James P. F. Gordon

Portfolio Flows Into India; Do Domestic Fundamentals Matter?

This paper analyzes the factors affecting portfolio equity flows into India using monthly data. Flows to India are small compared to other emerging markets, but seem to be relatively less volatile. They also seem to be quite resilient. The paper shows that portfolio flows are determined by both external and domestic factors. Among external factors, LIBOR and emerging market stock returns are important, while the primary domestic determinants are the lagged stock return and changes in credit ratings. In quantitative terms, both external and domestic factors are found to be about equally important.

Nonresident Deposits in India : In Search of Return?

This paper analyzes trends in the accumulation of NRI (nonresident Indian) deposits and investigates the determinants of these inflows. It finds that monthly deposit flows have been quite stable since the 1991 crisis; nevertheless, there have been occasions when monthly flows turned negative in the short run, coinciding with adverse domestic or external events. Econometric analysis shows that the NRI deposits are influenced by standard risk and return variables. In particular, NRI deposits respond positively to changes in relative interest rates on NRI deposits and LIBOR; negatively to political and geopolitical uncertainties, such as the government resigning in mid-term, and tensions on Indias borders; and negatively to adverse external events, such as the Asian crisis.

Structural Funds and the 1992 Program in the European Community

Equity and efficiency justifications are found for the Community’s Structural Funds which are discovered to be carefully targeted at depressed regions, albeit with some horizontal inequities. If Fund transfers displace national assistance, then they may be misallocated by being tied to regional indicators. The recent doubling in size enhances the Funds’ ability to assist losers from the creation of a single European market in 1992. However, they fall short of constituting a safety net since they provide little automatic assistance to regions suffering negative shocks. Compensation of losers from the 1992 program would require an overhaul of the present allocation system, if not a further increase in scale.

The Effect of Increasing Government Employment on Growth: Some Evidence from Africa

In contrast to the experience in industrial countries, government sectors in a number of African countries grew rapidly in relative size through the 1980s and early 1990s, implying a differential between measured GDP growth and growth of private sector activity. In these countries, the government sector was also an important source of employment growth. Leaving aside issues of crowding out, boosting growth in this way raises questions of fiscal sustainability. It also urges caution in interpreting growth performance.

The Determinants and Efficiency of Local Authority Spending in England

This paper analyzes the efficiency and determinants of local authority expenditure in England during 1989/90. The capitalization of local spending in house prices is used as a test of efficiency, and it is found that local services are in general excessive from this standpoint. The determinants of local government spending are then estimated and local incomes, the tax price faced by the electorate, and local party control are found to be significant. Application of the analysis to the recently introduced local government reforms suggest small effects on the overall level of spending.