aging and the Necessity of a Radical Reform of the Canadian Pension System

Compared to the 29 other members of OECD, Canadian workers must satisfy themselves with a rather timorous public pension system, particularly those who earn a middle or higher income. This weakness is somewhat corrected by private pension organizations, but only a third of employees are covered by them. The author proposes that all workers have access to such programs and even that they are mandatory. There would be many of them; they would function on the basis of capitalization; they would be public or private. The choice of the capitalization financial principle is almost essential, due to future population aging. The author displays his convictions about these proposals, as well as practical ways to implement such a program.