James C. Cramer

Population growth and air quality in California

Demographers are often interested in the environmental impacts of population growth. I examine the impact of growth specifically on air quality in California. In recent decades, California has suffered from notoriously polluted air and has experienced rapid population growth. Despite the population .growth, air quality actually has improved since the early 1980s due to aggressive regulatory efforts. Using data for 56 counties, I analyze the contribution of population growth to trends in atmospheric emissions of five regulated pollutants from 1980 to 1990, controlling for trends in per capita income and regulatory efforts. The analysis is disaggregated by source of emissions and demonstrates that population growth is strongly associated with some sources of emissions but not with others. Thus, the overall impact of population growth depends upon the composition of production and consumption activities in each county. I also explore whether the trend in number of households predicts better than the trend in number of persons, and whether the impact of population growth depends upon the age structure or source of growth (immigration or domestic increase). Generally, these alternative specifications of population do not improve the models of atmospheric emissions.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Birthweight: The Role of Income and Financial Assistance*

This paper attempts to explain the differences in birthweight observed between blacks, white Anglos, Chicanos, and other racial and ethnic groups. The analysis focuses on the role of income and financial assistance from relatives and public programs. Using data from the NLS Youth Panel, I construct a causal model of birthweight containing exogenous social and demographic risk factors and intervening proximate determinants of birthweight. A substantial part of the gap in birthweight between white Anglos and other ethnic groups (especially blacks) can be explained by the unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the latter. On the other hand, blacks and other minorities smoke less and have other favorable proximate characteristics that depress differences in birthweight. When these proximate determinants are controlled, large ethic differences in birthweight remain unexplained by income and other sociodemographic factors.

Employment trends ofyoung mothers and the opportunity cost of babies in the United States

The central concept of microeconomic theories of fertility is opportunity cost—the product of wife’s employment lost due to childbearing and the value of her employment. This paper presents a model for analyzing opportunity cost using panel data. The average loss of employment attributable to a second- or higher-order birth, calculated at around age 2, is over 400 hours per year. This time cost represents an income loss of about

Social and engineering determinants and their equity implications in residential electricity use

1050 in 1969 dollars. Time cost is independent of such demographic factors as birth order and age of oldest sibling. Neither does time cost depend on husband’s wage rate or wife’s education or potential wage rate. This indicates that many microeconomic models of fertility have been seriously misspecified. The paper also compares results from static and dynamic models, explores possible problems due to simultaneity bias, investigates the relationship between changes in employment (including time cost) and initial employment level, and identifies the difficulties of theorizing about opportunity cost.

Lost in the ozone: Population growth and ozone in California

Energy conservation may occur because of either economic constraints or voluntary changes in values and lifestyle, with quite different social welfare implications. We examine the determinants of summer electricity use in single-family dwellings. Income and household size strongly affect energy use, while factors related to values and lifestyle are less important. A causal model approach is used to show how the social variables are related to energy use through intervening engineering/hardware variables.

Social impact assessment of regional plans: a review of methods and issues and a recommended process

Demographers usually study population and environment in preindustrial settings where “environment” means food, forest, or land. California, in contrast, is an advanced industrial state with rapid population growth and complex environmental stresses. In this paper I examine the effects of population growth on carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone, the principal ingredient of smog. Ozone and CO are monitored at numerous local sites throughout California. Wind currents are strong, so the level of ozone or CO at a site may depend on population size and other factors upwind as well as at that site. I use longitudinal data for a sample of sites to estimate panel models of trends in ozone and CO. Population growth is measured at three levels: site, county, and upwind; and trends in per capita income and air pollution regulations are controlled. Local population growth has a substantial impact on CO; in contrast, population growth at any level has a very small or even negative impact on ozone. The methodological and policy implications of this implausible finding are discussed.

Evaluation of a community-Based electricity load management program☆

Social impact assessment (SIA) is defined and related to other policy analysis techniques. Conceptual problems in conducting SIA are reviewed. Various SIA methods are identified and evaluated for their probable effectiveness in assessing regional plans. Regional planning conditions are identified and constraints to, and demands on, SIA are examined. A strategy for SIA is proposed which uses public inputs during cyclical planning iterations for efficiently identifying and assessing the most important social impacts.

Trends in infant mortality among racial and ethnic groups in California.

During the summer of 1980, Davis (CA) undertook a program to encourage residents to reduce peak electricity use. The program was initiated by the local utility company and carried a collective financial incentive: for every 1% reduction in peak electricity use, the utility would reward the city

Social factors and infant mortality: Identifying high-risk groups and proximate causes

10,000 up to a maximum of

STRUCTURAL-BEHAVIORAL DETERMINANTS OF RESIDENTIAL ENERGY USE: SUMMER ELECTRICITY USE IN DAVIS?

100,000. This paper discusses the program and evaluates its effects during the first experimental summer of operation.