James D. Goltz

Real-Time Loss Estimation as an Emergency Response Decision Support System: The Early Post-Earthquake Damage Assessment Tool (EPEDAT)

At the time of the Northridge earthquake, a number of new technologies, including real-time availability of earthquake source data, improved loss estimation techniques, Geographic Information Systems and various satellite-based monitoring systems, were either available or under consideration as emergency management resources. The potential benefits from these technologies for earthquake hazard mitigation, response and recovery, however, were largely conceptual. One of the major lessons learned from the January 17, 1994 earthquake was that these technologies could confer significant advantages in understanding and managing a major disaster, and that their integration would contribute a significant additional increment of utility. In the two and half years since the Northridge earthquake, important strides have been taken toward the integration of relatively discrete technologies in a system which provides real-time estimates of regional damage, losses and population impacts. This paper will describe the development, operation and application of the first real-time loss estimation system to be utilized by an emergency services organization.

Direct Economic Losses in the Northridge Earthquake: A Three‐Year Post‐Event Perspective

The Northridge earthquake will long be remembered for the unprecedented losses incurred as a result of a moderate-size event in a suburban area of Los Angeles. Current documented costs indicate that this event is the costliest disaster in U.S. history. Although it is difficult to estimate the full cost of this event, it is quite possible that total losses, excluding indirect effects, could reach as much as

The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

40 billion. This would make the Northridge earthquake less severe than the Kobe event, which occurred exactly one year after the Northridge earthquake, but adds a bit of realism that a Kobe-type disaster is possible in the U.S. This paper attempts to put into perspective the direct capital losses associated with the Northridge earthquake. In doing so, we introduce the concept of hidden and/or undocumented costs that could double current estimates. In addition, we present the notion that a final estimate of loss may be impossible to achieve, although costs do begin to level off two years after the earthquake. Finally, we attempt to reconcile apparent differences between loss totals for two databases tracking similar information.

Public Response to a Catastrophic Southern California Earthquake: A Sociological Perspective

In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of shaking intensity, with peak ground velocities of 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 km2. A custom HAZUS®MH analysis and 18 special studies were performed to characterize the effects of the earthquake on the built environment. The scenario posits 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. Approximately 1,600 fires are ignited, resulting in the destruction of 200 million square feet of the building stock, the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes. Fire contributes

Use of loss estimates by government agencies in the Northridge earthquake for response and recovery

87 billion in property and business interruption loss, out of the total

The California Earthquake Advisory Plan: A History

191 billion in economic loss, with most of the rest coming from shake-related building and content damage (

The ShakeOut Scenario

46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages (

Southern California Seismic Network: Caltech/USGS Element of TriNet 1997-2001

24 billion). Emergency response activities are depicted in detail, in an innovative grid showing activities versus time, a new format introduced in this study.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE KOBE EARTHQUAKE

This paper describes a hypothetical scenario of public response to a large regional earthquake on the southern section of the San Andreas Fault. Conclusive social and behavioral science research over decades has established that the behavior of individuals in disaster is, on the whole, controlled, rational, and adaptive, despite popular misperceptions that people who experience a disaster are dependent upon and problematic for organized response agencies. We applied this knowledge to portray the response of people impacted by the earthquake focusing on actions they will take during and immediately following the cessation of the shaking including: immediate response, search and rescue, gaining situational awareness through information seeking, making decisions about evacuation and interacting with organized responders. Our most general conclusion is that the actions of ordinary people in this earthquake scenario comprised the bulk of the initial response effort, particularly in those areas isolated for lengthy periods of time following the earthquake.

Real-Time Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: A Report on Mexico City's Sistema de Alerta Sismica

The rapid availability of estimated shaking intensities, dollar losses and social impacts following the Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994, proved to be a valuable resource to the California Office of Emergency Services (OES) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in response and recovery decision making. These estimates were used to supplement standard reconnaissance procedures and expedite decisions which in previous disasters were delayed until observational assessments had been completed. Based on extensive, in-depth interviews with state and federal emergency managers, this paper will focus on how these estimates were used in making decisions. Methods and models employed in generating estimates will be addressed only briefly. Discussion will include an assessment of the potential benefits and pitfalls of near real-time loss estimation in emergency management.